Sunday, June 24, 2012

Box Office Report: "Brave" changes its fate

Just a general rule to keep in mind when predicting box office success: Do not play down expectations ever. True, there are situations in which films like "Rock of Ages" and "That's My Boy" don't perform as well as people expect they normally would. There are also situations in which we're predicting a fantasy action film starring Kristen Stewart will only earn $30 million its opening weekend, or that a Dreamworks animation flick will suddenly disappoint just when kids are getting out of schools. So when Pixar, a company that specializes in films that appeal to both children and adults, debuts a heartfelt new feature, do not play down the odds of success!

I don't often play up the film's quality in relation to box office, but "Brave" is consistently hilarious, amazingly beautiful, and brought some real tears to my eyes towards the finish. For those qualities, I think people are almost certain to spread some positive word on this film, possibly returning for a second go in theaters. Given those facts, I think we could project a similar trajectory as "Cars" took back in 2006, possibly going on to achieve $250 by the time it finishes up. It has three weeks until another animated film enters the market, which should be plenty time for it to build its case against "Madagascar 3". In any case, Pixar probably has a genuine success on their hands with this one.

Speaking of "Madagascar 3", the film kept an admirable hold at the box office against Pixar's latest, though now that there's a much better alternative for kid crowds we might see its strength taper off greatly in coming weeks. "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" had quite the miserable weekend, with audiences either steering clear or figuring out why they should have. "Seeking a Friend for the End of the World" crapped out altogether, sadly enough for the Focus Feature... comedy? That lack of knowledge in marketing may be the problem. Ultimately this weekend was $10 million shy of last year, when "Bad Teacher" boosted the weekend ruled by "Cars 2" up a notch financially.

1. "Brave" (First Weekend; 66.7 million)
2. "Madagascar 3" (Second Weekend; $20.2 million; $157.6 MILLION TOTAL)
3. "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" (First Weekend; $16.5 million)
4. "Prometheus" (Third Weekend; $10 million; $108.5 MILLION TOTAL)
5. "Rock of Ages" (Second Weekend; $8 million; $28.8 MILLION TOTAL)
6. "Snow White and the Huntsman" (Fourth Weekend; $8 million; $137.1 MILLION TOTAL)
7. "That's My Boy" (Second Weekend; $7.9 million; $28.2 MILLION TOTAL)
8. "The Avengers" (Eighth Weekend; $7 million; $598.3 MILLION TOTAL)
9. "Men in Black 3" (Fifth Weekend; $5.6 million; $163.3 MILLION TOTAL)
10. "Seeking a Friend for the End of the World" (First Weekend; $3.8 million)

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