OSCAR 2012: Pre-Fall films spark enduring interest

It's been a particularly dry patch at the theaters, given that it's been more than a month since wide release yielded any particular gems. The last new release I caught in theaters was "The Dark Knight Rises", and somehow that just didn't light a fire for the end of summer. Even a handful of my most anticipated films of this month are already falling from grace. "The Bourne Legacy" seems to be receiving a universal yawn from critics wondering how this story couldn't have booted up into an entirely new franchise. I caught a preview for "ParaNorman" recently that entirely doused my interest in the film, which seems to be trading heavily in hollow and substance-less wit rather than genuine magic.

So I've taken the time to revisit some rather positive cinematic revelations of the recent past, and it's beginning to show how much of a splash these films could make in the awards season conversation. We're bound to see one or two films not meet expectations, but on the most part the fall slate is seeming to have a pretty massive hold on the Academy's interest. "Argo", "Les Miserables", "Life of Pi", "Lincoln", and "The Master" remain prominent figures on the schedules, and we'll see rises and falls depending on how those play with audiences and critics. But there are more than a few films from this first half of the year that I suspect will figure into the conversation more than they have been.

Box Office Report: "Recall" falters as cinema recovers

It's been a solid two weeks since I tuned in on the box office, for the most part because it's had quite a downward tumble in the wake of the Aurora shootings. It was expected that we'd have a dry rest of the season following "The Dark Knight Rises", but audiences have generally felt rather shy and hesitant regarding cinematic endeavors of recent weeks. Out of lack of options, I only revisited the theater recently, all to share the experience of "Magic Mike" with somebody else. It feels like the trip to see a movie has taken on a greater symbolic meaning, as it's about the act of sharing with somebody, amongst a theater of similarly bound individuals.

Thus it makes sense that "Total Recall" didn't really call out to audiences as joyous experience to share. Perhaps on some father-son level, but outside the male crowd, I don't see this playing too widely. Even there, most guys are still experiencing "The Dark Knight Rises", which is growing a few stronger legs than it initially had. The weight of critical disappointment and the unfortunate event that introduced it to theaters took its toll in a very frontloaded fashion. That's working to the film's advantage now, as some stragglers are coming along to it, and if for no other reason than not having better options, plenty are revisiting.

Box Office Report: "Dark Knight" rises amidst tragedy

No box office analysts could have predicted the turn this weekend would take, and everything stopped dead in its tracks when news came up from Friday morning. Box office statistic were thoughtfully abated until Monday, so as to not trivialize the tragic events looming over this weekend. Needless to say "The Dark Knight Rises" probably would have fared much better had none of this happened, with some saying it was on track for upwards of $200 million, stomping out "The Avengers"' stronghold over this summer. Christopher Nolan action flick still did rather well in comparison to ordinary releases, even if it didn't come close to setting records. Expect this film to just barely skip past $400 million by the end of its run.

Box office in general took a heavy dive this weekend; with scarcely a single film dropping below 50%. The two occasions in the top ten were "Brave", likely benefiting from the "go out and see a film without people you love" statement many pushed at the start of the weekend. "The Amazing Spider-Man" took the nastiest dive, smothering chances of it getting anywhere close to $300 million. "Ted" is seeming more and more like the success story of the summer, playing favorably with most crowds. Indie films "Moonrise Kingdom" and "To Rome With Love" continue to be some of the strongest holders on the box office.

Box Office Report: "Ice Age" melts as "Moonrise" rises

We may be getting stuck in the doldrums of summer, I fear. A weekend filled with films earning a lot of money is garnering merely a shrug out of me. Admittedly, that's much the way I am during the summer, with "Moonrise Kingdom" being the only success story that merits emotional resonance from me. The audience circus that is box office stats, while I occasionally enjoy commenting on it, wanes with the years as the sums get larger and real success seems a much smaller thing. For example, on some scale "The Amazing Spider-Man" is doing rather well. It's on its way toward $300 million by the end of its run. And yet not only is it meager in the face of the success of the original "Spider-Man" and "Spider-Man 2", but it'll barely register by the year's end.

True box office achievements are stated by two things: 1) the exceptional quality of the film it belongs to ("Twilight" and "Hunger Games" do not count), and 2) contrast to the average box office of its type of film. Take "Moonrise Kingdom" for example, as usually indie films do not register with mainstream audiences. Not only is it continuing to fare extremely well throughout the summer, but it also happens to be Wes Anderson's most inspiring creation to date. Contrast that with "Ice Age: Continental Drift", which opened in line with its predecessors, sure, but nearly $15+ million below any of the other major animated openings this year. Add to that reviews similar to those of every other film in the franchise, we get something that's not all that interesting to comment on.

Weekend Forecast: "Ice Age" heats things up

I think 20th Century Fox is fully aware of the irony in releasing the films in their "Ice Age" franchise in the heat of the summer. Perhaps that's a strong reason to their success, being the most natural sense of escapism. It's also probably because the "Ice Age" franchise is one of the funniest of juvenile kids franchises. I admit that I've had an absolute ball with all three of the films so far, most especially "Dawn of the Dinosaurs". I'd be tempted to see it in theaters myself if I weren't saving up for bonus cost of IMAX for a certain feature releasing next Friday. If "Continental Drift" balloons to success this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised if it were to forestall the anticipation of Christopher Nolan's latest.

As for the holdovers, what can you expect beyond the inevitable fact that they'll continue to do well? "Spider-Man" is well on its way to scrape the bottom of $300 million by the end of its run, and it's been playing extraordinarily well overseas, so that absolutely confirms a sequel. The rest of the weekend's winnings will be split between "Ted", continuing on its summer winning streak, "Brave", and "Magic Mike". Other than that, I don't suppose we can expect a $200+ million opening for "Alps", can we?

Box Office Report: "Spider-Man" leads "Amazing" weekend

My worries of a large dip for "Amazing Spider-Man" were apparently unfounded, as the film performed rather positivity anyway. The more I dwell on it, the more I think this proposed trilogy is salvageable, provided they find the right director for the follow-up (can I start by pitching David Cronenberg?). Sure, the reboot didn't perform nearly the same numbers as any of Raimi's trilogy, but reboots generally have a tough time inspiring new followers. In comparison, it's fared much better than the openings for "Batman Begins", "Superman Returns", or "The Incredible Hulk" ($48.7, $52.5, & 55.4, respectively). The film is tracking for a $300 million finish, which is fantastic with all things considered.

The real success story of the summer, currently, continues to be "Ted", to which aspirations were made to "The Hangover" very early on. Seth MacFarlane's talking-teddy comedy is holding extremely well, and considering there isn't a comedy to steal its audience for another three weeks, one could expect it to continue its victory run. Talking of which, "Brave" continues to be a return to form for Pixar, at least in terms of box office success. It seems destined for the same average as predecessors such as "Cars" and "WALL-E". "Savages" fell to a middling status debut, despite aspirations of wider audience acceptance.

Weekend Forecast: "Spider-Man" fights off "Savages"

"The Amazing Spider-Man" may be the buzz of the weekend, but the weekend is proving to be somewhat dicey territory for the superhero reboot. The film's been taking a box office tumble over the past few days, and it could have a tough time maintaining audience favor this weekend. The way it premiered on tuesday made it look prime for a big weekend, but now it's back down to ground level. One could expect it to go the usual way of $60+ million opening, which should be pretty positive given the recent developments. It's one of those things that's too soon to say because we don't know the trend it's on yet.

Its competitor, Oliver Stone's "Savages", could be in for a bigger debut than people are allotting it. It seems like the sort of film that draws in male centric audiences with a fever before quickly dissipating. Think "Predators" of two years ago, and the general feel that surrounded that action flick. As for holdovers, you can expect "Ted", "Magic Mike", and Brave" to all hit somewhere in the $20+ millions, which should easily put us over last year when "Zookeeper" and "Horrible Bosses" had disappointingly big debuts on their hands while "Transformers 3" continued its massive run.

Film Review: "Magic Mike" (****)

Matthew McConaughey takes the stage, back to the camera as he takes his passion to the crowd of screaming girls. As he peruses his own body, gloriously drinking in the glory of himself as the audience is, he repeatedly asks the question, "Can you touch this?" That seems to be the question that Soderbergh and company are faced with in "Magic Mike", as everyone is heading into this with certain preconceptions regarding what they will be seeing. I walked in knowing nothing other than the simple fact of Channing Tatum playing a male stripper, which seems like such a coy play for laughs, and could easily end up as such in another world.

Fascinatingly enough, the thing that puts "Magic Mike" automatically on the right course is the least thing you'd be expecting, that being Channing Tatum. The word that this film takes cues from Tatum's earlier career has not escaped audiences, but that brings a certain honesty to the table that would otherwise not exist. Even more respectable of Tatum is his refusal to put himself at the center of this world, building other elements to the world Mike inhabits. The film is absolutely his story, but everyone involved is working desperately to remove that imposition, not for the loss of personality, but for the sake of the audience it is made for.

Weekend Forecast: "Magic Mike" preps to be a smash

Channing Tatum is prepping to storm the box office in a huge way this weekend, and everyone seems to have their backs turned to it. For caution's sake, I'm only going to predict "Magic Mike" to debut in the mid-40s, but I honestly believe that it's going to hit higher than that. There are a few things that inform that opinion, one being the $2 million it scored in midnight showings. For an R-rated "comedy", that's spectacular. It's also got Channing Tatum to its name, and the man has never been hotter in the audience eye. Between "The Vow" and "21 Jump Street", he has been making the rounds pretty well to get to this point. What it amounts to is the most potent release of his career. Add to that the fact that the film is absolute dynamite, and you're golden.

My heart tells me to expect that Soderbergh film to mint $50+ million this weekend. As for "Brave", expect it to still hold on spectacularly, seeing as there's nothing new for kids this weekend, unless they unadvisedly walk into "Ted" thinking it's something it's not. Talking of the McFarlane debut, I expect it will do pretty well with people looking for a more overt laugh-fest. It'll find an audience, as will "Medea's Witness Protection", which should find success with Tyler Perry's existing crowd of onlookers, though I speak purely in box office terms.

Films to See in 2012: June

May always does seem like more of a smooth transition into Summer than a direct onslaught. Now we're in June, where the blockbuster offerings come in great numbers, and all the better for it since there are bound to be a few that fall rather predictably. In the first week alone we have "Snow White and the Huntsman", which I can only greet with skepticism since it doesn't look to be an honest film by any means. "Mirror Mirror" has gained a wide array of differing opinions, but you cannot call it dishonest for the direction it took that story. The Kristen Stewart actioner seems to be simply to turn the story into something it isn't.

Also out that weekend are "Battlefield America" and "For Greater Glory", two films I'd previously not heard of until they were announced for wide releases. Exactly how wide that implies remains to be seen. In limited release, surprisingly, is "Piranha 3DD", which is likely to meet a quick and sudden death if expectations serve. It's thew following week that things really start picking up for the better. Amongst other things, "Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted" hits the stage, which should serve as acceptable entertaining for kids, and maybe just enough for adults too. If not much more, Dreamworks does have a tendency to be at least fun.