Oscar 2010: As It Should Be

The Oscar season has really calmed down in terms of tension and excitement, and I at the moment it would be pretty easy to take a solid guess at who would win. As for the nominees, I think we've gotten pretty well settled on who will make the cut. The Social Network, The King's Speech, True Grit, Inception, and Toy Story 3 are all locks based on critical acceptance and their success with the precursors. As a matter of fact, in a field of five nominations, those would be the films most would predict. Inception and Toy Story 3 are closest to the edge of that range, and there would be some serious doubt on whether or not they'd make it in if we were still operating on a five nomination basis.

The Fighter is also a pretty safe bet on being nominated, but it would have a much tougher time being one of five nominees. If I have an enemy in this race, that would probably be it, as I find it too familiar, even if the performances are spectacular. Black Swan's chances are slightly better, and I would be surprised if the nominations were announced and Darren Aronofsky's film was not in the pot. 127 Hours and The Kids Are All Right are pretty unanimous nominations, though neither of them have gotten much awards buzz recently so that's slightly up in the air.

Another Year isn't really much of a contender anymore, so the two films in a dog fight for the final slot are The Town and Winter's Bone. My guess and favoritism lies with latter, but they both have shown strong presence in the precursors. However, by now we're far past the argument of who will be nominated, and we're in the heat of who should ultimately win. A lot of people are hoping for a backlash against The Social Network, and after seeing it a few more times, I think that would be horrible. The film is fully deserving of the honor, and I certainly wouldn't be in opposition. I'm not sure if I'd say that it's my horse in this race, but I definitely have a massive fondness for it. The King's Speech seemed like it was the main competitor in the Best Picture race, but it has only secured a few precursors and it'll take something huge to change the tides.

True Grit doesn't have much chance outside the Supporting Actress and Cinematography races, and it deserves to do well in those races. I wouldn't count it as a horrible thing if it went home with only two. It would be a tragedy if it went home with nothing at all, like Up in the Air did last year. It's not fitting of such an authentic and textured western to earn nothing in return. I can't say I'm one of the people who thinks that Toy Story 3 should be considered more of a frontrunner in the top race, because I just don't think we've reached that point of acceptance for it to have a chance. As for Inception, I don't think Christopher Nolan will get his major win with this piece. He'll probably do much better in 2012 with The Dark Knight Rises.

If I have a horse in this race, it would be the unlikely contender of Black Swan. I've warmed up to the film so immensely since I first saw it. I guess I cherished the opportunity to pay complete attention to the film more than I did when my brother was chattering off for the entire duration. It would be something beautiful if this film ended up winning the main race, and I think that's the film I will be most promoting in the coming weeks. The odds are placed against it, but it was an uphill battle from the moment it premiered at Venice Film Festival. It's practically secured a nomination at this point, and I don't believe it's about to deflate, so there's nowhere else to go but up. So, while I adjust my Oscar predictions page to include winner predictions, please let me know what you think. Who is your horse in this race, and who is your chosen enemy?