Oscar 2010 Predictions: Lead Actress

I don't really think in a way that can be deemed as rational, as my brother keeps telling me of my fascination with Cougar Town. Of the nominees for Best Actress, the one I think is least deserving of recognition is Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole, and this is for a few reasons. The least important reason is that she's been pretty much absent from awards contention for the past few years, and her return feels a little awkward. There's a coldness to her performance, and it comes off as a bit forced if you ask me. It's still great, but less so than the other nominees. That's the critical perspective, and somehow that perspective can't take apart Emma Stone's performance in Easy A. Somehow her mannerisms in the film came off to me so radically that they brought me to tears with her. Don't call me pathetic!

Unfortunately, Emma Stone isn't nominated this year, which leaves a field of mistresses to sleep with deal with. Michelle Williams is an actress I have been observing rather closely, because I feel she's got the sort of talent that could explode across the screen in spectacular fashion. Somehow, and this has been nagging on me, she doesn't quite do that in Blue Valentine. She comes extremely close, and the raw intensity of her performance does warrant a nomination, but I can't really go any further for her yet. Her and Kidman are in something of the same boat, albeit in completely different ways.

The rest of the actresses here deserve to be here 100%, and it'd be so difficult to pick one out of the bunch if it hadn't been made so obvious already. Natalie Portman's iconic performance in Black Swan topped of the tragic tale of fragility and duality in a way that never once feels forced or exaggerated. She manages the transition from innocent child to sensual being of destruction so flawlessly, and that's not even to speak of the subtle nuances to the performance aspect of it. The physical brutality of the ballet world pushes the actress to emphasize every move in a way she wasn't capable of before. Any performance she gives from here on out will be better because of what she learned here. That's definitely worthy of reward.

The only actress with any hope or chance of beating Portman, though I pray that doesn't happen, is Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right. She's definitely at the point in which she's just waiting for the day she gets her award. I would've said this was her year before I saw Black Swan, and it's still worthy of note how she manages to make the character so believable in a way Julianne Moore didn't quite achieve. Perhaps that was just the way the characters were formatted, but you're definitely put on Bening's side by the end of the film, and there has to be a reason for that. Topping everything off, Jennifer Lawrence is the breakout star of the year, no matter what case you make for Hailee Steinfeld or Andrew Garfield. Lawrence shows a maturity beyond her years in this role, and if there's a film with such a solid ensemble this year, I'd say it was Winter's Bone.

1. Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
2. Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
3. Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
4. Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
5. Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)

Will & Should Win: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Potential Upset: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Should Have Been Nominated: Emma Stone (Easy A)

Catching Up With 2010

As was obvious when I published my list of the best films of 2010, I still need to see quite a few films from last year. There are a few that I'm willing to leave behind like Cyrus, but I still missed out this year. Had I seen all the films I wanted to, Easy A, Winter's Bone, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 would've easily slid off my list. However, I am making the resolve to catch up with these films before they're lost to the wind. I've had some trouble seeking out Exit Through the Gift Shop, and I've missed out on A Prophet and The Secret in Their Eyes out of benign neglect. I'm hoping that doesn't happen again this year. I'll have no more missed opportunities this year, so here's the list of films I still need to catch up on.

-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-Fair Game
-A Prophet
-The Secret in Their Eyes
-Blue Valentine
-Another Year
-I Love You Phillip Morris
-Rabbit Hole
-Exit Through the Gift Shop
-127 Hours

Awards 2010: WGA Rejects List

Once again, the Writer's Guild of America has composed their list of films that qualify for their screenplay categories. More often than not, the list is better defined by what it doesn't have than what it does. So what poor souls didn't make the cut this year? Well, the most notable omissions are Toy Story 3, Winter's Bone, The King's Speech, Blue Valentine, and Another Year. In other words, most of the films that'll dominate the Academy Award nominations for the two categories. Based on this, I'd say it's a pretty good guess to say that Inception and The Social Network will win Original and Adapted Screenplay respectively. The WGA has a very strict set of guidelines that a film has to be produced under in order to qualify. Other films that didn't make the cut are How to Train Your Dragon, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, Never Let Me Go, Biutiful, The Way Back, Tangled, and Made in Dagenham. Although, if it is any consolation, Killers didn't make the cut either. For a look at the full list of eligible films, follow this link.

Films To See In 2011: January

The year is coming to a close, which means that we're now headed into the cold season. It's always a bit depressing to go from the rich and enjoyable films of Oscar season to the barren and irritating first few months of the year. There's a fair bit of doubt amidst us concerning exactly how 2011 will do in comparison to 2010. I haven't a doubt that the film industry will do well financially, with an extremely fertile slate of Summer films on the way. It's impossible to tell what will be the critically successful films of the year, especially this far before the festival circuit. That will take a fair bit of patience.

As for the start of the year, it's obviously going to be a long haul. It always is. January is the hardest in terms of new releases, which is why I rely mostly on the wide expansions of the late 2010 flicks that I didn't see before the year was over like Another Year and Blue Valentine. There is the obvious crap that lies in the marketplace, and for once I am going to indulge in that crap. I'll be skipping the obvious failures like Season of the Witch and From Prada to Nada. However, at the time being, it looks like I'll be settling in to see No Strings Attached when it is released. Keep hitting up the poll in the sidebar before it's too late. There are only two new releases that I can actively recommend for you to see. Take a look after the jump!

Lightning In A Bottle: Best Trailers of 2010

5. Super 8

I know it's a trailer for a film coming out in 2011, but I'm counting any trailer released this year under this list. The most entertaining part of Iron Man 2, sad as it is to say, was the trailers before the film. I payed to see the film a second time, just so I could see those trailers again. J.J. Abrams' secret new trailer for Super 8 arrived very much in the same way that the trailer for Cloverfield did. The only difference was that news of this trailer leaked onto the internet shortly before it debuted, so it was only half a surprise. Still, Abrams does know how to put together an intriguing teaser, packed with special effects, silent intrigue, and the question of what exactly it is all supposed to mean. We'll have to wait until next year to see if it'll actually be worth it, but we've got our fingers crossed.

4. The Social Network

The reveal of the final trailer for David Fincher's much anticipated The Social Network was divided, as the previous two weeks gave us two interesting and unique teasers. Then we got the final work of art, and it gave us an idea of what exactly we were in for. "The Facebook Movie" was no longer a simple joke. It was a film that could be taken seriously by audiences and critics. Right from the opening, the trailer pushed style and art before thrusting us forward into dark yellow cinematography of Harvard. The screenplay was praise-worthy, even in such a fragmented format. The cover of Creep that played in the background gave an eerie undertone to it all, fit the theme of the film, and it soon became the song that best described this year in film.

3. Blue Valentine

I have a special preference for these trailers that don't go with the regular format, and instead decide to go with something a little simpler, but more striking. In many ways, this trailer works brilliantly for this specific film, because even though it doesn't quite go over the bar with grit, it's still quite raw. It's certainly enough to get me in the theater, because Michelle Williams and Ryan Gosling are two spectacular understated actors. They're so honest in the interpretation of all this. It only hints at the insanity that ensues when their relationship starts to crumble, but it's only a teaser trailer. It's meant to get you interested, and this one gets us into the seats.

2. Black Swan

There were two trailers this year that had absolutely everybody talking, because they challenged the audience to buy into their insanity, and succeeded. This was really close to nabbing the top spot, but Darren Aronofsky's Black Swan still has plenty going for it. The first footage that made its way to the public was gob-smacking, and gave the consistent feeling of WTF(?) throughout that final minute. We knew it was going to be absolutely terrifying, but there were points in which it just got disturbing. From that creepy crow-face to red-eyed Nina pulling a black feather out of her skin. At a point I was wondering whether it was a ballet-thriller or some dark work of fantasy. Back then, I didn't think this film would be nominated for Best Picture, but I knew it was going to be amazing.

1. Inception

It may seem like a bit of an overstatement, but there is no way this could be considered anything less than the best trailer of the year. A lot of what went into it was the mystery and anticipation surrounding Christopher Nolan's latest mindbender, and all of that is still there. Wally Pfister's cinematography is always brimming with artistry and detail, and combining that with the unique visuals that the dream world provides us is like catching lightning in a bottle. I watched this trailer at least twenty times in a row when it reached the internet. Perhaps the most important quality of it all was Zack Hemsey's Mind Heist, which played in the background of the trailer. It brought all the excitement and anticipation out to the audience on an emotional level. This trailer was a success on every level of sound, sight, and editing. From that moment on, the main event of the summer was Inception.

"Blue Valentine" NC-17 Rating Successfully Appealed

Are we sure that The Weinstein Company didn't just plan this whole debacle to raise press for thier upcoming romance? In any case, I'm sure you've heard that Blue Valentine was given an NC-17 rating a few months back for a sex scene that was deemed too extreme for an R-rating. Fortunately, Harvey Weinstein managed to go forward to get the rating appealed by the MPAA, and thus make it easier for people to see their film. That was a success, so it seems that Blue Valentine will be releasing under an R-rating this year. Now, all we need is a theatrical trailer to go along with this news, and we'll be all set. In other news, The King's Speech wasn't able to appeal its R-rating, but you win some; you lose some.

"Blue Valentine" Poster

Whenever I see any piece of publicity or marketing for this film, I find it difficult to believe that it's been minimalized in regards to the Oscar race. Things remain alive for Ryan Gosling in the Best Actor race, but it really will depend on the reception of the film when it comes out. It may reenter the race if it's successful, but it's very much in waiting right now. If it doesn't get the whole NC-17 rating worked out, it will have a tougher time getting recognized, but I still have faith in it. The new poster is very raw, passionate, and sensual, and that should work in favor of Blue Valentine if anything.

2010 Gotham Awards Nominees Announced

The awards season has begun, whether any of us is ready or not. It's a lot more taxing and time consuming for me than it is for you. The Gotham Awards has announced their nominations, and it almost easy to forget that this was a spectacular year for independent films. There are certainly a few films I haven't heard of, mostly in the Documentary category. For the most part though, I'm surprised to find myself engaged by these nominations. I'm happy that Let Me In was given representation, small though it is. However, The Kids Are All Right and Winter's Bone are the true spotlight for these nominations.

As for my predictions on who will come out on top, I'm putting The Kids Are All Right on top for both Best Feature and Best Ensemble Performance. Until the fall season, that was my favorite film of the year. If only because it's the only one I've heard of, I'm putting Inside Job on top for Best Documentary. Breakthrough Director is a complete wild card, for who can say who will win. Finally, though Greta Gerwig's turn in Greenberg was my favorite thing about the film, Breakthrough Actress is going to go to Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone. It may reignite Oscar potential for her once again. Take a look at the nominees, and make your own predictions in the comment section.

Best Feature
Black Swan
Blue Valentine
The Kids Are All Right
Let Me In
Winter’s Bone

Best Documentary
12th & Delaware
Inside Job
The Oath
Public Speaking
Sweetgrass

Best Ensemble Performance
The Kids Are All Right
Life During Wartime
Please Give
Tiny Furniture
Winter’s Bone

Breakthrough Director
John Wells, (The Company Men)
Kevin Asch, (Holy Rollers)
Glenn Ficarra and John Requa, (I Love You Phillip Morris)
Tanya Hamilton, (Night Catches Us)
Lena Dunham, (Tiny Furniture)

Breakthrough Actor
Prince Adu (Prince of Broadway)
Ronald Bronstein, (Daddy Longlegs)
Greta Gerwig, (Greenberg)
Jennifer Lawrence, (Winter’s Bone)
John Ortiz, (Jack Goes Boating)

Theatrical Trailer: Blue Valentine

Remember this little film? Remember nine months ago when it premiered at Sundance Film Festival, and within days there was talk that the film could be heading towards an Oscar nomination? Well, Blue Valentine is finally back in memory, just a few months before its release. I've had my own discomforts about this film, but it's always been there as a back door possibility. Once we get more reviews after the film's release, we may indeed get a resurgence. The new trailer is simple, sweet, and nicely poetic, even if the film doesn't turn out to be anything special. Although, I find it extremely distracting that this film was given an NC-17 rating by the MPAA, and I can't yet figure out why. It does make me wonder more than a little.