Weekend Forecast: "Lawless" leads a decreasing slate

Though this weekend touts one of the more pleasant surprises of the past couple months, it is something rather thin in terms of encouraging options at the multiplex. If by now you've already seen "ParaNorman" and "Lawless", and you're still looking for fresh mainstream options, you may very well be out luck. Of course "Lawless" only took in just over $2 million these past two days, so I will assume most are still uninitiated in the positive offerings of the feature. I've already effused on this rural slice of good-time entertainment, though I assume most will still turn a cold shoulder to the gangster film, leading to a sturdy, though not spectacular, box office take.

So where else to go than to another typical horror flick in "The Possession". It saddens me to think that is where the momentum is heading this labor day. As much as films like "The American" and "The Constant Gardener" got more appropriate exposure here than elsewhere, it's been more positive to films like the "Halloween" remake and "Transporter 2". Expect most to tune into the Jeffrey Dean Morgan starring horror offering, though not a massive amount. Labor Day still isn't that major a holiday to merit blockbuster considerations.

Weekend Forecast: Summer ends with empty "Rush"

August has somehow managed to avoid losing steam entirely before Summer comes to its actual close, until now anyway. This weekend descends pretty deeply into what we've come to expect from this last month of the hot season, which is crass action, cash-out comedy, and amateur horror. Leading the pack is "Premium Rush", the bicycle action flick which honestly caught my interest slightly on the mention of Michael Shannon, but seems to have fizzled out. It's likely to be the main attraction this weekend, especially considering Joseph Gordon-Levitt's recent credentials as "Robin", but I wouldn't expect fruitful returns.

Even less enthusiastic is "The Apparition", a scare-of-the-week pic starring Tom Felton and Ashley Greene of "Harry Potter" and "Twilight" fame, respectively. Don't expect either of those to be enough to drag people into the theaters. Lastly on the mainstream end is "Hit and Run", which I had the painful misfortune of catching a trailer for. The thing that caught my eye most was the insistent hashtag in the corner of the screen. We have prosaically found rock bottom for the medium of cinematic promotion. The action-comedy has already tanked its opening day without even clearing $1 million. I'd expect a weekend take that doesn't even reach $5 million.

Weekend Forecast: All competition is "Expendables"

The summer blockbuster heat had unanimously died down after "The Dark Knight Rises" unusually anticlimactic first week, but there have still been a slew of wannabe actioners that have been trying to keep it alive. "The Bourne Legacy" has had a fair degree more success in that aspiration than "Total Recall" and "The Watch" have, but each new option for male audiences seems to take attention away from its predecessor. "The Expendables 2" doesn't have the franchise intelligence that "Bourne" had going for it, but that's hardly a necessity with so many 80s action icons proliferating the screen. It almost qualifies overkill if the film actually has aesthetic depth.

Since the box office majority will likely go the way of the mega-action sequel, audiences can expect smaller returns on the three other wide releases this weekend. The most promising in terms of audience affection is "Sparkle", long gaining buzz as Whitney Huston's last screen appearance. I admittedly have a place in my heart for pop-propelled cinema, but not without a genuine sense of care. I don't see it in "Sparkle", though I could end up proven wrong in time. Another significant release I have rather heavy doubts on is "ParaNorman", previously placed as my most anticipated film of the month. Excessive marketing since then has pushed it as a senselessly juvenile animated feature, rather than a piece of outstanding and terrifying originality like Laika's previous feature, "Coraline".

Weekend Forecast: "Ice Age" heats things up

I think 20th Century Fox is fully aware of the irony in releasing the films in their "Ice Age" franchise in the heat of the summer. Perhaps that's a strong reason to their success, being the most natural sense of escapism. It's also probably because the "Ice Age" franchise is one of the funniest of juvenile kids franchises. I admit that I've had an absolute ball with all three of the films so far, most especially "Dawn of the Dinosaurs". I'd be tempted to see it in theaters myself if I weren't saving up for bonus cost of IMAX for a certain feature releasing next Friday. If "Continental Drift" balloons to success this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised if it were to forestall the anticipation of Christopher Nolan's latest.

As for the holdovers, what can you expect beyond the inevitable fact that they'll continue to do well? "Spider-Man" is well on its way to scrape the bottom of $300 million by the end of its run, and it's been playing extraordinarily well overseas, so that absolutely confirms a sequel. The rest of the weekend's winnings will be split between "Ted", continuing on its summer winning streak, "Brave", and "Magic Mike". Other than that, I don't suppose we can expect a $200+ million opening for "Alps", can we?

Weekend Forecast: "Spider-Man" fights off "Savages"

"The Amazing Spider-Man" may be the buzz of the weekend, but the weekend is proving to be somewhat dicey territory for the superhero reboot. The film's been taking a box office tumble over the past few days, and it could have a tough time maintaining audience favor this weekend. The way it premiered on tuesday made it look prime for a big weekend, but now it's back down to ground level. One could expect it to go the usual way of $60+ million opening, which should be pretty positive given the recent developments. It's one of those things that's too soon to say because we don't know the trend it's on yet.

Its competitor, Oliver Stone's "Savages", could be in for a bigger debut than people are allotting it. It seems like the sort of film that draws in male centric audiences with a fever before quickly dissipating. Think "Predators" of two years ago, and the general feel that surrounded that action flick. As for holdovers, you can expect "Ted", "Magic Mike", and Brave" to all hit somewhere in the $20+ millions, which should easily put us over last year when "Zookeeper" and "Horrible Bosses" had disappointingly big debuts on their hands while "Transformers 3" continued its massive run.

Weekend Forecast: "Magic Mike" preps to be a smash

Channing Tatum is prepping to storm the box office in a huge way this weekend, and everyone seems to have their backs turned to it. For caution's sake, I'm only going to predict "Magic Mike" to debut in the mid-40s, but I honestly believe that it's going to hit higher than that. There are a few things that inform that opinion, one being the $2 million it scored in midnight showings. For an R-rated "comedy", that's spectacular. It's also got Channing Tatum to its name, and the man has never been hotter in the audience eye. Between "The Vow" and "21 Jump Street", he has been making the rounds pretty well to get to this point. What it amounts to is the most potent release of his career. Add to that the fact that the film is absolute dynamite, and you're golden.

My heart tells me to expect that Soderbergh film to mint $50+ million this weekend. As for "Brave", expect it to still hold on spectacularly, seeing as there's nothing new for kids this weekend, unless they unadvisedly walk into "Ted" thinking it's something it's not. Talking of the McFarlane debut, I expect it will do pretty well with people looking for a more overt laugh-fest. It'll find an audience, as will "Medea's Witness Protection", which should find success with Tyler Perry's existing crowd of onlookers, though I speak purely in box office terms.

Weekend Forecast: Cruise Musical vs. Sandler-Samberg

It's a very odd feeling I have concerning this weekend, especially in comparison to last. Consider the general head-space regarding last weekend. "Prometheus", a film with through the roof anticipation, and "Madagascar 3", a film from a company who is known for entertaining at a hyperactive level, were both being released. Both of those films debuted over $50 million, and yet they both proved disappointing to me personally. Mind you, I'm never surprised when a bad film rakes in a surplus of cash, but I didn't truly believe these films would turn out so ill-forged. That said, both films will do very well this weekend, along with the mix of new releases.

What gives it a strange dynamic is that I am suddenly rather excited to see "Rock of Ages". I have no love for the jukebox musical sub-genre, but the cast of this film coupled with some fantastic musical numbers is enough to spark interest for me. It simply looks like more fun than has been in the theaters for a while, likely since "The Avengers" hit multiplex's. On the other side of this weekend, "That's My Boy" will do its share in the box office because it's Father's Day weekend, it's a comedy, and it stars crowd magnates Adam Sandler and Andy Samberg. College age boys will be doing some majorly hedonistic male bonding on this one.