Weekend Update: 3rd Week of June

Lets face it. Toy Story 3 will be, and fully deserves to be the biggest hit of the summer. Think of the fact that this weekend the film will probably rake in as much as $100-120 million. Then think of the staying power of most Pixar films. Last year, Up brought in just $68 million in its first weekend, then went on to get $293 million in total. Even before the big 3D craze, Finding Nemo brought in $70 million opening weekend and then became the highest grossing Pixar film in history with $339 million. I can see Toy Story 3 beating that total easily.

However, we must remember what the film is going up against. Lets start with parents who, even though they will no doubt love the movie, may feel trepidation in bringing their kids along. You may not have noticed yet, but the film is pretty damn dark. Think of the toy's fears of being abandoned, and then think of their fears of death. Then again, what child doesn't want to see that sort thing. I think you might remember last year when Coraline scared the bejezzus (technical term) out of kids and parents alike, and still became the sleeper hit of the first quarter of the year. Kids really enjoy good and enjoyable movies, and the fact that they're frightening only endears them to those movies.

The other problem the film faces is the raising of prices for 3D. There's been a noticable fall in 3D's popularity since theatres changed the price of admission. It started when How to Train Your Dragon brought in only $43 million opening weekend, despite stellar reviews. The film still went on to become a success and it earned the greenlight for a sequel. Even after that, Clash of the Titans underperformed with $61 million opening weekend, as did Shrek 4 with $70 million. On the other hand, Titans had hugely negative reviews for both the film's quality, and the low quality of the 3D, and Shrek had to rebuild steam after the previous film failed critically.

Toy Story 3 follows up two of the best animated films ever made, and is one in and of itself. We'll have to see how hard these facts come down on the film's box office when tallies come in for the film's grosses on friday. For now, I'm sticking with my guess of $120 million opening weekend, although I hope it gets more than that. In total I'd like to see the film get $400 million. It deserves it, and it could help keep the film afloat until awards season.

So what about the other films this weekend? Jonah Hex will fail in comparison, probably bringing in under $10 million. Kung Fu Kid will hold some of its audience, but not a lot. I'm gonna bet that it'll rake in about $24 million this weekend. A-Team should certainly fall considerably and take in just $12 million. Expect the weekend overall to blast away the same weekend last year when The Proposal came out to $33 million.