Sorry I didn't get this to you guys yesterday, but I had a lot more on my plate than I anticipated. Nonetheless, we have plenty to discuss today in terms of the acting categories, which are often the vital organs of the Academy Awards. The technical awards can be slid over, but the acting races are so closely observed. There's bound to be more than one disappointment in the books. The Supporting Actor category is perhaps the least competitive of the bunch, because everybody knows at this point that Christian Bale is going to take the award for The Fighter. It's almost unnecessary to have anyone else be nominated, and yet those slots still have to be filled.Geoffrey Rush was the original frontrunner in the category for his work in The King's Speech, but once Bale entered the ring, there was little hope for Rush taking the win, but he should still get a nod. Mark Ruffalo was never anything more than a contender looking for a nomination for his work in The Kids Are All Right, and by that standard he should get it. This is where things get really tricky. Jeremy Renner entered the game later in the year for his work in The Town, and that's really the only outstanding aspect of that film, so he deserves a nod. That leaves only one major slot to fill, and in most ways it's the major battle between Andrew Garfield's work in The Social Network and John Hawkes' bravura performance in Winter's Bone.
Personally, I'd go for John Hawkes to win the category in a second, but that's not going to happen. I shudder at the idea of him not taking a nomination at all. As much as I love Garfield's sentimental and appealing work as Eduardo Saverin, he's just outside the arena in this case.One of the less predictable races, Supporting Actress, the entire race and its outcome depends on who is nominated. Amy Adams and Helena Bonham Carter are pretty solid bets to get nominations for The Fighter and The King's Speech respectively. Melissa Leo is in a major fight to win the award, but could so easily be thwarted by Hailee Steinfeld. It all depends on whether Steinfeld will be nominated in the lead or supporting race for True Grit, because that's still up for debate. If nominated in the supporting race, Leo has some major competition to go up against, a sad statement for such an esteemed actress. If nominated for lead, Leo should take the win, and Steinfeld walks away with some sort of consolation prize for her effort. As for who will round out the category, it's between Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom and Mila Kunis for Black Swan. I'd prefer the latter, and that's who I'm going to bet on. Of course, if Steinfeld makes the cut for lead, they could both make it in.
So my predictions really depend on the Academy understating Steinfeld's talent more than the rest of us, because I have her down for Supporting Actress. In the lead category, probably one of the most competitive in years, Natalie Portman is the one to beat, and there will be massive tears if she doesn't win. All the simplistic and pure dialogue in the film is spoken so innocently and yet so dangerously. The
original frontrunner was Annette Bening, but as soon as Portman came into the fray for Black Swan, she just seemed to fade away. She'll still get a nomination, as will Jennifer Lawrence for her work in Winter's Bone, but I doubt that either of them have what it takes to take it all.That leaves the two remaining slots to fill, and there are only two that I can see filling those slots. I still haven't seen Blue Valentine, despite how easy it is for me to do so, but I'll still bet that Michelle Williams will get that nomination for her work. As for the final slot, it most definitely should go to Nicole Kidman for her wonderfully understated work as Becca in Rabbit Hole. I just can't say anything bad about her performance, because I can't find anything bad about it. So, if Steinfeld ends up being bumped up to the big leagues, the woman I expect most to be knocked off the list is Michelle Williams, but it's impossible to know for sure. Do people go for what is right, or do they decide on what is easy?
The final competition we're covering today is
the Best Actor race, and the man at the head of the pack continues to be Colin Firth for The King's Speech. He deserves to win for being beat out by Bridges last year, so it's just another matter of filling in the rest of the slots. It's pretty straightforward that James Franco and Jesse Eisenberg will both be nominated for their noticeably bravura performances in 127 Hours and The Social Network respectively. I still have this feeling in the back of my mind that Eisenberg will instigate a come-from-behind victory, but I don't want him to. Jeff Bridges is in for True Grit, which leaves one spot for people to debate on. The man I'd most bet on making the cut would be Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine, but the man I most want to make it in is Aaron Eckhart for Rabbit Hole. The man is currently one of my favorite actors, very much in the same way that Fringe is one of my favorite shows. Not enough people appreciate either of them, and so I especially promote them for more accolades. That pretty much covers everything, so tomorrow will be just plain insanity as I go head first into gathering my final predictions for the nomination announcement on Tuesday morning. For my predictions as they are updated over the next day or two, head to the Oscar Predictions page.
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