Oscar 2010 Predictions: Supporting Actress

Not nearly the most difficult race to predict, but also not a walk in the park. This was really a banner year for supporting female performances, and in fact more so than lead female performances. You can tell by the sheer amount of talent that wasn't nominated here, and yet should have been. Mila Kunis was did a fantastic job with what she was given in Black Swan, but the supporting gal that really stole the show for me was Barbara Hershey as Nina's overbearing mother. It's really one of the most tragic performances of the year, embodying somebody who reluctantly gave up her own career to become a mother, and as such is now realizing how she hasn't prepared her daughter properly for the real world. When she's looking up at Nina at the close of the film, you can see it in her eyes.

I could go on about Rooney Mara's stellar-but-short performance in The Social Network, Marion Cotillard's fascinating, multifaceted, and underrated work in Inception, or Mia Wasikowska's sweet and fragile overlooked performance in The Kids Are All Right, but I pretty much just summed them up in a run-on sentence. If there's any actress nominated here who is undeserving of any recognition, it is Helena Bonham Carter for The King's Speech. Don't get me wrong, because I've loved plenty of her past work, but she's the plainest and most uninteresting of the big three characters in the film. You can tell that from the clothing she wears, and you can tell that from her performance. I much preferred her latest turn as Bellatrix Lestrange in Deathly Hallows: Part 1.

I still haven't seen Animal Kingdom, for which Jacki Weaver is nominated, and I've been putting it off because the only ads for the film have been showing off this creepy and demented image of her. Maybe that's one of the big appeals of it, but I'll have to check it out sometime before this Sunday. Amy Adams is up for her work in The Fighter, which almost immediately appealed to me after I saw it. I gather that that's the way it was for most people, because she had such a trashy-yet-sexy attitude about her that seemed pretty authentic, and most people could imagine a girl like that in their neighborhood.

The big fight is between Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit and Melissa Leo for The Fighter, and I've been pretty one-sided for most of this race. At the end of last year, I absolutely loved Steinfeld's brave and beautiful performance, and I still believe that she's the best actress in contention here. However, as for the person who I believe will win and absolutely deserves to win, I have to go with Melissa Leo for The Fighter. After going back to the film, she's really got that ferocity and expression that almost matches her up with Bale's work. That's not even to mention the work she's done in the past. She's been unrewarded for so long, and that should end on Sunday night. If not, then she'll turn in another bravura performance and we'll be right back here again.

1. Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
2. Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
3. Amy Adams (The Fighter)
4. Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
5. Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)

Will & Should Win: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Potential Upset: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Should Have Been Nominated: Barbara Hershey (Black Swan) OR Rooney Mara (The Social Network) OR Marion Cotillard (Inception) OR Mia Wasikowska (The Kids Are All Right)

Awards 2010: Screen Actor's Guild (SAG) Winners

It's amazing how the entire Oscar race can take a complete U-turn in the matter of only six days, not to mention how it could so totally head for calamity. The King's Speech woefully won Best Ensemble at last night's Screen Actor's Guild Awards, and I am just as despondent as I was when it was the DGA on Friday. That was the sole suprise and upset of the night, and I'm only happy about in the slightest way possible. Firth, Rush, Pierce, and Gambon deserve it, but there were so many better ensemble casts this year. It just feels like nobody is thinking logically about who deserves these awards, and they're just handing them out to The King's Speech for no reason. I didn't actually watch the telecast, so I can't really comment on it at all.

Best Ensemble: The King's Speech
Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Best Actress: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)

What's Next?: Best Supporting Actress

The Oscar nominations were announced Tuesday, and they brought the same serving of unusual surprises that we expect from them. I've already gone over what I happy and disappointed about, so that's not what this series is about. This is looking beyond the night of the ceremony and into the horizon at what the actors, actresses, writers, and directors will be doing in the coming months. It's a tad bit difficult, because the actors don't always make plans right away. For the most part, however, they usually have one or two films already down the pike for that year.

Amy Adams, nominated for the role of Charlene in The Fighter, has two films ahead of her this year, but both radically different in approach. One is a supporting role in On the Road, a film about a young man setting out on the roads and railways of America. The film is directed by Walter Salles (The Motorcycle Diaries), and written by Jose Rivera (Letter to Juliet). Without having seen any footage from the film, I doubt that I'll be standing in line to see it. On the other hand, Adams is also starring alongside Jason Segal (Forgetting Sarah Marshall) in the highly-anticipated family film, The Muppets. She's not likely to grab another nomination anytime soon, but she's got a pretty solid post-Oscar plan ahead of her.

Helena Bonham Carter has only one film to look forward to this year, but seeing as it's Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, I don't think she'll be too torn up over it. Melissa Leo always keeps a packed schedule of films each year, which could potentially aid in her getting another nomination this year. For one thing, she's got the Kevin Smith horror feature Red State on the way, even if it'll take a hell of a long time to get here. She's appearing in the title role of a mystery project called Francine, and taking a starring role in another mystery project called Seven Days in Utopia from first time director Matt Russell. No word on if there's any relation whatsoever to The Fighter director David O. Russell, but I wouldn't count on it

The other two actresses in the category don't yet have anything on the table in the foreseeable future, although I suspect Hailee Steinfeld should be getting an offer or two once she wins the Academy Award next month. The fifth slot was a competition between Mila Kunis and Jacki Weaver, and the latter was the ultimate victor. Though it's not quite related, Kunis is next slotted to appear in Friends with Benefits, the Black Swan twin of Portman's No Strings Attached. As for Jacki Weaver, we have no idea what she's doing next, but there are some ideas out there.

Images (In Order): Melissa Leo in Red State; Amy Adams in The Muppets

Oscar 2010: Final Nomination Predictions (Part 2: Acting Categories)

Sorry I didn't get this to you guys yesterday, but I had a lot more on my plate than I anticipated. Nonetheless, we have plenty to discuss today in terms of the acting categories, which are often the vital organs of the Academy Awards. The technical awards can be slid over, but the acting races are so closely observed. There's bound to be more than one disappointment in the books. The Supporting Actor category is perhaps the least competitive of the bunch, because everybody knows at this point that Christian Bale is going to take the award for The Fighter. It's almost unnecessary to have anyone else be nominated, and yet those slots still have to be filled.

Geoffrey Rush was the original frontrunner in the category for his work in The King's Speech, but once Bale entered the ring, there was little hope for Rush taking the win, but he should still get a nod. Mark Ruffalo was never anything more than a contender looking for a nomination for his work in The Kids Are All Right, and by that standard he should get it. This is where things get really tricky. Jeremy Renner entered the game later in the year for his work in The Town, and that's really the only outstanding aspect of that film, so he deserves a nod. That leaves only one major slot to fill, and in most ways it's the major battle between Andrew Garfield's work in The Social Network and John Hawkes' bravura performance in Winter's Bone. Personally, I'd go for John Hawkes to win the category in a second, but that's not going to happen. I shudder at the idea of him not taking a nomination at all. As much as I love Garfield's sentimental and appealing work as Eduardo Saverin, he's just outside the arena in this case.

One of the less predictable races, Supporting Actress, the entire race and its outcome depends on who is nominated. Amy Adams and Helena Bonham Carter are pretty solid bets to get nominations for The Fighter and The King's Speech respectively. Melissa Leo is in a major fight to win the award, but could so easily be thwarted by Hailee Steinfeld. It all depends on whether Steinfeld will be nominated in the lead or supporting race for True Grit, because that's still up for debate. If nominated in the supporting race, Leo has some major competition to go up against, a sad statement for such an esteemed actress. If nominated for lead, Leo should take the win, and Steinfeld walks away with some sort of consolation prize for her effort. As for who will round out the category, it's between Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom and Mila Kunis for Black Swan. I'd prefer the latter, and that's who I'm going to bet on. Of course, if Steinfeld makes the cut for lead, they could both make it in.

Awards 2010: Black Film Critics Circle

As much as I still think David Fincher deserves to win Best Director, it looks like most of the heat is going towards the Best Picture race for The Social Network. However, I wouldn't be opposed to Darren Aronofsky getting the award for Black Swan when the time comes. It seems that the two races have become rather routine over the past few years. If a film wins one, it will likely win the other. They almost go hand in hand. I'm more than ready to shake things up. Speaking of shaking things up, Melissa Leo is becoming a little overrated to tell you the truth. Her performance in The Fighter just seemed to come second to Christian Bale's, and he's the one getting the most attention. See the winners after the jump!

Film Review: The Fighter

I've had a long running tussle with The Fighter, and even now I'm still at war with it. If I were to make predictions for the Oscars based on my views alone, I would not place this one in the nominations. On the other hand, I do not for a second believe this to be a bad film. As a matter of fact, it's a pretty great one. For those who weren't aware, The Fighter is the story of "Irish" Micky Ward, a boxer who has been trained by his brother Dickie for years, and his manager has always been his overbearing and counterproductive mother. Things haven't been going well for him lately, and his family has been holding him back his whole life.

A few things influence Micky in changing his life, including the entrance of hot bar girl Charlene, who really believes in him and just doesn't like his family. Then there's Dickie's descent into drug use, and the negative ramifications it has for the entire family. Micky's reputation is damaged, simply based on the fact that he's his brother. There's a lot of emotions going on, and it's actually inspirational. It's a hardcore underdog film at heart, and that is always something to root for. It felt a lot like Million Dollar Baby in respects to the family aspect of it, but it had a forward momentum it could keep to.

This film doesn't really bring us anything truly new that we haven't seen before. The roads it treads have already been set upon, but the execution of it all is completely original. Towards the end of the film, we go from a rather quiet setting straight to a furious Christian Bale, and it's one of the most aggressive cuts I've ever seen. Talking of which, the acting in this film is absolutely spectacular, with Christian Bale being at the top of his game. During the ending credits, we get a clip of the real Micky and Dickie, and while Mark Wahlberg just did his usual acting style, it's clear that Bale spent a lot of time nailing down Dickie's mannerisms and such. It's just uncanny, and it's the most Oscar worthy performance from a supporting actor this year.

The other members of the cast range from fine to phenomenal. Like I said, Mark Wahlberg isn't anything new, but I could still stand him being onscreen. Melissa Leo does a great job as the mother who wants to control everything in Micky's life, but ultimately cares more about her other children. Amy Adams is stunning, because she's still a white trash sort of girl, and she's got a bit of a tummy on her, but she's a sexy bitch with a heart of gold. Sure it's been done before, but what in this film hasn't? The real life Mickey O'Keefe plays himself in this film, which adds a whole lot of credibility to the enterprise, and he obviously does a great job of it. He lived it. He knows better than anyone how it felt. This film could've been rather pedestrian, but thanks to the powerful supporting cast, The Fighter turns out to be an inspirational film with some proper grit tacked onto it. It's not a truly great film, but it's a good one.

B+

Awards 2010: Screen Actors Guild Nominations

The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominations yesterday, and that The Town was probably the biggest thing that I missed. There were quite a few notable occurrences, such as being left out of Best Ensemble Cast, though it has been playing well in that category during critics awards. John Hawkes deservedly made it into the Supporting Actor race for Winter's Bone, though it was at the loss of Andrew Garfield who was snubbed. I'm surprised Prince of Persia didn't make the stunt ensemble, because that was one of the only outstanding qualities that film had. Also worth noting, Mila Kunis is getting some heat going for her turn in Black Swan. This could lead to a bigger nomination this January. As for my guesses at who will win, they are, in order of the categories below, The Kids Are All Right, Colin Firth, Annette Bening, Christian Bale, Melissa Leo, and Inception.

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Robert Duvall (Get Low)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Hilary Swank (Conviction)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE
Green Zone
Inception
Robin Hood

For Your Anticipation: He's A Junkbag

I have made no illusions about my uneasiness when it comes to accepting The Fighter as a true Oscar contender. I never had a problem accepting Christian Bale, Amy Adams, or Melissa Leo as acting contenders, but as far as the film itself, I've never been easy enough to please. I still have massive problems with Mark Wahlberg and his acting style, but these clips give me the sort of impression that he's basically going to be played as a gullible sort of idiot who's living in a dream world, rather than an inspirational sort of figure. I doubt he'll ever get any real Oscar contention, but that's kind of the point. This will be a showcase of the supporting acting talent, and they definitely make me uncertain about who I'm siding with in this fight.

Awards 2010: Washington D.C. Film Critics Award Winners

The critics of Washington D.C. have spoken, and their choices are actually rather agreeable. There's always some sort of resistance in anticipation of the winners of these awards, but when the winners are announced, it somehow doesn't matter. The critics continue to opt with David Fincher and The Social Network, and this could put them in place to win Best Picture come February. Luckily, people are still in agreement that Colin Firth is deserving of a win. Meanwhile, Jennifer Lawrence took the Best Actress category, and I become a bit more tempted towards watching Winter's Bone again sometime this week. Still, where is the love for Annette Bening? I do hope she doesn't go home empty handed this season.

I'm still not quite ready to embrace The Fighter yet, and my indeed change my tone after I see it in two weeks, but I'm still definitely behind Christian Bale for Best Supporting Actor. The man is well overdue for a nomination, and it would be spectacular if he actually won. It would also be the first time since 2006 that someone has won the award for playing someone other than a psychopathic killer. Inception took hold of the technical awards, as we knew it would. However, a vote of surprising confidence lies in Christopher Nolan's win for Best Original Screenplay. Finally, it looks like I'm going to have to seek out Exit Through the Gift Shop, as it's gaining some momentum in the Documentary race. Ultimately, we're going to have to start reassessing our decisions in terms of winners and nominations pretty soon.

Best Film: The Social Network
Best Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Original Screenplay: Inception
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Documentary: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Best Foreign Language Film: Biutiful
Best Art Direction: Inception
Best Cinematography: Inception
Best Score: Inception
Best Acting Ensemble: The Town