This year's Oscar race is going to get intense within the next few months. Right now, most people are feeling quite confident in their predictions, despite the fact that they might change in a heartbeat if a monumental release comes and steals the show. However, I think it's a pretty safe bet to say that the main conflict in this year's race is going to be between Tom Hooper's The King's Speech and David Fincher's The Social Network. 127 Hours was getting some good fuel from Telluride and Toronto and has a decent chance at snagging a nod, but it's nowhere near the potency necessary to take on the top two.
It is mostly a matter of filling up the seven remaining spots, which isn't at all an easy feat to accomplish. Winter's Bone is still an undoubtedly great film, but it just doesn't have the spark needed to hold onto it's position on the chart. Never Let Me Go doesn't have a chance, so if anybody's still talking about that film as a possibility, they're mistaken. Most people have Toy Story 3, The Kids Are All Right, and Inception locked for nominations, and I don't have any arguments on that point. They've worked hard to secure their spots, despite talk of them being too mainstream or being released in the summer.
That leaves a good four spots left, one of which easily goes to Another Year. The film has been hailed as magnificent and one of the best of the year, but it doesn't seem to have the strength to challenge any of it's top competitors. I've shown hesitation in putting Black Swan on my list, because it struck me from the beginning as a psychological horror film, which the Academy doesn't often respond enthusiastically to. Though, the film has been getting phenomenal reviews for both the direction and the performances, so it may just stick in there for a chance.
My last two predictions aren't on quite as solid ground as the rest, as they seem like two big question marks on the horizon. The first is the Coen brother's latest western, True Grit, which doesn't release until late December. It's a long way to wait out for this one, as most of the big contenders have made their names known already. Still, the Coens have been nominated several times before, and they could very easily do it again here. My last vote of confidence is, as you may have guessed, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1. As we get closer to it's release, it seems like more and more of a possibility. The new trailer hints at some breathtaking action and scenery, as well as some of the most dynamic emotional scenes in the series (Ron leaving; _____ dying). If the film get's enough great reviews, we could easily see a nomination pick up this January.
There are definitely some other films that could pull a surprise nomination out of their pocket. I don't have much faith in The Fighter, but you really never know with this type of film. People are still talking about how Secretariat or Made in Dagenham could be "this year's The Blind Side" so we'll wait to see how those play out. The Town could turn out to be a bigger awards presence than originally though, depending on if any of the other films fall out. Finally, what ever happened to Blue Valentine. Could that film potentially come back out of nowhere and retake it's rightful place in the race?
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