Oscar Park: "The Descendants"

I've fallen a great deal behind on Oscar Park, mostly because after "The Ides of March" came and went without me having the chance to see it, I didn't know much the point in predicting without seeing. But then again, I can guess pretty straightly accurate when it comes to "The Descendants" without even seeing it. The normative academy mindset is playing right into Alexander Payne's hands with this one, and I'm not about to launch an all out knock against the film, but it's a pretty simple joy to be sure. I know where this is going without even seeing it, which makes the predicting game short work.

In the Academy eye, "The Descendants" is a lock most categories out there. Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay fall right in line with expectations, but Director may be somewhat off. I don't think anyone's going to call this a director's show in the slightest, and I'm just waiting to accost it on nominations day when Payne inevitably gets a nod anyway. George Clooney is all the buzz for this film, and he's really seeming like the frontrunner at this moment, but that's what we all said two years ago about "Up in the Air". Things can change ever so quickly in this game, and Clooney might end up falling into his own trap again. Below the line, there's absolutely nothing to be had. I'd count that as solid an indication as any of this film's true merits. It's no more or less than five nods, and that's not up for debate.

Carpet-Bagging: Supp. Actress is dead on arrival

Yesterday I talked a great deal about the supporting actor race, which was far from concrete and boasted plenty of weak performances in roles of the Academy mold as well as strong performances that are far outside that mold. For men in cinema, it often relies on that key factor of going for the gut. The key job of a supporting actor is often to be that antagonistic presence, and that's what's payed off most in the past. The supporting actress branch is often seen as something quite different, but history has shown that inclination to believe female winners aren't as vicious performances as men to be false.

Mo'Nique in "Precious" is the prime example of that, but also Melissa Leo ("The Fighter") and Penelope Cruz ("Vicky Christina Barcelona") in a certain way. They're not hardcore villains, as they have redeeming factors, but they've got those unstable problems in them. I'd like to think the trend will continue, but I can't say anything for certain. After all, the most assured nomination in this category for this year thus far, is Octavia Spencer for "The Help". God willing, she's not going to ever be the frontrunner this year. Not that I don't like her performance, but there as absolutely nothing spectacular about it.