Oscar 2010 Predictions: Picture

The votes have been tallied, and there's nothing I can say now that can change any heads about where they're going. So going into this evening, there's a great chance that the inevitable winner of this prize is going to be The King's Speech. Even after everything, I can still say I at least like the film, because it is inspirational and funny, but a feat of immense filmmaking, it is not. All the same, if by some miracle The King's Speech doesn't win, I don't think we'll be able to predict which feature will win. Sure, The Social Network is runner-up in the books, but things have changed so immensely that I can't tell what will happen.

What I truly hope happens, and this is if only the wildest of dreams come true, is that Black Swan takes home Best Picture, matching it up with its Indie Spirit Award last night. The film is an undeniable feat of advanced filmmaking that shakes you to your core, which is what a film should do. Although, the Academy may still be too apprehensive to let such an off-the-wall trinket as this walk away with the top prize. To be honest, I feel like the odds for an upset would be in The Fighter's favor, and I think that I'd be fine with that. Sure, I'm not a huge fan of Mark Wahlberg, but everyone else in the cast gives tops performances, it's nicely directed, and aggressively edited. My mindset is in the mood for a change.

Of course, The Social Network isn't totally out of the cards. They amassed a ridiculous amount of critics awards, and that heft should be able to push them over the threshold. There are probably a few Academy members who are out rooting for Fincher's film to win. It's a little strange how I'm not one of them. True Grit is another potent possibility, given the authentic nature of it, it seems like exactly the sort of carefully drawn out film that the Academy would honor. I'm sure it's not going to happen, but I think it'd definitely be nice. Toy Story 3 has been gaining some steam that hasn't really gone anywhere. If tonight were the night that the first animated feature took home Best Picture, I think there'd be more rapturous applause. And I quite honestly don't see a reason why it shouldn't be in the cards. It's one of the best features of 2010. That's undeniable. What's with the apprehension?

The rest of the field is filled out by films that don't really stand a chance. 127 Hours was perhaps as great as any film this year, but it's all packed into a smaller package, and I think the Academy would go for something bigger. I'm sure that the Academy isn't exactly a bunch of Inception fans, seeing as they didn't see fit to nominate Nolan for Best Director. I don't see much success for the film beyond the technical categories, sad as it is to say. The Kids Are All Right would be a sweet winner, but does anybody really believe this could happen? Same answer for Winter's Bone, as unfortunate as that is. It's a shame how sometimes the best aren't recognized as such through strange technicalities.

1. Black Swan
2. The Kids Are All Right
3. Winter's Bone
4. The Social Network
5. Toy Story 3
6. True Grit
7. The Fighter
8. Inception
9. 127 Hours
10. The King's Speech

Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win (My Pick): Black Swan
Potential Upset: The Social Network
Should Have Been Nominated: The Illusionist

Awards 2010: Independent Spirit Award Winners

And with that, the precursor season is now officially over, and I think I'll be more happy with the results here than with the results of tonight's Oscar showcase. Black Swan was the big winner of the night, taking home four awards and making it easier to get through the film not winner Best Picture tonight. James Franco was the most deserving actor of the group nominated, so he quite obviously took the award. Winter's Bone took home a few awards too, mostly in the supporting acting categories. The Kids Are All Right took home Best Screenplay, and Exit Through the Gift Shop won Best Documentary. Now lets go this exact way tonight, we'll finally be done!

Best Feature: Black Swan
Best Director: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Best Actor: James Franco (127 Hours)
Best Actress: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Supporting Actor: John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Best Supporting Actress: Dale Dickey (Winter's Bone)
Best Screenplay: The Kids Are All Right
Best First Screenplay: Tiny Furniture
Best Documentary: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Best Foreign Film: The King's Speech
Best First Feature: Get Low
Best Cinematography: Black Swan

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Lead Actor

By now it's an undisputed fact that Colin Firth's performance in The King's Speech is the best of 2010, and there's no denying that fact. It almost makes it difficult to accept that in a race this clean, but Firth really deserves it. I think he probably deserved it more for his role in A Single Man last year, but better for him to receive recognition now than to never receive it at all. And what of the rest of the field? They could be mere flies on a windshield up against Firth, but they're actually pretty close and fantastic performances in my opinion. The only one I can't comment on is Javier Bardem, because, like many Americans out there, I still haven't seen Biutiful. I know. I'm a massive failure.

Probably the actor who I truly wish was nominated this year was Aaron Eckhart for Rabbit Hole, and I ride on the same current as most people. Nicole Kidman is great in that film, but I found that the rollercoaster heart of the piece was Eckhart's rigorous emotionality. Instead, Jeff Bridges was nominated for True Grit, and I'm only slightly not okay with that. I think his performance in the film was great, and I almost got to wishing he would win this year and Firth had won last year. What stopped me was that this really isn't the main attraction. This is a supporting performance meant to serve Hailee Steinfeld's leading work as Mattie Ross. I also kind of wish Matt Damon was nominated for his work as Labeouf, but that is undisputably supporting in any case, and the supporting branch is packed as it is.

A month back, I would've said that Jesse Eisenberg was going to steal the gold from Colin Firth, and my reason for that was that he was gaining some traction in the critics awards, and if there's any performance that impressed as much as Firth's, it was Eisenberg's in The Social Network. Nobody would have thought that the Michael Cera look alike would have so much to offer, but he really hit it out of the park in a way that nobody expected, even after they'd seen the film. If Firth didn't have this locked up, I'd say Eisenberg would be the one to steal it. The actor I kind of pegged as the underdog was actually James Franco. Before I saw 127 Hours, I felt like it was a bit overblown. I couldn't have been more wrong, because Franco does deliver some brave work as Aron Ralston, and manages to translate his journey emotionally. That's the best an actor can aspire to.

1. Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
2. Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
3. James Franco (127 Hours)
4. Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
5. Javier Bardem (Biutiful)

Will & Should Win: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Potential Upset: Are you serious? No way!

Should Have Been Nominated: Aaron Eckhart (Rabbit Hole)

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Adapted Screenplay

This is the most set in stone race of this year's Oscar ceremony, because by now there isn't anything that could possibly stand in the way of Aaron Sorkin winning for The Social Network, as he deserves. The dialogue moves at such a clip that you almost look over how articulate, precise, and witty it is, not to mention the emotional journey it carries the characters on so wonderfully. If Sorkin can bring this level of success to everything he does from here on out, we're looking at a full and prosperous late career. However, for my part, I skew towards something a bit more off the beaten path. There was just so much that I loved about the screenplay for Winter's Bone, and though the performances were top notch, they'd have crumbled if not allied by such a strong script. I may be the only one who believes that, but that's my position.

The rest might as well be manure, but they're worth mentioning anyway. Toy Story 3, despite a few predictable jokes here and there, managed to maintain the quality of the previous two, as well as push the emotional potential of the story to new heights. True Grit succeeded in being the funniest film of the year with some of Joel & Ethan Coen's wittiest monologues and conversations to date. 127 Hours, in my opinion, isn't all that deserving of this spot, but it still did its part to bring us into Aron Ralston's crisis.

1. Winter's Bone
2. The Social Network
3. Toy Story 3
4. True Grit
5. 127 Hours

Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: Winter's Bone
Potential Upset: NONE
Should Have Been Nominated: Rabbit Hole

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Original Song

Perhaps the most obvious category to judge, and sometimes the easiest to get wrong, is Best Original Song. The rules have changed so extensively since the beginning of the category that it rarely lets in what is truly deserving. Take Tangled for example. There were several songs in the film that recurred in my mind days after seeing the film, such as "I've Got A Dream" and "Mother Knows Best". I did not spare a thought to the romantic ballad "I See The Light", because it comes at a point in the film where it just seems forced. In a better film, it would've been pretty high up there. As it is, it's settling for what's eligible.

Burlesque was thankfully shut out of competition, despite the empty fifth slot. Country Strong is surging with several country tunes, much like Crazy Heart. However, it lacks the same heart that was found in the Jeff Bridges film, and the music shows that well. 127 Hours' main theme has the right soul, and I love the simple feel of it, but the lyrics are repetitive and lacking a bit more meat. "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3 is the only song that really has even a remote chance at the gold. It's the backbone for the most refreshing epilogue you could've asked for in a film, and it's got that same Newman charm. '

1. "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3
2. "If I Rise" from 127 Hours
3. "Coming Home" from Country Strong
4. "I See The Light" from Tangled

Will/Should Win: "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3
Potential Upset: "I See The Light" from Tangled
Should Have Been Nominated: "Shine" from Waiting for Superman

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Original Score

Definitely one of the most competitive competitions this year is for Original Score, and even though this should be a two horse race, somehow it's been made into something more by The King's Speech. I'm not going to lie due to my affinity towards Alexandre Desplat, because The King's Speech is the least deserving score on this slate. I take into account 127 Hours, whose sole melody I remember "Lovely Day" by Bill Withers. Desplat's work on the film boiled down to the simple suites that he's been doing for year, and it was nowhere near as expansive and emotional as his work on Deathly Hallows: Part 1, nor anywhere close to the originality he brought to The Ghost Writer. I absolutely adore Desplat's work, which is the main reason I acknowledged him as the greatest contributor of 2010. He deserves to receive recognition, but not this year, and not for this score. He's got better work on the horizon, most notably Deathly Hallows: Part 2 and The Tree of Life.

How to Train Your Dragon was John Powell's greatest achievement in years, weaving so many memorable themes that equal the works of John Williams in his heyday. That being said, he's not going to take the gold with this particular work. The two scores in this race with the greatest chance at victory utilized the electronic in a fascinating way. My personal pick is quite obviously Inception, which is Hans Zimmer's most original score in years. Nobody else could have done it like him. The other is Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross' work on The Social Network. Whoever has griped at the score not expanding the feel of the film should shut it. They're only pissed that TRON Legacy didn't get in, and while I appreciate Daft Punk's work, I didn't realize until just recently how similar their score is to the score for The Dark Knight. Getting back to Reznor and Ross, their score defined our generation in a way that the film came just short of, not that they were aiming at capturing that. The Golden Globe win in favor of The Social Network raised the stakes of this particular race, and it'll be interesting to see what goes down later this month.

1. Inception
2. The Social Network
3. How to Train Your Dragon
4. 127 Hours
5. The King's Speech

Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: Inception
Potential Upset: The King's Speech
Should Have Been Nominated: The Ghost Writer

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Film Editing

One of the slightly butchered categories at this year's Academy Awards has to be Best Film Editing, if only because it seems that they don't know what they're awarding anymore. Three years ago, The Bourne Ultimatum won this category, and it wasn't nominated for anything above the technical level. It won because it displayed excellence in the craft for which it was nominated. I have my doubts in the Academy's ability to properly judge the race this year, strictly because of what wasn't nominated. I know that many are obsessed with Christopher Nolan being shut out of Best Director, but I'm far more shocked by Inception's omission from Best Film Editing.

Anybody who saw Inception would agree that Lee Smith's editing is second to perhaps only one. It takes a lot of work to blend the several layers of the dream world together in a way that doesn't break the trance the film has on the audience, but Smith did it. Now that he's inexplicably out of the race, there should be only one reasonable alternative, and that's Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter for The Social Network. The film is briskly paced, and the editing moves things forward in a wondrously organic way. It never feels slow, and it never feels unnecessary. It's a work of pure precision.

That should be the end of it, but somehow it just isn't. The film that was pretty much destined to be nominated, though I don't think it deserved to be, was The King's Speech. The other films nominated really displayed a unique craft, with 127 Hours' hyper-kinetic split-screens, Black Swan's dark and elegant subtlety, and The Fighter's raw brutality. They all earned their place in this field, but The King's Speech didn't display much craft in the editor's approach. It's plain and straightforward, much like everything else in the film. The weight of how many nominations it pulled off brings into question whether or not that will be enough to win. I certainly hope not, but there have been far too many unhealthy surprises this season. Why not another?

1. The Social Network
2. The Fighter
3. Black Swan
4. 127 Hours
5. The King's Speech

Should/Will Win: The Social Network
Possible Upset: The King's Speech
Should Have Been Nominated: Inception

Oscar 2010: 83rd Annual Academy Award Nominations

Here we are, right up in the morning for the hectic awesomeness of the Academy Award nominations, and they didn't skimp on more than a few surprises. I'll comment on those later on this morning, but for now, here are the nominations for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards!

BEST PICTURE
"Black Swan"
"The Fighter"
"Inception"
"The Kids Are All Right"
"The King's Speech"
"127 Hours"
"The Social Network"
"Toy Story 3"
"True Grit"
"Winter's Bone"

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky ("Black Swan")
David O. Russell ("The Fighter")
Tom Hooper ("The King's Speech")
David Fincher ("The Social Network")
Joel & Ethan Coen ("True Grit")

BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem ("Biutiful")
Jeff Bridges ("True Grit")
Jesse Eisenberg ("The Social Network)
Colin Firth ("The King's Speech")
James Franco ("127 Hours")

Oscar 2010: Final Oscar Predictions (Part 3: Films, Writers, and Directors)

The nominations for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards are announced early tomorrow morning, and seeing as I don't have to be up early tomorrow morning, expect me to report on those around noon. There's bound to be more than a few surprises, omissions, and upsets, but I can't say I'm really planning for those. I'm predicting what I think has the greatest chance at being nominated, so it's probably easiest to start at the top, because the nominations are pretty much locked in for Best Picture. Black Swan, Inception, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, and True Grit are all sturdy bets in terms of nominations. It's that tenth spot you have to worry about, and anything other than The Town or Winter's Bone would be a surprise. I'm betting on the latter, leaving Ben Affleck out in the cold.

The easiest category to predict is animated feature, seeing as there will only be three nominees. Toy Story 3 will make it in without a doubt, and How to Train Your Dragon still has some heat going towards a nomination. That leaves the final slot up to The Illusionist and Tangled, and I'd expect Sylvain Chomet's silent traditionally animated film to make the cut. Tangled seems just a bit too modern and new age for the Academy, and I expect them to go for something a bit more authentic. I'd really like for Megamind to be nominated, but the horrible choice of songs in the film kind of alienates those chances. As for Foreign Language Film, do you honestly expect me to make an informed decision on this one? I haven't seen any of these films, so that's truly impossible. Therefore, I'm just going to make a wild guess and say that Incendies, In A Better World, Dogtooth, Biutiful and Life, Above All will be nominated. It's going to be really funny if those all end up being nominated.

The documentary race is especially competitive this year, and yet I still haven't seen most of the films that have been shortlisted. It's pretty straightforward that Waiting for "Superman" and Inside Job will make it in, although I realize that any prediction I make in this case will be slightly off. I'm going to take a guess that the Academy reacted to Exit Through the Gift Shop the same way I did. I hardly believe it to be close to the best film of the year, despite how true it may be, so I'm going to say that Gasland, Restrepo, and The Tillman Story fill out my list. I'm keeping Waste Land in the back of my mind as an alternate, but I'm not counting on it.

The race for Best Director is a little more clear cut, because it was obvious this year which films had a powerful vision. Technically speaking, Tom Hooper shouldn't even be nominated for this, because he barely had any presence in The King's Speech. The ones that should be locks are David Fincher, Darren Aronofsky, Danny Boyle, and Christopher Nolan. David O' Russell could be an alternate, but everything in The Fighter lacks that uniqueness that is required to make it in this category. I'm pulling for Aronofsky to come out on top with the win for Black Swan, but there's quite some unlikelihood of that actually happening. The last two races are for the screenplay categories, and though that seems like a less climactic end than Best Picture, this year's nominations for that category aren't all that climactic.

In the Original Screenplay race, the two films fighting for the win are Inception and The King's Speech, so they are both reasonable locks. Black Swan may have less to go with in terms of dialogue, but the ideas presented in the screenplay are spectacular enough to merit a nod. The Kids Are All Right should make it in for the authentic and fun dialogue, as well as the sprightly and unconventional narrative. I'd like to say that Another Year should fill out this category, but that film has been disappearing at an alarming rate. The next film after that would be The Fighter, so I'm sticking to my guns in hope that Mike Leigh's British drama makes the cut. As for Adapted Screenplay, it's pretty impossible for any other film to beat out Aaron Sorkin's flawless screenplay for The Social Network, but those slots nonetheless need to be filled. Toy Story 3, True Grit, and Winter's Bone are all practically locks for the category, which leaves that much maligned fifth slot. Even though most expect 127 Hours to come through with that nomination, I expect Rabbit Hole to surprisingly end up making the cut, or at least I'm hoping it does. We'll just have to wait until tomorrow to see if I'm right.

Oscar 2010: Final Nomination Predictions (Part 1: Technical Categories)

We're less than a week away from the announcement of the nominations for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards, so it's a good idea to go over our predictions for what will and won't be nominated. If you want to skip this explanation, you can just skip over to the Oscar Prediction page as we update it over the weekend, although I obviously recommend that you read our drawn out explanation. Today we'll be covering the technical categories. Tomorrow we'll be going through the acting nominations. Monday, we'll go over the top race of Best Picture, Director, Animated Feature, Documentary, Foreign Language Film, and the Screenplay races. So lets get started, shall we?

It's been a pretty slow week, and that's probably a good thing since I had a lot of settling in to do. It gave me some time to take a closer look at the technical categories, and as set in stone as they may seem, I feel like we're going to get some surprises. The obvious frontrunner in the technicals is Inception, which has some pretty solid locks in Score, Cinematography, Art Direction, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. There's no qualms or quibbles about the film making its due. It was snubbed out of the Makeup category, which it had a minor chance at because of old Saito. I hoped for Costume Design to be surprise nomination for this one, but it's probably not going to happen.

Alice in Wonderland is a film nobody wants to honor, yet it somehow deserves those honors. It had a fantastic team on Makeup, Art Direction, and Costume Design, so it'll take some kind of miracle for it not to take home anything. The Wolfman will be securing a nomination in Makeup, but nothing else. Rounding out the makeup category is a rather difficult choice between The Way Back and Barney's Version, though I'm rooting for the latter. God forbid Jonah Hex walk away with an undeserved nomination. The only categories I can't really do any advising on are Sound Editing and Mixing. TRON Legacy is probably going to get some nods, but I've not a clue beyond that.

Only slightly more insightful am I at Costume Design, which I keep placing I Am Love in because I can't see why it should be nominated. The King's Speech is a lock, not to mention the frontrunner against Alice in Wonderland for the win. Burlesque could make it in for obvious reasons, but I don't really see why it should. Heading into the categories I'm more well associated with, Original Score is a bit of an obsession of mine. The ultimate battle will be between Inception and The Social Network, but as far as filling out the other nominees, it's a bit harder. John Powell will probably get a nod for How to Train Your Dragon, and as for the rest, I'm hoping that Alexandre Desplat doubles for two of his films. The King's Speech will obviously make it in, but I hold onto my belief that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 will make the cut.

Speaking of Deathly Hallows: Part 1, I still think that this will be a great year for the fantasy franchise. It'll definitely snag a Visual Effects nomination, but it's more of a struggle to get nods in Cinematography, Art Direction, and Original Score. It probably won't happen, but I hold out hope that it will. Black Swan is another one to watch for, properly becoming a presence in Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Cinematography. Perhaps the most extreme prediction I have is that Scott Pilgrim vs. The World will make the Visual Effects race over Alice in Wonderland. Probably won't happen, but I hope it will.

Rounding out the technical categories is Film Editing, which is the most straight forward in terms of predictions. The Social Network, Inception, Black Swan, and 127 Hours are all practical locks, but my guess to fill out that final slot is The Fighter. Of all the aspects of that film, the aggressive way it was edited was the thing I loved the most. That just about covers the technical achievements, albeit in a jumble and non-routine way. For the simple rundown of my guesses, check out our Oscar Predictions page as it is updated over the weekend. In the meantime, please comment on which films you think will or should be nominated come Tuesday morning!

Theatrical Trailer: HappyThankYouMorePlease

After watching this trailer, the first thing most will get from it is that it's starring and directed by the guy from How I Met Your Mother. It's certainly progress, because I've never seen him in anything else, and he needs to break away from that. I'm not sure the role is much different, but he's doing other things, and this is pretty damn interesting. It includes Kate Mara, whose only other film was a short stint in 127 Hours, and Malin Ackerman, who I only know from that cheesy and foul superhero film, Watchmen. Richard Jenkins is supposed to pop up sometime during the film, so that automatically makes it worth watching. The trailer is kind of nice, even if it's not perfect, and I think HappyThankYouMorePlease will actually be pretty damn sweet. Check it out, and comment on your thoughts.

Awards 2010: BAFTA Nominations

\Amongst the last major nominations before the Academy Award nominees are announced, the BAFTA didn't really pull any surprises with their announcements, and if they did, they were mild. Javier Bardem made it into the Best Actor race, while Hailee Steinfeld was actually nominated for Best Actress, instead of being lumped in the supporting race. So we've proved that Steinfeld does have enough weight to be legitimately nominated amongst Portman and Bening. Pete Postlethwaite was given a farewell nomination for his work on The Town. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 had minimum presence in the technical categories compared to other films in the franchise. Black Swan got an insane amount of nominations, and it's slowly becoming more and more possible for it to take the big prize if all the dominoes align for it.

Best Film
“Black Swan”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
“True Grit”

Best British Film
“Another Year”
“Four Lions”
“The King’s Speech”
“Made In Dagenham”
“127 Hours”

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky (“Black Swan”)
Christopher Nolan (“Inception”)
Tom Hooper (“The King’s Speech”)
Danny Boyle (“127 Hours”)
David Fincher (“The Social Network”)

Film Review: 127 Hours

Of all the films I expected to see before the end of last year, 127 Hours was probably the most disappointing missed opportunity. It's kind of difficult to write something that hasn't already been said about the film at this point. Plenty believe that the entire film is about the crucial climactic scene that everybody has to talk about at one point or another. It's plenty more than that, although this is probably the most simple film in the Best Picture race this year. That doesn't necessarily count against it, and it actually works as the feature-length equivalent of a short story. The primary obstacle that the film must face is how to keep an audience interested and invested in a film that spends a great deal of it's run time in one single area.

Quite a few films last year have dealt with isolation, and I'm not just talking 127 Hours and Buried. The Social Network and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 also dealt with those issues, albeit in a much more conventional way. 127 Hours goes for the unconventional road, much like the main character. It's the story of Aron Ralston, a mechanic with great confidence in his own ability to survive on his own. He displays an isolationist attitude, trying at every chance to escape the derivative bustle of the cities, and that leads him on a solo rock climbing trek. Oh, and then he gets his arm pinned against a wall by a large and immovable boulder.

I've been generally surprised by how many films this year have been so relatable to me, so it was nice that I could relate Aron Ralston to somebody other than myself. After the fifteen minute opening, I couldn't help but see a little bit of my older brother in him. That probably means nothing to those who live far outside the state of New Hampshire, but it's nonetheless true. He's overly confident that he can succeed in situations where others would crack, but there's always a point where it's unbearable. James Franco does a brilliant job capturing that slow and gradual descent from airhead to delirium. It never feels forced, as if the hallucinations are just coming in full force like a switch has been turned on. All the slight treats of warmth, water, and even familiar company are taken away gradually, and it all feels rather believable.

The cinematography has the gloss and colorful flourishes stripped away from it, leaving a cold tone similar to pale image of a video camera. There's never a moment when it's just sitting around in some mundane position. There's always some flash of movement. A.R. Rahman follows up his award winning soundtrack to Slumdog Millionaire with a kinetic and quick minded score indicative of an action feature, which it feels a lot like in certain sequences, not the least of which is the climactic scene everyone talks about. In a strong year for directors, it shouldn't be an insult to say that Danny Boyle comes in fourth place behind David Fincher, Christopher Nolan, and Darren Aronofsky. To come off such an underdog success and deliver a film like this is an impressive feat. There have been so many films that have canned the idea of a happy ending, because that's not the way life is. There's misery and pain all around, but 127 Hours shows how precious life is, and how pathetic things are when it's taken away. It doesn't touch the poignancy of 2010's more tragic films, but it's the most affective telling of that story, and it'd be worse if it wasn't told at all.

B+

Oscar 2010: As It Should Be

The Oscar season has really calmed down in terms of tension and excitement, and I at the moment it would be pretty easy to take a solid guess at who would win. As for the nominees, I think we've gotten pretty well settled on who will make the cut. The Social Network, The King's Speech, True Grit, Inception, and Toy Story 3 are all locks based on critical acceptance and their success with the precursors. As a matter of fact, in a field of five nominations, those would be the films most would predict. Inception and Toy Story 3 are closest to the edge of that range, and there would be some serious doubt on whether or not they'd make it in if we were still operating on a five nomination basis.

The Fighter is also a pretty safe bet on being nominated, but it would have a much tougher time being one of five nominees. If I have an enemy in this race, that would probably be it, as I find it too familiar, even if the performances are spectacular. Black Swan's chances are slightly better, and I would be surprised if the nominations were announced and Darren Aronofsky's film was not in the pot. 127 Hours and The Kids Are All Right are pretty unanimous nominations, though neither of them have gotten much awards buzz recently so that's slightly up in the air.

Another Year isn't really much of a contender anymore, so the two films in a dog fight for the final slot are The Town and Winter's Bone. My guess and favoritism lies with latter, but they both have shown strong presence in the precursors. However, by now we're far past the argument of who will be nominated, and we're in the heat of who should ultimately win. A lot of people are hoping for a backlash against The Social Network, and after seeing it a few more times, I think that would be horrible. The film is fully deserving of the honor, and I certainly wouldn't be in opposition. I'm not sure if I'd say that it's my horse in this race, but I definitely have a massive fondness for it. The King's Speech seemed like it was the main competitor in the Best Picture race, but it has only secured a few precursors and it'll take something huge to change the tides.

True Grit doesn't have much chance outside the Supporting Actress and Cinematography races, and it deserves to do well in those races. I wouldn't count it as a horrible thing if it went home with only two. It would be a tragedy if it went home with nothing at all, like Up in the Air did last year. It's not fitting of such an authentic and textured western to earn nothing in return. I can't say I'm one of the people who thinks that Toy Story 3 should be considered more of a frontrunner in the top race, because I just don't think we've reached that point of acceptance for it to have a chance. As for Inception, I don't think Christopher Nolan will get his major win with this piece. He'll probably do much better in 2012 with The Dark Knight Rises.

If I have a horse in this race, it would be the unlikely contender of Black Swan. I've warmed up to the film so immensely since I first saw it. I guess I cherished the opportunity to pay complete attention to the film more than I did when my brother was chattering off for the entire duration. It would be something beautiful if this film ended up winning the main race, and I think that's the film I will be most promoting in the coming weeks. The odds are placed against it, but it was an uphill battle from the moment it premiered at Venice Film Festival. It's practically secured a nomination at this point, and I don't believe it's about to deflate, so there's nowhere else to go but up. So, while I adjust my Oscar predictions page to include winner predictions, please let me know what you think. Who is your horse in this race, and who is your chosen enemy?

Awards 2010: USC Libraries Scripter Nominations

Once again, off the wall ideas of what might be nominated for the screenplay categories. Enjoy it for what it is, which is a slight leg up for The Ghost Writer.

"The Ghost Writer"
"127 Hours"
"The Social Network"
"True Grit"
"Winter's Bone"

Awards 2010: Art Director's Guild (ADG) Nominations

Amongst my favorite factors of film production, as well as the most vital, is art direction, so the technical categories are often as fascinating as the main races for me. The ADG doesn't give so much of an idea of what to expect from the Oscar nominations. It's more of a reminder of all the films in the race, and what to choose. My current predictions remain mostly in the Fantasy Film category with films like Inception and Alice in Wonderland, but I'll probably change that up a bit before the nominations are announced. Until then, take a look at these nominations.

Period Film
"Get Low"
"The King's Speech"
"Robin Hood"
"Shutter Island"
"True Grit"

Fantasy Film
"Alice in Wonderland"
"The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1"
"Inception"
"TRON Legacy"

Contemporary Film
"Black Swan"
"The Fighter"
"127 Hours"
"The Social Network"
"The Town"

Catching Up With 2010

As was obvious when I published my list of the best films of 2010, I still need to see quite a few films from last year. There are a few that I'm willing to leave behind like Cyrus, but I still missed out this year. Had I seen all the films I wanted to, Easy A, Winter's Bone, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 would've easily slid off my list. However, I am making the resolve to catch up with these films before they're lost to the wind. I've had some trouble seeking out Exit Through the Gift Shop, and I've missed out on A Prophet and The Secret in Their Eyes out of benign neglect. I'm hoping that doesn't happen again this year. I'll have no more missed opportunities this year, so here's the list of films I still need to catch up on.

-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-Fair Game
-A Prophet
-The Secret in Their Eyes
-Blue Valentine
-Another Year
-I Love You Phillip Morris
-Rabbit Hole
-Exit Through the Gift Shop
-127 Hours

Awards 2010: Writer's Guild of America Nominations

Well, the annual list of films snubbed from the WGA didn't seem to stop a consistent stream of quality coming in, although there are two rather interesting horses in this race. Please Give and I Love You Phillip Morris were nominated for their Original and Adapted Screenplays respectively. The winners ought to be rather obvious, with Inception and The Social Network coming out on top in their respective categories. It's not a great glimpse at what to expect from the Oscar nominations, but it's something different to say the least.

Awards 2010: Producer's Guild of America Nominations

We're finally getting somewhat past the repetitive critics awards, and into the guild award part of the season. The PGA is one of the more important awards, because it gives us a reliable idea of what to expect when the Oscar nominations for Best Picture are released. On the other hand, we already had a clear idea of what was probably going to make the list. Another Year's chances have dwindled by far. The Town is seeming like a more likely candidate, but I'm still pulling for Winter's Bone to make the cut. Ultimately, there isn't much diversion from what we already suspected. The major surprise for me is that Exit Through the Gift Shop didn't make the cut for the documentary category.