OSCAR 2011 PREDICTIONS: Adapted Screenplay

I'm not alone in my over-enthusiasm for the grand portion of the screenplay nominations this year. Along with the spectacular triad of "Midnight in Paris", "The Artist", and "A Separation" over in the original screenplay bracket, we again have three rather deserving nods here, along with two deliveries of Academy filler. By that, I speak inevitably of "The Descendants", which is more than likely to win for its light and toothless addressing of family issues, alongside some odd attempts at humor. I'm also talking about "Hugo", whose script may be the biggest thing that this piece has against it. The film's beauty may have washed over me if it weren't scripted so painfully obvious.

But escaping those problem factors that will of course win, there are some mighty fine nominations here. "The Ides of March" is a surprise, and a pleasant one at that. The film may be no massive success, but it is quite entertainingly constructed, especially through its charming off-the-tongue dialogue. You can consider me an apologist on behalf of "Moneyball", whose script I've bashed for not quite being the same level of charm as "The Social Network", but these are honestly two different beasts. This one has frills in different places, and it just happens to be handling a subject that's not of such scintillating excitement. There are plenty moments where the script was to such a tee that it made me feel something.

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Adapted Screenplay

This is the most set in stone race of this year's Oscar ceremony, because by now there isn't anything that could possibly stand in the way of Aaron Sorkin winning for The Social Network, as he deserves. The dialogue moves at such a clip that you almost look over how articulate, precise, and witty it is, not to mention the emotional journey it carries the characters on so wonderfully. If Sorkin can bring this level of success to everything he does from here on out, we're looking at a full and prosperous late career. However, for my part, I skew towards something a bit more off the beaten path. There was just so much that I loved about the screenplay for Winter's Bone, and though the performances were top notch, they'd have crumbled if not allied by such a strong script. I may be the only one who believes that, but that's my position.

The rest might as well be manure, but they're worth mentioning anyway. Toy Story 3, despite a few predictable jokes here and there, managed to maintain the quality of the previous two, as well as push the emotional potential of the story to new heights. True Grit succeeded in being the funniest film of the year with some of Joel & Ethan Coen's wittiest monologues and conversations to date. 127 Hours, in my opinion, isn't all that deserving of this spot, but it still did its part to bring us into Aron Ralston's crisis.

1. Winter's Bone
2. The Social Network
3. Toy Story 3
4. True Grit
5. 127 Hours

Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: Winter's Bone
Potential Upset: NONE
Should Have Been Nominated: Rabbit Hole