These are probably the easiest categories to predict in the whole race, especially the supporting acting races. In the supporting actor categories there are a few little actors (Matt Damon, Christopher Plummer) who'd like to think that playing nice little characters will get them an award someday. They'd be wrong. For the past two years the supporting actor award has gone to a sociopathic murderer, and this year should show no change in that trend. Woody Harrelson (The Messenger) doesn't go so far as becoming a psychopath, but his body of work over the entire year has earned him this recognition.
Stanley Tucci might have a considerable shot for his tense portrayal as the town rapist, if it hadn't been in such a bad movie (The Lovely Bones). There's really no argument to the matter that Christoph Waltz will take the award for his amazing performance as Hans Landa, the endlessly intelligent Nazy colonel who works his way into all five chapters of Inglourious Basterds. The film survives without him on screen, which is a testament to Quentin Tarantino's prowess as a filmmaker. But it's Waltz's dead on accuracy of each line of dialogue that makes you love his character.
In the supporting actress race, Up in the Air has two nominations. Neither of them are going to win. Don't get me wrong. I love Vera Farmiga's sexy love girlfriend, and I'm glad that Anna Kendrick was able to claw her way out of becoming just another girl in the Twilight franchise. I also love Maggie Gylenhaal in Crazy Heart, despite the fact that there wasn't a single time that I felt that the relationship wasn't awkward and wierd. As for Penelope Cruz, if it was for a character in any movie other than Nine then I'd say yes. They all fail in comparison to Mo'nique's performance as the abusive mother in Precious. I haven't seen it yet, but as soon as I do I'll give you details.
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