Friday, June 25, 2010

Weekend Update: 4th Week of June

Halfway through the Summer movie season, and we still have little to show for it. We may have gotten the best and most perfectly made films of the year from Pixar, but what else is new? That happens almost every year, so it shouldn't be much of a surprise anymore. This week, we get right back to disappointment, with Grown Ups and Knight and Day. Lets start with the Adam Sandler comedy, and I'm going to be refreshingly frank in translating the fact that this film was never going to be good. Adam Sandler doesn't make smart movies anymore, and this film, despite its name, isn't likely to treat the audience like adults.

I know that there are more comedians in it than just him, but he's the only one I have the smallest shred of respect for, and that comes from Funny People. Other than that, I hate him. I'm going to say that the film should take in $25 million this weekend, and negative word of mouth should kill the comedy. On to Knight and Day, the Tom Cruise/Cameron Diaz spy thriller/comedy. I don't have nearly as much contempt for this film as I do for Grown Ups, but the word "disappointing" still comes to mind. The film already failed to bring in audiences on its opening day, only taking in $3 million. The Disneynature documentaries released on Earth Day pitched better opening days than that.

For the weekend, I expect the film to take in around $10 million, and then go on to make around $20 million in total. Now that we've settled that, lets talk about Toy Story 3, which will probably shoot a better second weekend than most openings for Pixar films. Positive word of mouth has been carrying the film throughout the week, and will likely continue to do so during the rest of the summer. With that, I expect a small decrease of around 30% this weekend, leading to a $70-80 total. The weekend definitely won't top the same one last year, when Transformers 2 destroyed the box office with a collosal debut.

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