Oscar 2011: My Year In Advance Predictions (Part 1 of 2)

So the Oscars are a year away, and it seems unintelligent to put predictions for Best Picture up that early. I just don't care, so I'm going to do them anyway. We'll see in a year how many I got right. -How Do You Know- I realize that you haven't heard of it, but many of the best films nominated this year were films we hadn't heard of a year in advance. That said, I don't think this film is going to be this years The Hurt Locker. Still the fact that it has James L. Brooks (Terms of Endearment, As Good as it Gets) behind it puts it out in front. Add onto that Paul Rudd who has yet to star in a film I haven't liked, Academy Award winner Reese Witherspoon, and Jack Nicholson and it seems idiotic not to put it up on this list.

-The American- Any year where George Clooney stars in a film is a year where he's an instant frontrunner for the award. What makes this film different is that he plays an assasin which puts it more in the area of his roles in Michael Clayton and Syriana than that of his most recent film Up in the Air. With this type of subject it could easily go the wrong way, but its chances are still considerably high.
-The Social Network- The last time David Fincher brought a film to screen it was nominated for 13 awards (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button). For his follow-up he's scaling it down a lot with a film about the creation of one of the most popular social networking sites. Somehow "Facebook: The Movie" doesn't immediately strike one as a film that could get Oscar attention. However, having Jesse Eisenberg and Justin Timberlake, two great comedic actors as the leads does make things interesting, and operating off of a script by Aaron Sorkin (The West Wing) doesn't hurt either.-True Grit- The Coen Brothers have made it into this category this easily this year with A Serious Man, but now they're back in familiar territory with this western based on the John Wayne film. Their last western won Best Picture (No Country For Old Men), and with Jeff Bridges playing the pivotal role I can see this film being successful not only critically but also at the box office. It's a huge possibility.
-Hereafter- At the beginning of every year a Clint Eastwood film is placed as one of the frontruners, and then when they are at last released at the end of the year they either gain huge acclaim (Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby), or as it has been more recently, they don't (Changeling, Gran Torino, Invictus). I think this film will place in the former category for a few reasons. One of them is Peter Morgan's script, and while I know that you don't need a great script to be nominated for Best Picture (Avatar) it does play a big part. A supernatural thriller is something of a first for Eastwood and I'm interested to see how it plays to an audience. Some people believe that Clint may have lost his touch, but the box office success of Gran Torino disputes that. He's as good as he's ever been. He's just had bad luck with screenplays.

I

Expect the second half of my list by the end of day monday.