OSCAR 2011: The Winners and Why

Last night's Academy Awards was, to say the least, surprising, but not necessarily in a good way. In fact, I have to admit I would have been a lot happier if we had absolutely no surprises. Realistically, that didn't happen, and we got plenty of shocking moments that simply didn't need to happen. "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" took home an Oscar for the absolute worst aspect of the film. "Hugo" took awards for technical aspects that simply didn't support it, all the while I was reminded of how soulless a feature Scorsese's latest was. But if there's a single win that defines the disappointment I feel this morning, it's Meryl Streep winning Best Actress.

From the very start of the evening, we saw Viola Davis absolutely working it on the red carpet, and I couldn't have felt happier for her. This was her night, and the Academy refused to recognize it. If she had taken the stage, last night would have been absolutely perfect in my memory. I don't blame Meryl Streep for winning. You have to blame the Academy for simply making the wrong decision and not voting on what's simply better and more deserving. Meryl Streep didn't need another award, but even more than that, her getting countless awards for performances like this is like giving Adam Sandler an Oscar for "Jack and Jill" because he was great in "Punch-Drunk Love" in the past. For the most part, however, I was pleased with what was predicted to win "The Artist"s wins were extremely heartfelt, and "A Separation" was just a great moment.

AWARDS 2011: Indie Spirit Winners

Well no, I can't say that really worked out to well for my predictions. With hopes for "Drive", "Take Shelter", and "Shame" to pick up some well deserved accolades this afternoon, none of that happened. The result was a decidedly indifferent afternoon of doling out awards to "The Artist", "The Descendants", "Beginners", "My Week with Marilyn", and... well, whatever. Point is, this simply did not do, and that's all I have to say about that.

Best Feature: "The Artist"

Best Actor: Jean Dujardin ("The Artist")

Best Actress: Michele Williams ("My Week with Marilyn")

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer ("Beginners")

Best Supporting Actress: Shailene Woodley ("The Descendants")

Ranking 2011's Oscar Nominated Films

I've had the feeling that I saw less Oscar nominated movies this year than in previous years. Not so. In fact I feel less complete in Oscar knowledge this year than in previous years when I had seen more films nominated. This year, it scales out to 24, only 5 of which I'd profess to truly love, and only one of those is nominated where it most matters. "Drive" only has one nomination to its name. The worst film I saw of the bunch, until today, was "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2", and it has three, which I suppose is somewhat deserving, but it only repeats the Academy's favoritism towards glitzy, gaudy, and obvious.

If nothing else, this gives me an outlet for ranking some of the other films that didn't make the cut past the top 20. I have no doubt people will think I'm crazy in ranking "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" above "The Tree of Life", "The Descendants", and "The Adventures of Tintin", but for the life of me I had more of an experience in Michael Bay's rampant actioner than I did with those that rank lower than it. Anything lower than 20, I did not like, so the majority of the films nominated that I've seen, I do enjoy them. I think that they are rather good. It doesn't change the fact that there are better films out there that simply aren't being represented here, and that's a shame.

OSCAR 2011 PREDICTIONS: Best Picture

This is the absolute last race that anybody wants to talk about, because we all know inevitably what it's going to be. "The Artist" is going to win, and I still feel decidedly undecided in respects to that win. Why the hell do I feel that way? Because even though I love "The Artist" more than any other film in this category, I am still rather looking for some kind of adventurous buzz from the Oscars. I want something exciting to happen that will radiate vibes and talks to be bandied about for weeks. For several weeks, I did not have a film that I really wanted to champion. I look at the list of nine, and I honestly don't care enough about really any of them. Not even "The Artist".

Then last Friday I revisited "Moneyball", Bennett Miller's math-behind-baseball film that was well liked back in September, but lost its heat since then. It's easy to flash an indifferent eye its way, and in fact in many other situations I would. But I keep on circling back to a line that I believe defines the situation that the Academy Awards happen to be in right now. "I know these guys. I know the way they think, and they will erase us. And everything we've done here; None of it will matter." In going across every single category, I find the films that will win are never the ones I'd want. I don't have any feeling of satisfactions about the group that the Academy assembles as the best in these particular fields.

That's where I get off sore. "Moneyball" is a film that's entirely about the undervalued, and it's been greatly undervalued time and again this year. Mind you, it's far from my favorite film of the year, and in fact it didn't even crack the honorable mentions with me. I just adore the message it would send if it did win that impossible win. But I suppose I can't feel too bad about my favorite film of the bunch, "The Artist", winning on Sunday either. I just get annoyed with what they've fill the categories with this year. There is a far better group of nominees that have been criminally overlooked in this particular year. It seems so easy to make the right decision, but this year they just fouled up as hard as ever.

OSCAR 2011 PREDICTIONS: Adapted Screenplay

I'm not alone in my over-enthusiasm for the grand portion of the screenplay nominations this year. Along with the spectacular triad of "Midnight in Paris", "The Artist", and "A Separation" over in the original screenplay bracket, we again have three rather deserving nods here, along with two deliveries of Academy filler. By that, I speak inevitably of "The Descendants", which is more than likely to win for its light and toothless addressing of family issues, alongside some odd attempts at humor. I'm also talking about "Hugo", whose script may be the biggest thing that this piece has against it. The film's beauty may have washed over me if it weren't scripted so painfully obvious.

But escaping those problem factors that will of course win, there are some mighty fine nominations here. "The Ides of March" is a surprise, and a pleasant one at that. The film may be no massive success, but it is quite entertainingly constructed, especially through its charming off-the-tongue dialogue. You can consider me an apologist on behalf of "Moneyball", whose script I've bashed for not quite being the same level of charm as "The Social Network", but these are honestly two different beasts. This one has frills in different places, and it just happens to be handling a subject that's not of such scintillating excitement. There are plenty moments where the script was to such a tee that it made me feel something.

OSCAR 2011 PREDICTIONS: Film Editing

I shudder at the quality of the nominees masquerading in the film editing department of this year's Oscar race. It's to be expected that the frontrunner is always a player, so I'll forgive "The Artist". Of all its below-the-line skills, editing isn't the most deserving, but it'll suffice more than the others. My greatest complaint of "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" was the choppy as all hell editing job, and it's only beat out by how obscure the work on "Hugo" was and how plainly unimaginative "The Descendants" was. If the world is a good place, they'll give it to "Moneyball", the unsung technical marvel of this year. But that won't happen.

Box Office Update: "Vow" for "Safe" "Journey", Despite "Menace"

I didn't really hold strong hopes for this box office weekend, but it has fared about as well as the year for the whole part has so far. Last year was a long and drawn-out nightmare of a year in terms of the box office. There was simply nothing of real spectacle happening, so despite the mildly disappointing films the money's headed towards, it's still satisfying to see an invigoration towards the theatrical experience. I had worried that this weekend would pale in comparison to last year, when that Justin Bieber movie and "Just Go With It" ruled the box office. I guess I underestimated the Valentine's Day weekend draw of Channing Tatum, Denzel Washington, and... 3D, apparently.

"The Vow" clearly played to the right demographic this weekend, and as such reaped the majority of the weekend's winning. "Safe House" played more to the date-night-action-flick crowd, falling just a tad short of its competition. Both are likely to be frontloaded openings likely to fall immensely come next weekend. "Journey 2" and "Star Wars" managed to split the 3D winnings this weekend, so clearly the problem of not having enough 3D screens that we dealt with just two years ago isn't anything to worry about now. The weekend ended up a 31% increase upon last year, so this year is proving to be a pretty strong bounce-back from last year.

AWARDS 2011: "Hugo" Leads the Oscar Nods

Well, that could have gone a great deal better, couldn't it. I'm not happy about the Oscar nominations, but I'll save the endless rant till much later today. There's much work be done here. Until then, grind out your own grievances against this slate of nods while I go off in the corner and cry for an hour.

Best Picture

"The Artist"
"The Descendants"
"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
"The Help"
"Hugo"
"Midnight in Paris"
"Moneyball"
"The Tree of Life"
"War Horse"

AWARDS 2011: WGA Nominations Skew Disaffected

The WGA has had a notorious penchant for nominating inaccurate films for screenwriting, as they cancel out so many films on strict rules. Therefore, the little interest I usually muster for awards isn't even available now. It's a slow crawl to nomination morning, when all the silliness finally fades from the world and we can start talking not-really-that-seriously.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

• "The Descendants"
  
• "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
  
• "The Help"
  
• "Hugo"
  
• "Moneyball"

Best Original Screenplay:

• "Bridesmaids"
  
• "50/50"
  
• "Midnight in Paris"
  
• "Win Win"
  
• "Young Adult"

Best Documentary Screenplay:

• "Better This World"
  
• "If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front"
  
• "Nostalgia for the Light"
  
• "Pina"
  
• "Position Among the Stars"
• "Senna"

AWARDS 2011: PGA go for regulars, plus "Dragon Tattoo"

The producers guild are down to their dirty deeds once more, continuing to officially endorse the films which we all know will be nominated for Best Picture. There's little straying from the course at this point. It's probably going to be a seven film race this year, and if there's three below that are probably not going to make it, they're "Bridesmaids", "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo", and "The Ides of March". The rest are just cruising towards nomination day. I would like to see eight films make the cut, and who's to count out that possibility? If there's a film of the three discounted that could likely make it, it would be "Ides of March", which would be a nice capper to a decidedly dicey road it's been on.

Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

• "The Artist"
• "Bridesmaids"
• "The Descendants"
• "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
• "The Help"

Box Office Update: "Impossible" overshadows "Sherlock"'s game

The latest "Holmes" flick is a tricky contraption of sort, wavering between bigger & better and louder & crasser than the first flick. Keep in mind, that first one had a great many detractors for me, but it came almost out of nowhere and created a dark atmosphere very in tune with director Guy Richie's other films, but it finally works here. In "A Game of Shadows", not so much. Mind you, I'll get slightly more in depth with my thoughts on the film later on, but for now it's simply worth representing how the box office dip between the first and the second films is indicative of the time there is to be had on each. They spent 30% more, and ended up with 30% less.

Not to say that it was a total failure. $40 million is still $40 million, even if there's a strong degree of work left to go. That's why we have the Christmas break to burgeon these opportunities. And even outside "Holmes", we saw strong signs for the box office. "Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked", in spite of horrid reviews, picked up its child audience skillfully without a hitch. Sure, it's not quite as much as they wanted, but they get what they payed for. They're rather good at that. But the big success story of the weekend was "Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol", which picked up a hefty sum from its IMAX screens this weekend. That allied with the advanced buzz that is bound to boost its overall income means that it could very well be the massive hit of the holiday season, as well it should be. Check the charts after the jump.

AWARDS 2011: Broadcast Film Critics nominations hit

If I'm pretty damn far behind the beat, it's because more important things in real life have taken up the place of my attention span, however cramped it may be. So now I get along to the BFCA nominations, which remain a mere glyph for what the Oscars might be. The nods are mostly predictable in the vein of what you'd expect. The only thing really worth raising a glass to is Nick Nolte being nominated for supporting actor for "Warrior". Still need to see that one, but I've heard solid things going for the man.

BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Box Office Update: Validation of a Fact

If the box office charts are a scale of the population's state of mind, then this year has been as singularly depressing as I've repeatedly said it is. This weekend seemed to be in the bag for "New Year's Eve" and "The Sitter", but the fact of the matter is that at this time of the year, people are more interested in seeing something that's actually good. The obvious brand of pandering comedies have done poorly in this month for the past several years. At this point, people are genuinely interested in seeing the films that are going to be Academy players in a couple of weeks.

Case in point? There's more interest to be found in the independent releases of this week. "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" took in $300,000 this weekend out of four theaters. "Young Adult" brought in $320,000 from eight theaters, which isn't as strong a per theater average as its competitor, but the buzz has been decidedly laid back on this one. This isn't another Oscar play from Jason Reitman, and he's opted out of the circus altogether. And in the meantime, "A Dangerous Method", "The Artist", "My Week with Marilyn", and especially "Shame" have been surging strong in the wings. This weekend proved to be the lowest box office weekend for the entire year, but we're headed towards a more fruitful slate for the endgame of this year.

Box Office Update: "Dawn" & "Muppets" rules dull weekend

The box office saw its first down weekend in a while, which is honestly surprising given the strength of the films in play. I'm not about to call "Twilight" anything special, but it keeps the box office on a steady level. "Breaking Dawn" is irrevocably failing to keep interest even in its own market. "The Muppets" too is having some down times. That debut may have been a bit too frontloaded, with a nearly 60% dip not painting a fortunate future. All the same, the film has the opportunity for a wide berth of repeat viewings in the coming weeks towards the holiday season. And in its defense, this weekend is a busy time for most people, hence why no films came in wide release. It's a bad frame for it. The rest aren't quite worth mentioning.

1. "Breaking Dawn" (Third Weekend; $16.9 million)

2. "The Muppets" (Second Weekend; $11.2 million)

3. "Hugo" (Second Weekend; $7.6 million)

4. "Arthur Christmas" (Second Weekend; $7.4 million)

5. "Happy Feet Two" (Third Weekend; $6 million)

6. "Jack and Jill" (Fourth Weekend; $5.5 million)

7. "The Descendants" (Third Weekend; $5.2 million)

8. "Immortals" (Fourth Weekend; $4.4 million)

9. "Tower Heist" (Fifth Weekend; $4.1 million)

10. "Puss in Boots" (Sixth Weekend; $3 million)

AWARDS 2011: National Board of Review throws "Hugo" into the race

If we were shrugging in a somewhat disgruntled manner when the New York Film Critics Circle announced their winners on Tuesday, the National Board of Review managed to inject a bit of personality into this race. How so? Well I don't think people were quite on board with "Hugo"s Best Picture chances until just now. With Scorsese and his film taking the top prizes from NBR, which was highly expected to go to "The Artist" and Michel Hazanavicius, it feels like there's new blood in there. What gets me even further buzzed is that Tilda Swinton took the Best Actress prize for her amazing performance in "We Need to Talk About Kevin". Fingers crossed that at least this one sticks.

The wins for "The Descendants" and "Beginners", on the other hand, were pretty predictable and within the grain of what we expected. The wins for "50/50" and "Margin Call", on the other hand, are just plain silly. Their top ten are considerably more interesting than I had originally diagnosed this season, but I don't imagine this bunch will all make it to the film list, least of which "Drive", "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo", and for entirely different reasons, "J. Edgar" and "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2".

BEST FILM: "Hugo"

BEST DIRECTOR: Martin Scorsese ("Hugo")

BEST ACTOR: George Clooney ("The Descendants")

BEST ACTRESS: Tilda Swinton ("We Need to Talk About Kevin")

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christopher Plummer ("Beginners")

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Shailene Woodley ("The Descendants")

AWARDS 2011: "Drive" & "Beginners" Dominate Indie Spirit Nods

Let me quickly clarify that this was hell to speed write out all the nominations as they were announced via twitter. Give a guy a chance to breathe! All the same, it was really quite fantastic to finally be in the rush of awards season, especially when we're starting in such great fashion. The Film Independent Spirit Awards nominations are really the best way to kick off the season which ends in the bitter disappointment of the Oscars. Of course there are quite a few films that I still don't care for, primarily "The Descendants", and as time ticks by "The Artist". I am not spent on "Beginners" yet, as the film was really quite charming, and its resurgence here gives me enough pause to see it again and reevaluate it.

Still haven't seen "50/50", which doesn't seem as spectacular as it once did, and I expect to get branded by everyone I love for not falling for it. I never got the chance to see it, sadly enough. Fortunately, "Take Shelter" is coming around the bend for me to get in just under the wire for this year. And I've even more ecstatic about "Drive" making such a strong surge for the Indie Spirits. With each passing second it seems all the more like the "Black Swan" of this year. It was nice to see "Martha Marcy May Marlene" to get some love under the main line. What wasn't nice was the almost complete alienation of "Shame", which left Fassbender and Mulligan out of the races, much to my disdain. I'll survive. This is still a nice batch.

BEST PICTURE

-"50/50"

-"Beginners"

-"Drive"

-"Take Shelter"

-"The Artist"

-"The Descendants"

BEST DIRECTOR

-Mike Mills ("Beginners")

-Nicolas Winding Refn ("Drive")

-Jeff Nichols ("Take Shelter")

-Michel Hazanavicius ("The Artist")

-Alexandre Payne ("The Descendants")

Carpet-Bagging: Before the gates open

We are in the last seconds of the pre-awards season, with the New York Film Critics Circle just on the edge of announcing their victors. We can be ready for a handful of surprises when we see exactly where the critics actually swing in their decisions. At the same time, don't be disappointed if the cards land exactly where we expect them to. The current frontrunners are still "The Artist", "The Descendants", and now effectively "War Horse". The trailer placed it as a winning and simple crowdpleaser several months ago, and even then I knew this was a lock for a nod. If you know me well enough, that also means I despised it quite fervently.

It's not that it's not pretty, but I have a much stronger pull to see the stage play and all its unique design elements than this relatively simple and straightforward exercise in spine-chilling. In the meantime, I continued my general cynicism against "The Descendants", which it's a shame when you employ such against an Alexander Payne film and not for it. I quite liked "Sideways", but I can feel the strands that were leading Payne towards this sort of conclusion. George Clooney is the frontrunner in the Best Actor race, and I doubt that's likely to deflate. Who's going to come in and steal the spotlight?

Jean Dujardin? As interesting an idea as that might be, he's pretty much just a nominee here, in the same vein as Christoph Waltz came along in 2009. He's bound to get a lot of offers after this film, and maybe one of them will bring him back around here, but he's not going to gallop away with this one. "The Artist", in the meantime, does have a strong inclination towards Best Picture, but the closer an opportunity it becomes, the less I see in it. It's really starting to seem more disingenuous a treat than the trailer lets on. 150 seconds conveys perhaps everything that the 90 minute film does, if my cynical non-viewer take on it proves fruitful enough.

So what else has shifted? Well, in case you hadn't noticed, the entire Best Picture race has skewed to becoming almost entirely sweet and obnoxiously endearing, even beyond the three frontrunners. I've already lamented about "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close", but I have even more reason to complain now that "Hugo" has entered the conversation quite boldly in comparison. That does give me pause enough to question why I didn't see it while I had the chance over Thanksgiving, but even more over the overlap of the two films' plots. They're practically the same, with the core difference being that Scorsese's film uses breathtaking technologies in a way it's not been seen before and as a tool to give tribute to the past. Stephen Daldry's film is trying to yank those tears out of your eyes in the most manipulative and predictable of ways.

Box Office Update: "Dawn" Breaks B.O. Sanity

I think that if there's anything that is embellished by this weekend, or rather the year as a tedious whole, is that where "Harry Potter" may have some kind of staying power on its side, "Twilight" is an extremely frontloaded vehicle. True, both gain most of their earnings from the opening weekends alone, and they're very similar in that respect. They're also similar in that people outside the franchise don't care too much. "Potter" is done for, and after visiting it again recently, I hate it even more. I know. I clearly have no soul. "Twilight" is also on its way out. Slowly. Very needlessly slowly at that. The first part of their "Breaking Dawn" finale collected just $3 million below the opening "New Moon" mustered. Still a success for such an abysmal franchise.

Talking of abysmal, "Happy Feet Two" managed to fail in a much more obvious manner. Sure, $22 million is somewhat honest for a film opening opposite a vehicle like "Twilight". It's weak compared the grosses the last film mustered, mostly from kids, but also from penguin obsessed girls. Obsession is the main device that fuels the box office season, no matter the demographic. All other candidates this week fell greatly due to the opposition. Still, the weekend was an advance upon last year's pre-Thanksgiving frame.

1. "Breaking Dawn: Part 1" (First Weekend; $139.5 million)

2. "Happy Feet Two" (First Weekend; $22 million)

3. "Immortals" (Second Weekend; $12.2 million)

4. "Jack and Jill" (Second Weekend; $12 million)

5. "Puss in Boots" (Fourth Weekend; $10.7 million)

6. "Tower Heist" (Third Weekend; $7 million)

7. "J. Edgar" (Second Weekend; $5.9 million)

8. "Harold and Kumar" (Third Weekend; $2.9 million)

9. "In Time" (Fourth Weekend; $1.7 million)

10. "The Descendants" (First Weekend; $1.2 million)

Oscar Park: "The Descendants"

I've fallen a great deal behind on Oscar Park, mostly because after "The Ides of March" came and went without me having the chance to see it, I didn't know much the point in predicting without seeing. But then again, I can guess pretty straightly accurate when it comes to "The Descendants" without even seeing it. The normative academy mindset is playing right into Alexander Payne's hands with this one, and I'm not about to launch an all out knock against the film, but it's a pretty simple joy to be sure. I know where this is going without even seeing it, which makes the predicting game short work.

In the Academy eye, "The Descendants" is a lock most categories out there. Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay fall right in line with expectations, but Director may be somewhat off. I don't think anyone's going to call this a director's show in the slightest, and I'm just waiting to accost it on nominations day when Payne inevitably gets a nod anyway. George Clooney is all the buzz for this film, and he's really seeming like the frontrunner at this moment, but that's what we all said two years ago about "Up in the Air". Things can change ever so quickly in this game, and Clooney might end up falling into his own trap again. Below the line, there's absolutely nothing to be had. I'd count that as solid an indication as any of this film's true merits. It's no more or less than five nods, and that's not up for debate.

For Your Anticipation: All the ____ Happening

I know that I'm probably the only one who's going to be down on "The Descendants" these days, but what the hell is Alexandre Payne doing? The moment this trailer hit, I thought to myself "This looks boring." Family in pain with humor being used as antidote rather than augmentation of tragedy. This looks too damn cheerful. I don't care if somebody ends up dying. I doubt I'll feel anything. There just doesn't look to be enough going on here.