Thursday, June 21, 2012

Weekend Forecast: The odds be ever in "Brave"s favor

It surprises me that people are estimating a smaller than usual opening for "Brave". It seems rather illogical for three reasons, the first being the fact that it's a kids flick. After "Madagascar 3"s strong opening, it seems ridiculous to expect it to do any less than $61 million. The second strong aspect is Pixar's recognizable staple, which secures in a large sect of people enamored with Pixar films. The third factor, and I may be overestimating this, is "The Hunger Games". Similarities alone factor it a strong boost, especially in this year. I think a $70+ million opening is close to a certainty. If "Cars 2" can get $60 million with bad reviews and negative buzz, "Brave" will be fine with its solid reviews.

The competitors have a much riskier time this weekend, particularly "Seeking a Friend for the End of the World". The Keira Knightley and Steve Carell rom-com has been particularly low on the buzz meter, especially considering it's about the apocalypse. I guess that isn't so much of a draw right now, but it's just had a silent marketing campaign, killing any wider potential the film has. "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" at least has the heat of male hype to fuel it, and I wouldn't be surprised if it got to $25 million this weekend. I just don't expect it to.

1. "Brave" ~ $72 million
2. "Madagascar 3" ~ $22 million
3. "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" ~ $21 million
3. "Prometheus" ~ $12 million
5. "Rock of Ages" ~ $8 million

I'LL BE SEEING: "Brave" and "Seeking a Friend for the End of the World"

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