Box Office Report: "Ice Age" melts as "Moonrise" rises

We may be getting stuck in the doldrums of summer, I fear. A weekend filled with films earning a lot of money is garnering merely a shrug out of me. Admittedly, that's much the way I am during the summer, with "Moonrise Kingdom" being the only success story that merits emotional resonance from me. The audience circus that is box office stats, while I occasionally enjoy commenting on it, wanes with the years as the sums get larger and real success seems a much smaller thing. For example, on some scale "The Amazing Spider-Man" is doing rather well. It's on its way toward $300 million by the end of its run. And yet not only is it meager in the face of the success of the original "Spider-Man" and "Spider-Man 2", but it'll barely register by the year's end.

True box office achievements are stated by two things: 1) the exceptional quality of the film it belongs to ("Twilight" and "Hunger Games" do not count), and 2) contrast to the average box office of its type of film. Take "Moonrise Kingdom" for example, as usually indie films do not register with mainstream audiences. Not only is it continuing to fare extremely well throughout the summer, but it also happens to be Wes Anderson's most inspiring creation to date. Contrast that with "Ice Age: Continental Drift", which opened in line with its predecessors, sure, but nearly $15+ million below any of the other major animated openings this year. Add to that reviews similar to those of every other film in the franchise, we get something that's not all that interesting to comment on.

Box Office Report: "Spider-Man" leads "Amazing" weekend

My worries of a large dip for "Amazing Spider-Man" were apparently unfounded, as the film performed rather positivity anyway. The more I dwell on it, the more I think this proposed trilogy is salvageable, provided they find the right director for the follow-up (can I start by pitching David Cronenberg?). Sure, the reboot didn't perform nearly the same numbers as any of Raimi's trilogy, but reboots generally have a tough time inspiring new followers. In comparison, it's fared much better than the openings for "Batman Begins", "Superman Returns", or "The Incredible Hulk" ($48.7, $52.5, & 55.4, respectively). The film is tracking for a $300 million finish, which is fantastic with all things considered.

The real success story of the summer, currently, continues to be "Ted", to which aspirations were made to "The Hangover" very early on. Seth MacFarlane's talking-teddy comedy is holding extremely well, and considering there isn't a comedy to steal its audience for another three weeks, one could expect it to continue its victory run. Talking of which, "Brave" continues to be a return to form for Pixar, at least in terms of box office success. It seems destined for the same average as predecessors such as "Cars" and "WALL-E". "Savages" fell to a middling status debut, despite aspirations of wider audience acceptance.

Weekend Forecast: "Magic Mike" preps to be a smash

Channing Tatum is prepping to storm the box office in a huge way this weekend, and everyone seems to have their backs turned to it. For caution's sake, I'm only going to predict "Magic Mike" to debut in the mid-40s, but I honestly believe that it's going to hit higher than that. There are a few things that inform that opinion, one being the $2 million it scored in midnight showings. For an R-rated "comedy", that's spectacular. It's also got Channing Tatum to its name, and the man has never been hotter in the audience eye. Between "The Vow" and "21 Jump Street", he has been making the rounds pretty well to get to this point. What it amounts to is the most potent release of his career. Add to that the fact that the film is absolute dynamite, and you're golden.

My heart tells me to expect that Soderbergh film to mint $50+ million this weekend. As for "Brave", expect it to still hold on spectacularly, seeing as there's nothing new for kids this weekend, unless they unadvisedly walk into "Ted" thinking it's something it's not. Talking of the McFarlane debut, I expect it will do pretty well with people looking for a more overt laugh-fest. It'll find an audience, as will "Medea's Witness Protection", which should find success with Tyler Perry's existing crowd of onlookers, though I speak purely in box office terms.

Box Office Report: "Brave" changes its fate

Just a general rule to keep in mind when predicting box office success: Do not play down expectations ever. True, there are situations in which films like "Rock of Ages" and "That's My Boy" don't perform as well as people expect they normally would. There are also situations in which we're predicting a fantasy action film starring Kristen Stewart will only earn $30 million its opening weekend, or that a Dreamworks animation flick will suddenly disappoint just when kids are getting out of schools. So when Pixar, a company that specializes in films that appeal to both children and adults, debuts a heartfelt new feature, do not play down the odds of success!

I don't often play up the film's quality in relation to box office, but "Brave" is consistently hilarious, amazingly beautiful, and brought some real tears to my eyes towards the finish. For those qualities, I think people are almost certain to spread some positive word on this film, possibly returning for a second go in theaters. Given those facts, I think we could project a similar trajectory as "Cars" took back in 2006, possibly going on to achieve $250 by the time it finishes up. It has three weeks until another animated film enters the market, which should be plenty time for it to build its case against "Madagascar 3". In any case, Pixar probably has a genuine success on their hands with this one.

Speaking of "Madagascar 3", the film kept an admirable hold at the box office against Pixar's latest, though now that there's a much better alternative for kid crowds we might see its strength taper off greatly in coming weeks. "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" had quite the miserable weekend, with audiences either steering clear or figuring out why they should have. "Seeking a Friend for the End of the World" crapped out altogether, sadly enough for the Focus Feature... comedy? That lack of knowledge in marketing may be the problem. Ultimately this weekend was $10 million shy of last year, when "Bad Teacher" boosted the weekend ruled by "Cars 2" up a notch financially.

1. "Brave" (First Weekend; 66.7 million)

2. "Madagascar 3" (Second Weekend; $20.2 million; $157.6 MILLION TOTAL)

3. "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" (First Weekend; $16.5 million)

4. "Prometheus" (Third Weekend; $10 million; $108.5 MILLION TOTAL)

5. "Rock of Ages" (Second Weekend; $8 million; $28.8 MILLION TOTAL)

6. "Snow White and the Huntsman" (Fourth Weekend; $8 million; $137.1 MILLION TOTAL)

7. "That's My Boy" (Second Weekend; $7.9 million; $28.2 MILLION TOTAL)

8. "The Avengers" (Eighth Weekend; $7 million; $598.3 MILLION TOTAL)

9. "Men in Black 3" (Fifth Weekend; $5.6 million; $163.3 MILLION TOTAL)

10. "Seeking a Friend for the End of the World" (First Weekend; $3.8 million)

Weekend Forecast: The odds be ever in "Brave"s favor

It surprises me that people are estimating a smaller than usual opening for "Brave". It seems rather illogical for three reasons, the first being the fact that it's a kids flick. After "Madagascar 3"s strong opening, it seems ridiculous to expect it to do any less than $61 million. The second strong aspect is Pixar's recognizable staple, which secures in a large sect of people enamored with Pixar films. The third factor, and I may be overestimating this, is "The Hunger Games". Similarities alone factor it a strong boost, especially in this year. I think a $70+ million opening is close to a certainty. If "Cars 2" can get $60 million with bad reviews and negative buzz, "Brave" will be fine with its solid reviews.

The competitors have a much riskier time this weekend, particularly "Seeking a Friend for the End of the World". The Keira Knightley and Steve Carell rom-com has been particularly low on the buzz meter, especially considering it's about the apocalypse. I guess that isn't so much of a draw right now, but it's just had a silent marketing campaign, killing any wider potential the film has. "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" at least has the heat of male hype to fuel it, and I wouldn't be surprised if it got to $25 million this weekend. I just don't expect it to.

Box Office Report: "Boy", nothing can "Rock" "Madagascar"!

How come we still aren't able to see these things coming? After last weekend, when an animated kid-flick beat out a Rated-R sci-fi piece, we still weren't quite prepared for a teen rock musical and dumb boys comedy to not perform too well. Let us please shed a tear for "Rock of Ages", budgeted at $75 million and now rather unlikely to make that back domestically. We can still hope the film will have enough staying power and overseas strength to not be considered a failure. Less mourning will be had for "That's My Boy", Andy Sandler and Adam Samberg's comedy which stalled majorly at the box office this weekend. It looks like people know what to expect from Sandler these days, and they know well enough to avoid him. Or maybe it just lacked the kid-appeal "Jack and Jill" had.

Last week's large debuts haven't entirely tapered off, though one certainly is fading faster than the other. "Prometheus" isn't plummeting so much out of sight as one might have expected, though it's clear that this one has a tougher time ahead of it than the likes of "Snow White and the Huntsman". "Madagascar 3", in the meantime, continues to fare as well as Dreamworks films often do. The finishing of that respective trilogy is turning out to be quite a hit with the kids, at least at this frame of it's lifespan. We could very well see a substantial dip with "Brave" entering the market, stealing the target audience as well as people who are simply more enamored with Pixar.

Quick Takes: "Snow White", "Madagascar 3", "Return", "Romeo + Juliet"

"Snow White and the Huntsman" (*1/2)

Directed by Rupert Sanders

I took the effort to revisit Tarsem Singh's own take on the fable, "Mirror Mirror", before sitting in on "Snow White and the Huntsman", and though I don't wish to file comparison, it's pretty clear that the latter has much less enthusiasm in its cogs. I think it's pretty clear when a filmmaking crew is having fun, and when they're not. This film seems like rather drudging work. It takes real emotional effort to make something this cinematically dull. Lacking any color or levity, but not possessing any real emotional tether to proceedings, people die and battles wage, for no purpose. What's more, it feels like the actors are just too consumed by the ham of the dialogue and lacking intellect of the script to really put in any effort. This film just feels entirely effortless, and not in a positive manner.

"Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted" (**)

Directed by Eric Darnell, Tom McGrath, and Conrad Vernon

Dreamworks has made a pretty good name for itself across the past few years for making wild and crazy films, filled with popping shenanigans, but not overtly kiddie as to not appeal to the adults. "Madagascar 3" shatters that a bit, throwing about the same shenanigans, but this time strictly playing to the children's crowd from which most of its box office is growing from. It feels like we're coming into a half completed story, and they don't feel the need to make us care about these characters any more. They don't put in nearly enough heart, which they quite oddly had plenty of in "Madagascar 2". It feels like a conclusion for the sake of concluding, and not for the sake of closure, or smart entertainment. The kids? They'll love it, and they already do. It's us who aren't gonna have a good time with it.

Weekend Forecast: Cruise Musical vs. Sandler-Samberg

It's a very odd feeling I have concerning this weekend, especially in comparison to last. Consider the general head-space regarding last weekend. "Prometheus", a film with through the roof anticipation, and "Madagascar 3", a film from a company who is known for entertaining at a hyperactive level, were both being released. Both of those films debuted over $50 million, and yet they both proved disappointing to me personally. Mind you, I'm never surprised when a bad film rakes in a surplus of cash, but I didn't truly believe these films would turn out so ill-forged. That said, both films will do very well this weekend, along with the mix of new releases.

What gives it a strange dynamic is that I am suddenly rather excited to see "Rock of Ages". I have no love for the jukebox musical sub-genre, but the cast of this film coupled with some fantastic musical numbers is enough to spark interest for me. It simply looks like more fun than has been in the theaters for a while, likely since "The Avengers" hit multiplex's. On the other side of this weekend, "That's My Boy" will do its share in the box office because it's Father's Day weekend, it's a comedy, and it stars crowd magnates Adam Sandler and Andy Samberg. College age boys will be doing some majorly hedonistic male bonding on this one.

Box Office Report: "Madagascar" steals "Prometheus" fire

I feel like box office analysts are kicking themselves in the heads for not seeing this coming a mile away. After all, animated films in general have been a mainstay in the summer landscape, most especially as they draw the child masses out to the theaters. It is for that reason we'll see "Brave" perform remarkably well in two weeks, and how "Madagascar 3" managed to out-muscle "Prometheus" at the box office this weekend. "Prometheus" merely operated within the expectations that were allotted it. It's an Rated-R sci-fi horror flick on a huge budget, with few name stars and the added bonus of 3D. By that factor, it performed decently.

Heading on from here, however, is a noticeably more dicey situation for Ridley Scott's slow-build thriller. Audience reaction hasn't been exactly through the roof, and that word of mouth could bite the film in the sack. It's still very likely to make bank, and even turn some kind of profit. We aren't prepping a failure on the scale of "John Carter" or "Battleship". It's just not quite as fortunate as we expected it would be. Turning back to "Madagascar", it absolutely has some strong credentials going forward. Dreamworks films generally tend to dip around or below 40% on their second weekends, and from there it's relatively easy sailing.

Films to See in 2012: June

May always does seem like more of a smooth transition into Summer than a direct onslaught. Now we're in June, where the blockbuster offerings come in great numbers, and all the better for it since there are bound to be a few that fall rather predictably. In the first week alone we have "Snow White and the Huntsman", which I can only greet with skepticism since it doesn't look to be an honest film by any means. "Mirror Mirror" has gained a wide array of differing opinions, but you cannot call it dishonest for the direction it took that story. The Kristen Stewart actioner seems to be simply to turn the story into something it isn't.

Also out that weekend are "Battlefield America" and "For Greater Glory", two films I'd previously not heard of until they were announced for wide releases. Exactly how wide that implies remains to be seen. In limited release, surprisingly, is "Piranha 3DD", which is likely to meet a quick and sudden death if expectations serve. It's thew following week that things really start picking up for the better. Amongst other things, "Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted" hits the stage, which should serve as acceptable entertaining for kids, and maybe just enough for adults too. If not much more, Dreamworks does have a tendency to be at least fun.

CANNES 2012 REACTIONS: "Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted"

Wait, what? Oh yeah, there are plenty of out-of-competition films looking to gain popularity amongst the festival crowd, or at least a little bit of buzz ahead of their releases. Usually they fit the position of opening night, but seeing as that slot has been host to more indie oriented flicks lately, they've found other avenues within the festival. Suffice it to say that "Madagascar 3" is getting a great deal more favor than "Pirates of the Caribbean" did when it showed up begrudgingly last year. Of course there are going to be people too set into their serious festival goer caps to give this film the time of day, but it's not one to simply dismiss, especially given the positive words that have eked their way out. This one's looking to be a sweet little dalliance.

Justin Chang (Variety): "This is the rare animated property that has consistently improved on its ho-hum origins, as 2008's "Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa" delivered unexpectedly fine character shadings and a less grating sense of humor than the 2005 franchise-starter. Given an extra-loopy comic spin by scribes Noah Baumbach (who previously ventured into animation writing with "Fantastic Mr. Fox") and Eric Darnell, "Madagascar 3" places a higher value on speed and spectacle than either of its predecessors, piling on the narrative lunacy to outlandish, even surreal ends."

Todd McCarthy (Hollywood Reporter): "Madagascar 3 is colorful, moves like the TGV rather than the slow zoo train on view and is over in a flash. But it’s dominated by the characters shouting over one another, repetitively reacting with alarm to anything that happens and overcompensating for largely unfunny material by overacting by about 300 percent. Yes, it’s a cartoon, but it’s conspicuously unmodulated, with the volume set on high and the pacing all but pushed to fast-forward."

Mark Adams (Screen International): "Charmingly the 3D works to impressive effect as the stodgy old-fashioned circus is gradually transformed into a bright, balletic and stylish Cirque du Soleil affair, with much emphasis put on how the animals’ hard-work and creativity pays off, with a spectacular performance set against singer Katy Perry’s foot-tappingly perfect song 'Firework' as the animals spin and leap through the air with joyful abandon."

CANNES 2012: Lineup announcement scales down

Is anybody else severely interested in how US-centric this year's Cannes lineup is? I say "severe" as an deplorable statement, since I'm usually quite captivated with the Cannes lineup when it goes for films that haven't been even close to my radar. As your knowledge of the world grows, surprises do seem to dwindle. That's not to say I'm completely down on the Cannes lineup this year, and in fact, I'm quite pumped for many of the films brought forth. Any year we get the latest from Jacques Audiard, Michael Haneke, David Cronenberg, Andrew Dominik, and Abbas Kiarostami is an exceptional year on those bases alone.

"Rust and Bone", "Cosmopolis", and "Like Someone in Love" have already gotten the ball rolling with trailers up for the Audiard, Cronenberg, and Kiarostami films, respectively. If you were to ask me which film I'm most interested to see, it's got to be Haneke's "Amour". Such a title to pair up with that guy is going to arouse suspicion, but mostly just arouse. Beyond that, there's Walter Salles' "On the Road", which I must honestly say I have little interest in. Kristen Stewart is an unbearable actress, and I try to avoid seeing anything with her wandering across the screen with an absolutely clueless expression on her face.