Oscar 2010 Predictions: Lead Actress

I don't really think in a way that can be deemed as rational, as my brother keeps telling me of my fascination with Cougar Town. Of the nominees for Best Actress, the one I think is least deserving of recognition is Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole, and this is for a few reasons. The least important reason is that she's been pretty much absent from awards contention for the past few years, and her return feels a little awkward. There's a coldness to her performance, and it comes off as a bit forced if you ask me. It's still great, but less so than the other nominees. That's the critical perspective, and somehow that perspective can't take apart Emma Stone's performance in Easy A. Somehow her mannerisms in the film came off to me so radically that they brought me to tears with her. Don't call me pathetic!

Unfortunately, Emma Stone isn't nominated this year, which leaves a field of mistresses to sleep with deal with. Michelle Williams is an actress I have been observing rather closely, because I feel she's got the sort of talent that could explode across the screen in spectacular fashion. Somehow, and this has been nagging on me, she doesn't quite do that in Blue Valentine. She comes extremely close, and the raw intensity of her performance does warrant a nomination, but I can't really go any further for her yet. Her and Kidman are in something of the same boat, albeit in completely different ways.

The rest of the actresses here deserve to be here 100%, and it'd be so difficult to pick one out of the bunch if it hadn't been made so obvious already. Natalie Portman's iconic performance in Black Swan topped of the tragic tale of fragility and duality in a way that never once feels forced or exaggerated. She manages the transition from innocent child to sensual being of destruction so flawlessly, and that's not even to speak of the subtle nuances to the performance aspect of it. The physical brutality of the ballet world pushes the actress to emphasize every move in a way she wasn't capable of before. Any performance she gives from here on out will be better because of what she learned here. That's definitely worthy of reward.

The only actress with any hope or chance of beating Portman, though I pray that doesn't happen, is Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right. She's definitely at the point in which she's just waiting for the day she gets her award. I would've said this was her year before I saw Black Swan, and it's still worthy of note how she manages to make the character so believable in a way Julianne Moore didn't quite achieve. Perhaps that was just the way the characters were formatted, but you're definitely put on Bening's side by the end of the film, and there has to be a reason for that. Topping everything off, Jennifer Lawrence is the breakout star of the year, no matter what case you make for Hailee Steinfeld or Andrew Garfield. Lawrence shows a maturity beyond her years in this role, and if there's a film with such a solid ensemble this year, I'd say it was Winter's Bone.

1. Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
2. Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
3. Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
4. Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
5. Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)

Will & Should Win: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Potential Upset: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Should Have Been Nominated: Emma Stone (Easy A)

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Lead Actor

By now it's an undisputed fact that Colin Firth's performance in The King's Speech is the best of 2010, and there's no denying that fact. It almost makes it difficult to accept that in a race this clean, but Firth really deserves it. I think he probably deserved it more for his role in A Single Man last year, but better for him to receive recognition now than to never receive it at all. And what of the rest of the field? They could be mere flies on a windshield up against Firth, but they're actually pretty close and fantastic performances in my opinion. The only one I can't comment on is Javier Bardem, because, like many Americans out there, I still haven't seen Biutiful. I know. I'm a massive failure.

Probably the actor who I truly wish was nominated this year was Aaron Eckhart for Rabbit Hole, and I ride on the same current as most people. Nicole Kidman is great in that film, but I found that the rollercoaster heart of the piece was Eckhart's rigorous emotionality. Instead, Jeff Bridges was nominated for True Grit, and I'm only slightly not okay with that. I think his performance in the film was great, and I almost got to wishing he would win this year and Firth had won last year. What stopped me was that this really isn't the main attraction. This is a supporting performance meant to serve Hailee Steinfeld's leading work as Mattie Ross. I also kind of wish Matt Damon was nominated for his work as Labeouf, but that is undisputably supporting in any case, and the supporting branch is packed as it is.

A month back, I would've said that Jesse Eisenberg was going to steal the gold from Colin Firth, and my reason for that was that he was gaining some traction in the critics awards, and if there's any performance that impressed as much as Firth's, it was Eisenberg's in The Social Network. Nobody would have thought that the Michael Cera look alike would have so much to offer, but he really hit it out of the park in a way that nobody expected, even after they'd seen the film. If Firth didn't have this locked up, I'd say Eisenberg would be the one to steal it. The actor I kind of pegged as the underdog was actually James Franco. Before I saw 127 Hours, I felt like it was a bit overblown. I couldn't have been more wrong, because Franco does deliver some brave work as Aron Ralston, and manages to translate his journey emotionally. That's the best an actor can aspire to.

1. Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
2. Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
3. James Franco (127 Hours)
4. Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
5. Javier Bardem (Biutiful)

Will & Should Win: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Potential Upset: Are you serious? No way!

Should Have Been Nominated: Aaron Eckhart (Rabbit Hole)

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Adapted Screenplay

This is the most set in stone race of this year's Oscar ceremony, because by now there isn't anything that could possibly stand in the way of Aaron Sorkin winning for The Social Network, as he deserves. The dialogue moves at such a clip that you almost look over how articulate, precise, and witty it is, not to mention the emotional journey it carries the characters on so wonderfully. If Sorkin can bring this level of success to everything he does from here on out, we're looking at a full and prosperous late career. However, for my part, I skew towards something a bit more off the beaten path. There was just so much that I loved about the screenplay for Winter's Bone, and though the performances were top notch, they'd have crumbled if not allied by such a strong script. I may be the only one who believes that, but that's my position.

The rest might as well be manure, but they're worth mentioning anyway. Toy Story 3, despite a few predictable jokes here and there, managed to maintain the quality of the previous two, as well as push the emotional potential of the story to new heights. True Grit succeeded in being the funniest film of the year with some of Joel & Ethan Coen's wittiest monologues and conversations to date. 127 Hours, in my opinion, isn't all that deserving of this spot, but it still did its part to bring us into Aron Ralston's crisis.

1. Winter's Bone
2. The Social Network
3. Toy Story 3
4. True Grit
5. 127 Hours

Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: Winter's Bone
Potential Upset: NONE
Should Have Been Nominated: Rabbit Hole

Film Review: Rabbit Hole

In the post-2010 scramble to see all the movies I have missed, most times I am only mildly affected by a film. Exit Through the Gift Shop, spectacular and brilliant as it may be, didn't seem to change my life as much as it has changed others. 127 Hours was inspirational and powerful, but it was hindered by the fact that I knew what was going to happen from the moment it started. Everyone has made such a big fuss about the crucial arm-cutting scene, and they're starting to think that that's all the film is about. It makes it impossible to go into it with the unsuspecting mindset that you don't know what will happen. The film that really blew me away, far more than I expected it to, was Rabbit Hole from director John Cameron Mitchell.

Sometimes it is the most simple and mundane of plots that truly grab you, not to belittle the extreme and heartbreaking trials the film presents. The focus is on Becca and Howie Corbett, a married couple who are still recovering over the traumatic and shocking loss of their child, Danny. As they struggle through their grief, Howie befriends somebody who's been at their focus group for a grand total of eight years, and Becca starts meeting with the teenage boy who was driving the car that accidentally killed young Danny. Becca gets some guidance from her mother Nat, who also went through a similar tragedy.

Catching Up With 2010

As was obvious when I published my list of the best films of 2010, I still need to see quite a few films from last year. There are a few that I'm willing to leave behind like Cyrus, but I still missed out this year. Had I seen all the films I wanted to, Easy A, Winter's Bone, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 would've easily slid off my list. However, I am making the resolve to catch up with these films before they're lost to the wind. I've had some trouble seeking out Exit Through the Gift Shop, and I've missed out on A Prophet and The Secret in Their Eyes out of benign neglect. I'm hoping that doesn't happen again this year. I'll have no more missed opportunities this year, so here's the list of films I still need to catch up on.

-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-Fair Game
-A Prophet
-The Secret in Their Eyes
-Blue Valentine
-Another Year
-I Love You Phillip Morris
-Rabbit Hole
-Exit Through the Gift Shop
-127 Hours

For Your Anticipation: Does It Ever Go Away?

One of the films that I don't expect to see before the end of the year, but I deeply want to see is Rabbit Hole, starring Nicole Kidman and Aaron Eckhart. I do believe that Kidman is a great actress, but she hasn't been given a truly fantastic role in a while. On the same level I absolutely love Aaron Eckhart, and I think he may be one of the most unsung heroes of The Dark Knight. What endears me to this film, besides the actors, is the subject matter. It's a really delicate topic that they're dealing with (The loss of a child), and it crushes me that I'll most likely not have a chance to see it this year. Take a look at a clip from the film below, and let me know what you think in the comment section!

"Rabbit Hole" Poster

Theatrical Trailer: Rabbit Hole

Rabbit Hole has been off my radar for some time now, and now that it's back, I'm not entirely sure about it, but I've been hearing good things. This doesn't look like the sort of film that would crack the top ten, but it definitely has a chance in the acting categories. Check it out.