Oscar 2010 Predictions: Supporting Actress

Not nearly the most difficult race to predict, but also not a walk in the park. This was really a banner year for supporting female performances, and in fact more so than lead female performances. You can tell by the sheer amount of talent that wasn't nominated here, and yet should have been. Mila Kunis was did a fantastic job with what she was given in Black Swan, but the supporting gal that really stole the show for me was Barbara Hershey as Nina's overbearing mother. It's really one of the most tragic performances of the year, embodying somebody who reluctantly gave up her own career to become a mother, and as such is now realizing how she hasn't prepared her daughter properly for the real world. When she's looking up at Nina at the close of the film, you can see it in her eyes.

I could go on about Rooney Mara's stellar-but-short performance in The Social Network, Marion Cotillard's fascinating, multifaceted, and underrated work in Inception, or Mia Wasikowska's sweet and fragile overlooked performance in The Kids Are All Right, but I pretty much just summed them up in a run-on sentence. If there's any actress nominated here who is undeserving of any recognition, it is Helena Bonham Carter for The King's Speech. Don't get me wrong, because I've loved plenty of her past work, but she's the plainest and most uninteresting of the big three characters in the film. You can tell that from the clothing she wears, and you can tell that from her performance. I much preferred her latest turn as Bellatrix Lestrange in Deathly Hallows: Part 1.

I still haven't seen Animal Kingdom, for which Jacki Weaver is nominated, and I've been putting it off because the only ads for the film have been showing off this creepy and demented image of her. Maybe that's one of the big appeals of it, but I'll have to check it out sometime before this Sunday. Amy Adams is up for her work in The Fighter, which almost immediately appealed to me after I saw it. I gather that that's the way it was for most people, because she had such a trashy-yet-sexy attitude about her that seemed pretty authentic, and most people could imagine a girl like that in their neighborhood.

The big fight is between Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit and Melissa Leo for The Fighter, and I've been pretty one-sided for most of this race. At the end of last year, I absolutely loved Steinfeld's brave and beautiful performance, and I still believe that she's the best actress in contention here. However, as for the person who I believe will win and absolutely deserves to win, I have to go with Melissa Leo for The Fighter. After going back to the film, she's really got that ferocity and expression that almost matches her up with Bale's work. That's not even to mention the work she's done in the past. She's been unrewarded for so long, and that should end on Sunday night. If not, then she'll turn in another bravura performance and we'll be right back here again.

1. Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
2. Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
3. Amy Adams (The Fighter)
4. Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
5. Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)

Will & Should Win: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Potential Upset: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Should Have Been Nominated: Barbara Hershey (Black Swan) OR Rooney Mara (The Social Network) OR Marion Cotillard (Inception) OR Mia Wasikowska (The Kids Are All Right)

What's Next?: Best Supporting Actress

The Oscar nominations were announced Tuesday, and they brought the same serving of unusual surprises that we expect from them. I've already gone over what I happy and disappointed about, so that's not what this series is about. This is looking beyond the night of the ceremony and into the horizon at what the actors, actresses, writers, and directors will be doing in the coming months. It's a tad bit difficult, because the actors don't always make plans right away. For the most part, however, they usually have one or two films already down the pike for that year.

Amy Adams, nominated for the role of Charlene in The Fighter, has two films ahead of her this year, but both radically different in approach. One is a supporting role in On the Road, a film about a young man setting out on the roads and railways of America. The film is directed by Walter Salles (The Motorcycle Diaries), and written by Jose Rivera (Letter to Juliet). Without having seen any footage from the film, I doubt that I'll be standing in line to see it. On the other hand, Adams is also starring alongside Jason Segal (Forgetting Sarah Marshall) in the highly-anticipated family film, The Muppets. She's not likely to grab another nomination anytime soon, but she's got a pretty solid post-Oscar plan ahead of her.

Helena Bonham Carter has only one film to look forward to this year, but seeing as it's Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, I don't think she'll be too torn up over it. Melissa Leo always keeps a packed schedule of films each year, which could potentially aid in her getting another nomination this year. For one thing, she's got the Kevin Smith horror feature Red State on the way, even if it'll take a hell of a long time to get here. She's appearing in the title role of a mystery project called Francine, and taking a starring role in another mystery project called Seven Days in Utopia from first time director Matt Russell. No word on if there's any relation whatsoever to The Fighter director David O. Russell, but I wouldn't count on it

The other two actresses in the category don't yet have anything on the table in the foreseeable future, although I suspect Hailee Steinfeld should be getting an offer or two once she wins the Academy Award next month. The fifth slot was a competition between Mila Kunis and Jacki Weaver, and the latter was the ultimate victor. Though it's not quite related, Kunis is next slotted to appear in Friends with Benefits, the Black Swan twin of Portman's No Strings Attached. As for Jacki Weaver, we have no idea what she's doing next, but there are some ideas out there.

Images (In Order): Melissa Leo in Red State; Amy Adams in The Muppets

Oscar 2010: Final Nomination Predictions (Part 2: Acting Categories)

Sorry I didn't get this to you guys yesterday, but I had a lot more on my plate than I anticipated. Nonetheless, we have plenty to discuss today in terms of the acting categories, which are often the vital organs of the Academy Awards. The technical awards can be slid over, but the acting races are so closely observed. There's bound to be more than one disappointment in the books. The Supporting Actor category is perhaps the least competitive of the bunch, because everybody knows at this point that Christian Bale is going to take the award for The Fighter. It's almost unnecessary to have anyone else be nominated, and yet those slots still have to be filled.

Geoffrey Rush was the original frontrunner in the category for his work in The King's Speech, but once Bale entered the ring, there was little hope for Rush taking the win, but he should still get a nod. Mark Ruffalo was never anything more than a contender looking for a nomination for his work in The Kids Are All Right, and by that standard he should get it. This is where things get really tricky. Jeremy Renner entered the game later in the year for his work in The Town, and that's really the only outstanding aspect of that film, so he deserves a nod. That leaves only one major slot to fill, and in most ways it's the major battle between Andrew Garfield's work in The Social Network and John Hawkes' bravura performance in Winter's Bone. Personally, I'd go for John Hawkes to win the category in a second, but that's not going to happen. I shudder at the idea of him not taking a nomination at all. As much as I love Garfield's sentimental and appealing work as Eduardo Saverin, he's just outside the arena in this case.

One of the less predictable races, Supporting Actress, the entire race and its outcome depends on who is nominated. Amy Adams and Helena Bonham Carter are pretty solid bets to get nominations for The Fighter and The King's Speech respectively. Melissa Leo is in a major fight to win the award, but could so easily be thwarted by Hailee Steinfeld. It all depends on whether Steinfeld will be nominated in the lead or supporting race for True Grit, because that's still up for debate. If nominated in the supporting race, Leo has some major competition to go up against, a sad statement for such an esteemed actress. If nominated for lead, Leo should take the win, and Steinfeld walks away with some sort of consolation prize for her effort. As for who will round out the category, it's between Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom and Mila Kunis for Black Swan. I'd prefer the latter, and that's who I'm going to bet on. Of course, if Steinfeld makes the cut for lead, they could both make it in.

Awards 2010: BFCA Critics Choice Winners

It's so easy to minimalize the importance of these critics awards when you don't see the actual ceremony. The sense of occasion is one of the core defining aspects that makes going to the movies so important in the first place. Without it, it just doesn't seem necessary. I was really impressed by the brisk moving Critics Choice Awards on VH1 last night, because they kept things entertaining. The winners weren't so dull and sedated as people believe, as Jack McGee made clear while accepting the Best Ensemble award on behalf of the cast of The Fighter ("This is just Bitchin'!). Hailee Steinfeld was so darling and beautiful accepting the Best Young Actor/Actress award for True Grit. Every time I see Natalie Portman win an award for Black Swan, it makes me need to see the film again.

The opening montage of the year's films was pretty great, and Bruno Mars has never been so iconic and elegant before, nor will he be so ever again. The Jackass crew got some pretty nice laughs in their parodies of films like Inception, Black Swan, and The Social Network ("Thousand. Twenty-two hundred views in 1000 hours."). Quentin Tarantino and Matt Damon accepted the honorary awards of the evening, and they made their time count. My favorite presenter of the evening was undeniably Kevin Spacey. He's got so much charisma and comedic timing, and I miss seeing him in films. He needs to take another major role now, or else I'll take him and lock him up in my cellar for him to entertain me whenever I want.

There were a few small surprises along the way, and that certainly eases the stress of the awards season being too content as it is. We knew who was going to take home the big award in the end, but that didn't keep us from getting a slight pit in our gut as the nominees were announced. I feel like Alice in Wonderland and Inception went away with probably too many awards, and Black Swan should have secured more statues over the course of the evening. I'm pretty damn happy that Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross won best Original Score for The Social Network. I think they're a pretty good bet on getting an Oscar nomination now, and whenever I have some heavy blogging work to do, I play their soundtrack in the background. I'm also glad I stuck to my guns in predicting Easy A would win Best Comedy. Sometimes things turn out exactly as they should. The evening was a healthy reminder that the season is far less safe and predictable as it seems, and that Melissa Leo is a lot more attractive in real life than she looks in The Fighter.

Best Picture: The Social Network
Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Best Actress: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Best Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Best Cinematography: Inception
Best Art Direction: Inception
Best Film Editing: Inception
Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
Best Makeup: Alice in Wonderland
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Sound: Inception
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Action Movie: Inception
Best Comedy: Easy A
Best Picture Made for Television: The Pacific
Best Foreign Language Film: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Documentary: Waiting for "Superman"
Best Song: "If I Rise" from 127 Hours
Best Score: The Social Network

Awards 2010: Kansas City Film Critics Circle

Nah. I already saw that one. Go fish.

Best Film: The Social Network
Best Director: Christopher Nolan (Inception)
Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Best Actress: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Best Original Screenplay: Inception
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
Best Documentary: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Best Foreign Language Film: Mother

Oscar 2010: Hailee Steinfeld For Lead or Supporting?

With the face of a star on the Disney Channel, but the talent of an award winner, young Hailee Steinfeld is the talk of the internet right now. Ever since the very first time I saw my top film of the year, True Grit, I certain that Hailee Steinfeld should be considered more in the Best Actress category than for Supporting Actress. The recent news that Academy members could be going their own way and voting her as a lead actress should be all my dreams come true, but somehow it isn't. The fact of the matter is, even though she deserves to be considered the lead performance of the film, she has been winning several of the critics awards recently in the Supporting Actress race. As a matter of fact, there's a very certain chance that she might actually win if she goes in that category.

So now we're faced with an epic dilemma, and it brings into question what we want most. I've made it clear that I'm completely on the fence, one side wishing her performance would be appreciated by describing it as what it is, and the other side just so badly wanting her to win. Either one has it's advantages and disadvantages, but I think the one that would be more beneficial to Steinfeld's career would be Supporting Actress, as she is my current favorite. But what does the lady protest? Well, she claims that she's fine with where she is, saying the film was an ensemble effort. I'm not going to argue with her there, but it's ultimately up to the Academy where she falls.

Awards 2010: Online Film Critics Society

Well, we're finally into the final stretch of the awards season, and it seems like things are finally taking shape. The Social Network is continuing to lay the groundwork for its upcoming Best Picture win. Colin Firth and Natalie Portman have become the frontrunners in their respective category. Christian Bale has no competition, so that's a good thing for him. True Grit is finally getting those cinematography digs that it deserves, and Hailee Steinfeld won another Supporting Actress category, which would be great except for one small tiny little thing that could ruin this year for me, and I'll get to that later. What do you think? Happy? Sad? Pissed? Let me know!

1st Annual Nitrate Awards

We've now officially completed this year's inaugural run of the "Best of the Year" segment, and it's definitely been something of a success. It was a little rocky on the finish there, and I apologize for the numerous problems that sprung up in terms of yesterday's "Best Films of 2010" posts. I'll probably not try the whole countdown thing again next year, and just go with simply posting it all up, avoiding all the technical errors that we've been rigorously dealing with these past few weeks. So now the only thing left to do is give my superlatives, and so here is the premiere run of the Nitrate Awards, which we hope to carry on more successfully to next year. Feel free to list your choices in these categories!

Best Picture: True Grit
Best Director: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Best Actress: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Supporting Actor: John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Best Supporting Actress: Marion Cotillard (Inception)
Best Male Cameo: Chris Evans (Scott Pilgrim vs. the World)
Best Female Cameo: Rooney Mara (The Social Network)
Best Breakthrough Male Performance: Kieran Culkin (Scott Pilgrim vs. The World)
Best Breakthrough Female Performance: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

Fragility, Bravery, and Sexiness: Best Female Performances of 2010

If yesterday's list of the best male performances felt a bit underwhelming, it's because this wasn't so much a year for men. This was a fantastic year for women, so much so that it it's become difficult to place final decisions on those two Oscar races. I've had several favorites throughout the past few months, and I think I've finally got my choices nailed down for both categories. Many are saying that this was a year of newly discovered actresses, which I believe to be a bit of an overstatement. Maybe it's because I had already discovered Chloe Moretz in last year's (500) Days of Summer, not to belittle her efforts this year. I'm hesitant to say she's the next Dakota Fanning, because I hate Dakota Fanning. Nevertheless, her disturbing dark and controversial performances in Kick-Ass and Let Me In have certainly made a name for her.

One of the greater acting showcases this year was The Fighter, which obviously contained the jaw-dropping performance from Christian Bale, but there were also the smaller gems from the film. Amy Adams is probably the most underrated of the group, because she gives a very tough, sexy, and somewhat skanky performance as Mickey's girlfriend Charlene. She gives something a logical compass for the film when Mickey's delusional family comes to misdirect him. Probably the most overrated performance is from Melissa Leo, who I admit gave a fantastic performance as the cancer faced mother of Mickey's family, and the person who really controls all the moves of her blessed white-trash children. However, she's not really given too much of a chance to shine, and her character's purpose is a bit too similar to Bale's character, and it edges on lunacy at times. She's an amazing actress, but this just isn't her time.

This is probably the most daring praise I'll give an actress this year, I was extremely impressed with Tina Fey's voice work on the film Megamind. She joins the ranks of other actors who emotionally transcended the animated genre, most notably Ellen Degeneres in 2003's Finding Nemo. Tina Fey's vocal expression brings a lot of the charm and sexiness to the character of Roxanne Ritchi. Rounding out the actresses who didn't quite make the cut for me is Rooney Mara who had merely two or three scenes in this year's greatest success story, The Social Network, but one of them happens to be the best standalone scene in the film. Her work as Erica Albright, the soon-to-be-ex-girlfriend of Jesse Eisenberg's Mark Zuckerberg, is surprisingly passionate and gives a feminist edge to the predominantly male driven film. The top ten actresses of the year after the jump!

Awards 2010: Austin Film Critics Association

We're about to reach the dead center of the awards season, and this is the time where things really start to take their final shape, so I'm looking forward to having more awards that try to break the usual formula. The Austin critics are off to a pretty good start, opting out of giving the top prize to The Social Network in favor of Black Swan. I think it's a great choice, and it definitely reminds us that there's more than just one film in the race. Also, Hailee Steinfeld was awarded in the Best Supporting Actress category, which has been flailing between Melissa Leo, Mila Kunis, and several different performers over the past few months. I think Steinfeld could end up being the winner in that category for her fantastic performance in True Grit. I'd be willing to put good money on that bet.

Best Picture: Black Swan
Best Director: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Best Actress: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Original Screenplay: Black Swan
Best Foreign Language Film: A Prophet
Best Cinematography: Black Swan
Best Original Score: Daft Punk (TRON: Legacy)
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Documentary: Exit Through the Gift Shop

Film Review: True Grit

I haven't ever been too familiar with the western genre. I tried to get into The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, but it ultimately didn't rub off on me. It didn't have as well a pace as it should've, and as it started its final half-hour I just didn't care enough. I haven't seen any of John Wayne or Clint Eastwood's old classics. The only western I ever really enjoyed was the 3:10 to Yuma remake which was released a few years back. It didn't have nearly as much visual flair as the others, but it kept a consistent pace and had two fantastic performances from Christian Bale and Russell Crowe. Joel & Ethan Coen's No Country For Old Men is often considered a western, but in comparison to their adaptation of True Grit, it's far too modern.

Which brings us to the latest film from the brothers Coen, and I can tell you that it is a true classic American western. True Grit follows Mattie Ross, a young girl whose father is killed by a coward named Tom Cheney. After refusing to head home with her father's corpse, she instead hires a local U.S. Marshall by the name of Rooster Cogburn to go after Cheney in hopes of retribution. Joining their alliance is a rather full of himself Texas Ranger named La Beouf, and they begrudgingly head after the gang that Cheney is a part of. It's a rather typical story for a western, but I don't remember it being told as convincingly as it is here.

When the trailers were released for this film, I had my doubts and worries about whether it be mainstream for them to inject their specific feeling into it. I love most of the Coen's films because they don't decide to go by regular cinematic rules. However, there is a faint signature that Joel and Ethan leave on this film. The scenes run on as long as they please, but it's never too apparent to the audience. By the end, it is clear who made the film, because the themes they work with are very much present. The theme they play around with the most in their films is that life pretty much sucks, but this film is probably the most optimistic they've ever made. I guess they were in a mood to make a happy film. That is to say that it is happy compared to most of what they've made in the past.

Ultimately, I was surprised by how much I loved this film. Most Coen films grate against me during the first viewing, only for me to later revisit them and find their value. True Grit was a fantastic film upon the first viewing. Roger Deakins turns in his most visually striking work to date, and I'm glad as hell that I postponed my cinematography list until later on. The first shot of the film is beautiful, and probably time consuming to create. From then on, the film was challenged to make up a story and performances that are as captivating as the imagery. As Barney Stinson would say, "Challenge completed!"

Jeff Bridges does a fantastic job in the role of Rooster Cogburn. He's fat and old, and he drinks far more than he should. He's the last man a reasonable human being would choose to go on a man-hunt. He really ignites the dynamic between the main group, but to say that he's the main attraction would be heresy. Hailee Steinfeld is the heart and soul of this film, and she should be more involved in the lead actress race than the supporting one. It's her story that's being told, and she has far more grit than any other character onscreen. She's not going to step aside based on the sole fact that she's a girl, and she's not going to let any man take advantage of her neither.

Matt Damon hasn't really had a good year, with both Green Zone and Hereafter missing their marks. I hope this is the film that people remember most when looking over his work this year. His performance as La Beouf ranges from stubborn, to metro-sexual, to a respectful human being. Finally, and least of all because he has so little screen time is Josh Brolin as Tom Cheney. He's hardly the main man of the gang he belongs to, and he certainly is a lowly coward. He's terrifying at some points, and it occasionally feels like we're an edge away from losing a beloved character. That's how effective Brolin is with the short time he's afforded.

True Grit wasn't a western that really depended on the action sequences, because it gained most of its effect from the quieter sequences, as is the way with most great films. A lot of time is spent with the characters wandering almost aimlessly through the wilderness, but it's done in more of a fast pace, in contrast to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1, which often used deathly silence to create the mood of the adventure. However, when the action starts, Carter Burwell's relatively light and courageous score lets you know. It's not your typical western, and the Joel & Ethan Coen give the film a flavor entirely its own. I'd like to think that this is a game changer, but even I know not to hope that high. I'm still glad that I decided to see True Grit before this year was over.

A+

Awards 2010: Houston Film Critics Society

So, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World won Best Original Song. That's... different.

Best Picture: The Social Network
Best Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Best Actor: Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Best Actress: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Best Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Cinematography: Inception
Best Documentary: Restrepo
Best Foreign Language Film: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Original Score: Inception
Best Original Song: "We Are Sex Bob-Omb!" from Scott Pilgrim vs. The World

Awards 2010: Chicago Film Critics Association

You know the drill. The Social Network is cleaning out at least three central categories. Colin Firth and Natalie Portman continue to struggle as the frontrunners in the lead acting race. Christian Bale is really the only sure thing in the acting category. Hailee Steinfeld is getting some starting momentum for her role in True Grit, and I'll have to see the film before I call judgment. Finally, Jennifer Lawrence and Derek Cianfrance were given special honors for their breakout work this year.

Best Picture: The Social Network
Best Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Best Actress: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Original Screenplay: Inception
Best Foreign Language Film: A Prophet
Best Documentary: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Cinematography: Inception
Best Original Score: Black Swan
Most Promising Performer: Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Most Promising Filmmaker: Derek Cianfrance (Blue Valentine)

For Your Anticipation: You Missed Your Shot

I'm probably not going to end up seeing as many of this year's films as I had hoped, mostly because 127 Hours remains far too elusive for me to catch a screening. I will fortunately have the chance to see Black Swan pretty soon, and True Grit even sooner. Jeff Bridges managed to do more than impress me with his work in TRON: Legacy, so it'll be nice to see him take on a meatier role this week. The Coen brothers definitely seem to be working out of their usual territory, and I don't think we'll be getting the same unique style they're best known for. However, as a mainstream film, True Grit still looks like it's worth the time.