The Weekend Report: Foolish "Hop"-timism

No elaborate or amateur pranks for you guys today, because I am only capable of the latter and too self-conscious to do something so depraved. What I can tell you for sure, and this is sadly not a joke, is that Hop will almost certainly make it out at the top of the box office. I'm sure it would be an easier sell if it had the added bonus of 3D, but it's already got a needy and optimistic target audience locked in. Children are clueless and predictable, and I loathe the idea that I may one day have to be hauled into this kind of film with them one day. The idiocy here exceeds the relatively modest standards of Alvin and the Chipmunks, so I'll be checking in for more intellectual fare.

Source Code is the second big-ticket feature this weekend, and for once I'm relatively confident that I'll have a great time with this film. It's got a more than talent cast that features not only Jake Gyllenhaal, a man who has had some less than inspiring features over the past year, but also Vera Farmiga and Jeffrey Wright. Everything about screams as an intelligent sci-fi action piece, more low-key and less grand-scale than Inception, but enticing nonetheless. This is the film I'd like to see come out on top this weekend, but I doubt that audiences will be smart enough to take the gamble on original material like this.

The rest is a festival of uncertainty and detectable crap, both on the limited and wide release scale. Insidious has received mixed reviews, mostly from people who roll their eyes at its typical horror plotline. The King's Speech*, a somewhat great and inspiring feature over the past few months, is getting an less than encouraged PG-13 release in order to ensnare "family audiences". I guess winning the Oscar and earning over $100 million doesn't get you out of censorship in this day and age. On the limited market, Super arrived to mixed reviews, which could mean that it's a love it or hate it affair, but one can't be sure. I can offer a mild suggestion towards In a Better World, this year's Oscar winner for Best Foreign Language Film, but I'm somewhat held back in this case.

*A good film, but if you haven't seen it yet, wait for the R-rated version to reach DVD. The PG-13 version is a poor decision.

The Legacy of "The King's Speech"

It's been about a month since The King's Speech was honored as the 83rd winner of the Academy Award for Best Picture, and all the anger and frustration should have faded away to some degree by now. There is obviously some lingering angst amongst those who are perhaps a little too invested in the highly subjective awards show. I learned pretty quickly that the measure of what film wins Best Picture is not a definite record of what was unanimously the best film of that year. If I were to have my own way, I'd have had Black Swan walk away with the top prize that night, but I would've settled for The Social Network. It didn't turn out that way, and that's honestly fine.

What's not fine is that the film that did win was so quick to change for the general public. A PG-13 version of The King's Speech is set to release next Friday in over 1000 theaters, and all I can help but wonder is why they would make this decision. The film has already made $132.9 million, and that was with the R-rated version that it won the Oscar with. Of course it's probably only going to omit pieces of those two scenes of King George swearing his ass off, but it still honestly feels like they're just pandering, and even more troubling, compromising their initial vision. I wasn't exactly the biggest fan of the film, but I thought it was very entertaining and inspiring, even if greatness evaded it.

Box Office Update: Calculated Retreat

This weekend wasn't really a victory, but certainly not a defeat. We're on a course towards revival at the box office, and it wasn't going to come right away. We're still going through the dullest of material to get to the real gold, if it even exists. I personally am pretty excited about the films coming out this Friday, which may not exactly be great, but are still probably good. As for this weekend, there was no bright side to be seen in terms of movies, and you could tell by the nonsensical defenses people gave for Battle: Los Angeles. I have no problem saying that I had a ridiculously fun time with the film, but it didn't really have anything to do with the film. The film was abysmal, but in a way that you could so enjoyably poke fun at.

So it comes as little surprise to me that a film I compare to the works of Michael Bay came on top of the weekend. It wasn't terribly high, and doesn't exceed what Rango turned in last week, but it was above the norm. It's just unusual that films aren't opening above $50 million so far this year. I would've pegged this weekend to do much better than it did, but it turns out the quality kind of mattered to audiences. Red Riding Hood came in third with an opening figure that doesn't even fill up a third of what any of the Twilight films have made opening weekend. Mars Needs Moms, a 3D animated kids flick, came in fifth with a truly sad figure below $10 million.

Rango fell to #2, and I suspect that the lack of 3D caused that dip to be a little lower. It held on more than you would've expected it to, but it was still a bit disappointing. The Adjustment Bureau fell 45.8% to fourth place, and I think audiences have gotten about as much mileage as they're going to get from it. The King's Speech spends what is likely to be its last weekend in the top ten, making it to nearly $130 million. In the limited circuit, Jane Eyre recieved $182,317 at four theaters, which makes for the highest per theater average of this weekend. I wish I was in a position to see it. This weekend was down only 13% from last year, when Alice in Wonderland held on to to #1 for its second weekend.

1. Battle: Los Angeles (First Weekend; $36 million)
2. Rango (Second Weekend; $23.1 million)
3. Red Riding Hood (First Weekend; $14.1 million)
4. The Adjustment Bureau (Second Weekend; $11.5 million)
5. Mars Needs Moms (First Weekend; $6.8 million)
6. Hall Pass (Third Weekend; $5.1 million)
7. Beastly (Second Weekend; $5.1 million)
8. Just Go With It (Fifth Weekend; $4 million)
9. The King's Speech (Sixteenth Weekend; $3.6 million)
10. Gnomeo and Juliet (Fifth Weekend; $3.5 million)

Box Office Update: To Another Day...

Well, 2011 still continues to pale in comparison to 2010, but this weekend could actually be considered a modest success. I'm going to consider 2010 an anomaly, as it started out huger than it had any right to, and then eventually drowned into the doldrums of summer before making it to a decent winter season. This year seems to be moving at a pace that's more agreeable, even if it's seen as a massive failure right now. This weekend was never going to beat out the same weekend last year, mostly because last year ushered in the surprise success of Alice in Wonderland. That film truly robbed the 3D market a month before ticket prices escalated and people began to question the value of 3D.

This weekend, we had Rango, which is a completely new enterprise that's only working off the children's demographic and Johnny Depp's name, even though it's animated. So from that perspective, I'd say it opened pretty spectacularly, especially seeing as it should hold onto those numbers in the following weeks. Gnomeo and Juliet is on its way to $100 million, mostly through promising repeat business, and when the decision props up between seeing Rango and Mars Needs Moms, I think people will pick the former. As for the live action option of this weekend, The Adjustment Bureau underperformed, as expected. I guess the less-than-amazing reviews did take a beating to the morale of moviegoers.

Beastly, surprisingly enough, managed the third spot on the chart, garnering just over $10 million. That's crazy for a film opening at under 2000 sites, but I imagine it won't be doing too well over the next couple weeks, because reviews for the film have been anything but pretty. The only other thing worth commenting on is The King's Speech's post-Oscar weekend, which boosted the undeserving film above Inglourious Basterds to be The Weinstein Company's highest grossing feature. This weekend was a 37.2% drop from last year, but a 17.3% increase from 2009 when Watchmen opened in the top spot.

1. Rango (First Weekend; $38 million)
2. The Adjustment Bureau (First Weekend; $21 million)
3. Beastly (First Weekend; $10.1 million)
4. Hall Pass (Second Weekend; $9 million)
5. Gnomeo and Juliet (Fourth Weekend; $6.9 million)
6. Unknown (Third Weekend; $6.6 million)
7. The King's Speech (Fifteenth Weekend; $6.5 million)
8. Just Go With It (Fourth Weekend; $6.5 million)
9. I Am Number Four (Third Weekend; $5.7 million)
10. Justin Bieber: Never Say Never (Fourth Weekend; $4.3 million)

Oscar 2010: Final Words

"At the end, he called me to his deathbed. He could barely speak, but he took the trouble to tell me one last thing. He pulled me close, and I could only make out one word. 'Disappointed'." - Robert Fischer (Cillian Murphy) from Inception

We can now leave 2010 to the past, and stop dwelling in it with anger and desperation. The awards season is over, and much like Maurice Fischer in Inception, I am too am disappointed. If there's one thing that last night's Oscar telecast showed us, it's how pathetic 2010 in film was compared to 2009. I was part of the most delusional Oscar party in America, with people who honestly felt that 2010 was a modest improvement, both in respects to the films and the ceremony. I wasn't a fan of 2009's mixed up and frantic show, last night's show was all over the place. It was as corny and frantically emotional as the Mad Hatter in Alice in Wonderland, the second worst Oscar winning film of this year. But thinking back to the films released, there is a noticeable rift in quality.

The King's Speech and Inception both walked away with four nominations, the latter in all technical categories and the former only in the big eight categories. The Social Network only walked away with three, all of which were well deserved awards. Some of the most disappointing awards decisions were based solely on the politics of the show. Banksy definitely deserved to win for Exit Through the Gift Shop, but the Academy was without a doubt fearful that he would ruin their precious little show, as if they needed any help with that. I'm a moderately understanding person, but I just don't stand for giving awards out to anything less than the best in each category. It didn't help that there just weren't many interesting films out this year. Probably the most disappointing upset was Roger Deakins being snubbed from Best Cinematography once again. The man just can't seem to catch a break, even after all these years.

I guess that's the way things are meant to go. The best films of the year go by under-appreciated, and the obvious crowd-pleasers are the victors. It wasn't always like this, as the Academy decided in the past two honor the best, not compromising for the sake of flash. 2007 may have been the best Oscar year in the past ten years, with films like Juno, No Country for Old Men, and There Will Be Blood pushing audiences once again to widen their horizons. If this year were more like that year, the five nominees for Best Picture would be Winter's Bone, Black Swan, The Social Network, True Grit, and The Fighter, not even mentioning The King's Speech. Those great days are past us, but I sill manage to hope that changes this year.

If things seem somewhat sparse here for the next week, it's because I'm quite honestly busy catching up with my real life. I need a break from this mania, and what better way to do it than immerse myself completely in this year. The next month offers some exciting features, and even if they turn out to be merely unintelligent diversions, that will be a welcome break from the over-intellectualized ramblings we Oscar prognosticators have been partaking in over the past few months. It all boils down to one night, and that night has to deliver. This year, it just didn't. I leave you with my guiltiest pleasure from last night's show.

Oscar 2010: The Glitz. The Glamour. The Horror.

This is as mixed an Oscar ceremony as there's ever been, in some ways better, and in some ways far worse than last year's messy ceremony. The evening started out promising with a fantastic opening montage of the ten Best Picture nominees. Then Anne Hathaway and James Franco came on, and the MTV Movie Awards style film tribute began. It was distracting, and an omen of terrible things to come. The monologue wasn't that great either, with most of the jokes landing flat on the ground. To her credit, Anne Hathaway did a great job whenever she was on the stage alone, which was sadly most of the time. I can't tell why James Franco decided to sit out most of the ceremony. He made such a big deal about it for the past month. Did anyone else think he was getting high backstage?

The winners started out optimistically, with Alice in Wonderland taking Best Art Direction and Inception taking Best Cinematography. It was enough to suggest that perhaps a major upset was in store for The King's Speech. Instead, as we reached the end, it sunk in that this was just a major misfire. Most of the deserving films and filmmakers in each category weren't rewarded, such as Roger Deakins for True Grit, or Banksy for Exit Through the Gift Shop. True, there were some rewarding winners, such as Natalie Portman for Black Swan, Melissa Leo and Christian Bale for The Fighter, and Wally Pfister for Inception, but none of those could stop The King's Speech from walking away with an undeserved Best Picture win. Much worse, Tom Hooper won Best Director, stealing it away from five more deserving nominated directors, and countless others who weren't nominated. Will Gluck was more deserving for his work on Easy A. That's where I am?

So what did I enjoy about the show? Well, there's the aforementioned opening montage, as well as the montage for Best Picture. Those were effective, but the latter wreaked of The King's Speech. Even the producers of the show knew it was going to win. I'm probably the only one who loved the auto-tune segment, which was hilarious and off-kilter in the best way possible. I just loved it. What was the absolute best part of the show? Kirk Douglas' extended segment, obviously. The man is well past his prime, and that's the best thing about him. He just went on so hilariously, and it was hard not to burst into hysterical laughter at times. However, most times during the show, including those chanting children at the end, were overkill to the nth degree. For that, this is one of the worst shows in recent memory. Perhaps ever. It's something you didn't notice until all the proceedings were done with. Please comment below on your thoughts from the ceremony. Good? Atrociously and irreparably awful? Have at it!

D-

Box Office Update: So Weak

Looks like animated fanfare is gaining speed, while everything else is quite literally stalling. Gnomeo and Juliet finally took the top spot after holding strong over the past two weeks. Hall Pass was the biggest new release, but didn't really astonish with its numbers. Drive Angry came in eighth with only $5 million the first weekend, which is far less than it probably deserved. Justin Bieber: Never Say Never released the extended director's cut, which only slightly held back the decline. The King's Speech is probably the most notable, expanding to 300 more locations to make for nice hold on Oscar weekend. Surprisingly, despite everything, this weekend had only a 10% decrease from last year. It looks like we've finally reached the turnaround in the box office.

1. Gnomeo and Juliet (Third Weekend; $14.2 million)
2. Hall Pass (First Weekend; $13.4 million)
3. Unknown (Second Weekend; $12.4 million)
4. Just Go With It (Third Weekend; $11.1 million)
5. I Am Number Four (Second Weekend; $11 million)
6. Justin Bieber: Never Say Never (Third Weekend; $9.2 million)
7. The King's Speech (Fourteenth Weekend; $7.6 million)
8. Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son (Second Weekend; $7.5 million)
9. Drive Angry (First Weekend; $5.1 million)
10. The Roommate (Fourth Weekend; $2.1 million)

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Picture

The votes have been tallied, and there's nothing I can say now that can change any heads about where they're going. So going into this evening, there's a great chance that the inevitable winner of this prize is going to be The King's Speech. Even after everything, I can still say I at least like the film, because it is inspirational and funny, but a feat of immense filmmaking, it is not. All the same, if by some miracle The King's Speech doesn't win, I don't think we'll be able to predict which feature will win. Sure, The Social Network is runner-up in the books, but things have changed so immensely that I can't tell what will happen.

What I truly hope happens, and this is if only the wildest of dreams come true, is that Black Swan takes home Best Picture, matching it up with its Indie Spirit Award last night. The film is an undeniable feat of advanced filmmaking that shakes you to your core, which is what a film should do. Although, the Academy may still be too apprehensive to let such an off-the-wall trinket as this walk away with the top prize. To be honest, I feel like the odds for an upset would be in The Fighter's favor, and I think that I'd be fine with that. Sure, I'm not a huge fan of Mark Wahlberg, but everyone else in the cast gives tops performances, it's nicely directed, and aggressively edited. My mindset is in the mood for a change.

Of course, The Social Network isn't totally out of the cards. They amassed a ridiculous amount of critics awards, and that heft should be able to push them over the threshold. There are probably a few Academy members who are out rooting for Fincher's film to win. It's a little strange how I'm not one of them. True Grit is another potent possibility, given the authentic nature of it, it seems like exactly the sort of carefully drawn out film that the Academy would honor. I'm sure it's not going to happen, but I think it'd definitely be nice. Toy Story 3 has been gaining some steam that hasn't really gone anywhere. If tonight were the night that the first animated feature took home Best Picture, I think there'd be more rapturous applause. And I quite honestly don't see a reason why it shouldn't be in the cards. It's one of the best features of 2010. That's undeniable. What's with the apprehension?

The rest of the field is filled out by films that don't really stand a chance. 127 Hours was perhaps as great as any film this year, but it's all packed into a smaller package, and I think the Academy would go for something bigger. I'm sure that the Academy isn't exactly a bunch of Inception fans, seeing as they didn't see fit to nominate Nolan for Best Director. I don't see much success for the film beyond the technical categories, sad as it is to say. The Kids Are All Right would be a sweet winner, but does anybody really believe this could happen? Same answer for Winter's Bone, as unfortunate as that is. It's a shame how sometimes the best aren't recognized as such through strange technicalities.

1. Black Swan
2. The Kids Are All Right
3. Winter's Bone
4. The Social Network
5. Toy Story 3
6. True Grit
7. The Fighter
8. Inception
9. 127 Hours
10. The King's Speech

Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win (My Pick): Black Swan
Potential Upset: The Social Network
Should Have Been Nominated: The Illusionist

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Director

It's widely assumed that the winner of Best Picture usually comes out with the Oscar for Best Director as well, and it's happened so often that it's become difficult to diverse the two. Based on that assumption, Tom Hooper should by all means be going home with the Oscar tomorrow for The King's Speech, and I pray that that does not happen. That would be a catastrophic blow to the Academy's reputation, because Hooper is completely new to the awards field, and that's beside the fact that his direction doesn't leave any imprint on the feature. It's quite obviously plain and indistinct in appearance, which obviously works for the average moviegoer, but doesn't work with the quality obsessed.

To be honest, I didn't believe that Hooper would even be nominated, because there were such dynamic impressions that the other directors this year gave within their films. I expected Danny Boyle to make it in for carrying 127 Hours right along with Franco. Even more than that, I expected Christopher Nolan to be nominated for Inception, as most others did. The man has created such a wide diversity of moods and expressions across his career, and whenever we felt lost during Inception, he brought the vision to show us the way. There was a forward motion to his direction that kept the project together.

David O. Russell has me in a divided place, because while I have massively lightened up on The Fighter, I still think that he was missing his own personal groove. It was closer to distinction than Hooper achieved. I'll give him that. I'm still greatly impressed with Joel & Ethan Coen's work on True Grit, keeping a streak of gritty authenticity that the film would have been lost without. And David Fincher? Well, seeing as he's the most likely to win this Sunday, he quite obviously brought the goods to the job. He truly reinvented himself, drawing a line away from his past films like Fight Club and Se7en. In every single scene of The Social Network, you can see an attention to detail far beyond any other. To not reward that would be a shame.

Personally, my own interests skew darker than that, and I'm put in favor of Darren Aronofsky for his work on Black Swan. It's quite possibly the most impressive directing job of his career, because I wasn't taken with The Fountain, and The Wrestler was mostly a showcase for Mickey Rourke. Black Swan brims with distinction, creating a fine conceivable line between the two sides of each character and pushing towards the heart of the matter. It's highly meticulous emotional territory, not to mention the specificity required in the world of ballet. Aronofsky no doubt had to take a crash course in ballet like all the actors in the film, just to get into the heart of the world he was creating. It's an emotional feast in the most subtle of ways, always straying away from being too obvious. Unfortunately, this isn't the year Aronofsky wins, and we'll have to wait for that to happen.

1. Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
2. David Fincher (The Social Network)
3. Joel & Ethan Coen (True Grit)
4. David O. Russell (The Fighter)
5. Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)

Will Win: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Should Win: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Potential Upset: Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
Should Have Been Nominated: Christopher Nolan (Inception)

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Lead Actor

By now it's an undisputed fact that Colin Firth's performance in The King's Speech is the best of 2010, and there's no denying that fact. It almost makes it difficult to accept that in a race this clean, but Firth really deserves it. I think he probably deserved it more for his role in A Single Man last year, but better for him to receive recognition now than to never receive it at all. And what of the rest of the field? They could be mere flies on a windshield up against Firth, but they're actually pretty close and fantastic performances in my opinion. The only one I can't comment on is Javier Bardem, because, like many Americans out there, I still haven't seen Biutiful. I know. I'm a massive failure.

Probably the actor who I truly wish was nominated this year was Aaron Eckhart for Rabbit Hole, and I ride on the same current as most people. Nicole Kidman is great in that film, but I found that the rollercoaster heart of the piece was Eckhart's rigorous emotionality. Instead, Jeff Bridges was nominated for True Grit, and I'm only slightly not okay with that. I think his performance in the film was great, and I almost got to wishing he would win this year and Firth had won last year. What stopped me was that this really isn't the main attraction. This is a supporting performance meant to serve Hailee Steinfeld's leading work as Mattie Ross. I also kind of wish Matt Damon was nominated for his work as Labeouf, but that is undisputably supporting in any case, and the supporting branch is packed as it is.

A month back, I would've said that Jesse Eisenberg was going to steal the gold from Colin Firth, and my reason for that was that he was gaining some traction in the critics awards, and if there's any performance that impressed as much as Firth's, it was Eisenberg's in The Social Network. Nobody would have thought that the Michael Cera look alike would have so much to offer, but he really hit it out of the park in a way that nobody expected, even after they'd seen the film. If Firth didn't have this locked up, I'd say Eisenberg would be the one to steal it. The actor I kind of pegged as the underdog was actually James Franco. Before I saw 127 Hours, I felt like it was a bit overblown. I couldn't have been more wrong, because Franco does deliver some brave work as Aron Ralston, and manages to translate his journey emotionally. That's the best an actor can aspire to.

1. Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
2. Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
3. James Franco (127 Hours)
4. Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
5. Javier Bardem (Biutiful)

Will & Should Win: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Potential Upset: Are you serious? No way!

Should Have Been Nominated: Aaron Eckhart (Rabbit Hole)

Box Office Update: Half-Hearted Benefits

Last weekend was a nice step in the right direction in terms of where the film industry is financially and where it needs to be, so there are about two ways that you can respond to these numbers. You can keep with the pessimistic tone of the last several weeks and say that the box office is regressing back to where it was before, or you can keep hope alive and see the decent numbers for what they are. I can confidently say that the array of poor films earned far more than they probably deserved to, and that's a good thing. It means that audiences are still making as poor decisions as they always have, and they haven't just gotten tired of going to the movies.

Liam Neeson ruled the box office this weekend, with Unknown coming in just $3 million short of Taken's opening two years ago. I Am Number Four came in at number two, although that might change when numbers for Monday's earnings make their way in. Big Mommas earned far more than it should have, and it makes me sad that people actually wasted their time with it, and even worse, that some actually enjoyed it. Gnomeo and Juliet held onto third place, dropping only 23.5%, with Just Go With It and Justin Bieber: Never Say Never dropped 40.4% and 53.9% respectively. Finishing it off on a lighter note, Black Swan and The King's Speech passed the $100 million mark this weekend, meaning that more than half the Best Picture nominees this year have reached that milestone. I don't believe that people don't notice or appreciate quality filmmaking anymore. Just look at those numbers.

1. Unknown (First Weekend; $21.8 million)
2. I Am Number Four (First Weekend; $19.5 million)
3. Gnomeo and Juliet (Second Weekend; $19.4 million)
4. Just Go With It (Second Weekend; $18.2 million)
5. Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son (First Weekend; $17 million)
6. Justin Bieber: Never Say Never (Second Weekend; $13.6 million)
7. The King's Speech (Thirteenth Weekend; $6.6 million)
8. The Roommate (Third Weekend; $4.1 million)
9. The Eagle (Second Weekend; $3.6 million)
10. No Strings Attached (Fifth Weekend; $3.1 million)

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Original Screenplay

Here is yet another case of determining what should win in opposition to what actually will win. The only film nominated for Best Original Screenplay that I haven't seen is Another Year, and as things are right now, most people haven't gotten around to it. That's probably the main reason it didn't get any more nominations than this, and that's clearly a shame. However, we can't really do anything about that now, so we can only deal with what we've been given. The film that's undoubtedly going to win is The King's Speech, which is prepping to tie with Inception and The Social Network for most wins next Sunday. Going over the film again, things are rather predictable, and the dialogue a bit forced. It has the touch of experience from a former stammerer, but not much more than that.

There is a chance that Inception could come in for the win here, seeing as it already won the WGA award about two weeks ago. That was the greatest glimmer of light in this predictable awards season, and if anything's going to upset The King's Speech, it will be Nolan's film. That's something I'm desperately hoping for. If the world were to go by my own specific plan, as I sometime imagine it should, The Kids Are All Right would walk away with this specific prize. Across the past several months, the one thing that has stayed a constant is Lisa Cholodenko's suburban comedy, and I remain steadfastly in love with the film. The only lacking bit of the script is Julianne Moore's still heart-rendering confession to the family at the end of the film, but everything other than that is gold.

The only other contender in this race, and the one that doesn't stand a single chance in hell, is The Fighter. Since seeing the film, I have greatly lightened up on it, and it's been making its way up the ranks over the past few weeks, but the predictable story remains predictable. I would much rather have had Black Swan be nominated here, because there are some wonderfully original ideas employed in Aronofsky's latest work of art. It's a pity that isn't nominated.

1. The Kids Are All Right
2. Inception
3. Another Year
4. The King's Speech
5. The Fighter

Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: The Kids Are All Right
Potential Upset: Inception
Should Have Been Nominated: Black Swan

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Cinematography

Coming on the heels of yesterday's announcement of Wally Pfister taking the ASC win for Inception, the Oscar for Best Cinematography is very much a two horse race now. At the top of my list, and the person I'm personally rooting for, Roger Deakins for True Grit. Authenticity is something I really go for in terms of cinematography, so films of a more fantastical nature like Inception tend to be lower down on my list. It's not that Wally Pfister didn't do a fantastic job, but the coats of computer generated visuals are mostly responsible for the awe that the audiences feel.

What Roger Deakins did with Joel & Ethan Coen's western was take some down-to-earth sets and landscapes, and show how textured and beautiful they can be. There's not a shot of the film in which I can truly say I was dissatisfied, from start to finish. One of the less obvious treasures in this race is Matthew Libatique's work on Black Swan. The combination of the set design and the way the film is shot creates a visceral and reality-grounded experience, and as Nina descends into madness, the camera goes into a marvelous freely spinning routine that rivals the dancers on screen. It's not going to take the prize, but it is worth noting that it got the nomination. The last two film in the race as The Social Network and The King's Speech, neither of which are truly deserving of any acknowledgment. If I were to place a bet on which of these is most likely to pull an upset, I'd go with the former.

1. True Grit
2. Black Swan
3. Inception
4. The Social Network
5. The King's Speech

Will Win: Inception
Should Win: True Grit
Potential Upset: The Social Network
Should Have Been Nominated: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1

Awards 2010: BAFTA Winners

The BAFTA awards took place today, and I just knew that The King's Speech was going to be the main player. They're biased when it comes to that film, so I can't say this is a totally reliable ceremony when it comes to what's actually going to win on Oscar night. Early on, it felt like perhaps the British period piece wouldn't be the strongest winner of the ceremony. No such luck, as the film later picked up acting wins for Rush, Carter, and Firth in their respective categories. I was surprised Alice in Wonderland won as much as it did, seeing as it's been on the decline for some time now. Natalie Portman won Best Actress, effectively snuffing out any hopes Annette Bening had of winning. Perhaps the most telling win of this ceremony was David Fincher for Best Director. It offers just enough to say that Tom Hooper is not the frontrunner has most have pegged him.

Best Picture: The King's Speech
Best British Film: The King's Speech
Best Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Best Actress: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
Best Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Cinematography: True Grit
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Production Design: Inception
Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
Best Foreign Language Film: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Makeup: Alice in Wonderland
Best Editing: The Social Network
Best Sound: Inception
Best Original Score: The King's Speech

Box Office Update: Sandler ≥ Bieber

After several depressing weekends at the box office, none of which were boosted by any bouts of quality cinema. In at least one respect, this weekend was a step in the right direction. It was a tight race for the top spot, and Adam Sandler came out on top of the Valentine's Day box office with the romantic comedy Just Go with It. There was a pretty modest increase from Friday to Saturday, so it's a safe bet that it'll persevere through the coming weeks. Justin Bieber: Never Say Never came rather front-loaded on Friday, causing an 11% drop on Saturday. Concert films like this are usually hits for one week before generally disappearing, so I'd expect a similar outcome here.

The real surprise of the weekend was Gnomeo and Juliet coming in third with $25.5 million, making it the highest grossing narrative 3D of this year so far. That's not necessarily saying much, but if kids keep heading out to see it, as we know they will, it shouldn't drop more than 30% per week. The weakest of the new releases was The Eagle, so it seems that Channing Tatum's grizzled exterior can only do so much to draw in the female audience members, and the promise of a roman action film has lost its taste on young men. Most traces of the post-2010 Oscar film boost has faded from the top ten, aside from Best Picture frontrunner The King's Speech. Ultimately, this weekend was still down nearly 30% from where it was last year, when Valentine's Day opened in first, but it's headed in the right direction towards rejuvenation. It's going to be an uphill battle from here on out.

1. Just Go with It (First Weekend; $31 million)
2. Justin Bieber: Never Say Never (First Weekend; $30.2 million)
3. Gnomeo and Juliet (First Weekend; $25.5 million)
4. The Eagle (First Weekend; $8.6 million)
5. The Roommate (Second Weekend; $8.4 million)
6. The King's Speech (Twelfth Weekend; $7.4 million)
7. No Strings Attached (Fourth Weekend; $5.6 million)
8. Sanctum (Second Weekend; $5.1 million)
9. True Grit (Eight Weekend;$3.7 million)
10. The Green Hornet (Fifth Weekend; $3.6 million)

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Costume Design

I can't say I'm a reliable source when it comes to placing bets on this specific battle. I was actually hoping for Inception to make it amongst the nominations, with all the crazy rumblings going on in my head. I was just fascinated by the specificity of the several different costumes for each character. Cobb, Saito, and Arthur have such subtle differences in their seemingly uniform suits. There's a uniqueness about Eames' different outfits, and Ariadne had some lovely little outfits. Mal steals the show, and she's pretty much the entire backing of my love in this particular category.

This is one of the only categories that The King's Speech actually deserves to win. Of all the aspects of the film, I especially appreciated the costumes. I haven't actually seen I Am Love, but from the bits and clips I've seen, the costumes are pretty damn stunning, so if this comes in for a surprise win, all the better. The Tempest was also intriguing when it came to what the characters wore, but everything else fails to match up. I'm not about to jab Alice in Wonderland for the costumes in it, because that was one of the few things I truly enjoyed about the film. True Grit, while perhaps the strongest film of the bunch, is the weakest link in this category. It doesn't do much that I haven't seen before or that truly stuck out to me. This category is quite clear cut if you ask me.

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Art Direction

If it seems like I'm pegging The King's Speech as the potential upset in most categories it's nominated for, that's because I am. When it comes down to it, there are only two categories that Tom Hooper's film deserves to win for, and the rest are undeserving. I'd be a little lighter on it in terms of this category if there wasn't such vivid competition. The visuals in the film are only occasionally inspiring, but definitely not more than the other nominees. Alice in Wonderland, while rendered hideously revolting by the visual effects, has some of the most stunning and colorful art direction of 2010. That being said, it's chances are squashed by the end product.

As far as period films go, Joel & Ethan Coen's True Grit has the upper hand in terms of visualization, although much of that is due to Roger Deakins' cinematography. I don't expect much in terms of art direction. The film I think is most deserving of the win is Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1. The sets they built for Malfoy Manor, the Weasley Wedding, and the Ministry of Magic, along with the unprecedented scope of the set design really should put this at the head of the pack. Somehow it doesn't, so I'm going to say the film that most likely will win is Christopher Nolan's Inception. In a film entirely dependent on elaborate architecture, the prowess is brought much closer to the surface by Ariadne's character. You look around at the surroundings because it's part of her creation. The King's Speech might take that away, but I dearly hope not.

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Original Score

Definitely one of the most competitive competitions this year is for Original Score, and even though this should be a two horse race, somehow it's been made into something more by The King's Speech. I'm not going to lie due to my affinity towards Alexandre Desplat, because The King's Speech is the least deserving score on this slate. I take into account 127 Hours, whose sole melody I remember "Lovely Day" by Bill Withers. Desplat's work on the film boiled down to the simple suites that he's been doing for year, and it was nowhere near as expansive and emotional as his work on Deathly Hallows: Part 1, nor anywhere close to the originality he brought to The Ghost Writer. I absolutely adore Desplat's work, which is the main reason I acknowledged him as the greatest contributor of 2010. He deserves to receive recognition, but not this year, and not for this score. He's got better work on the horizon, most notably Deathly Hallows: Part 2 and The Tree of Life.

How to Train Your Dragon was John Powell's greatest achievement in years, weaving so many memorable themes that equal the works of John Williams in his heyday. That being said, he's not going to take the gold with this particular work. The two scores in this race with the greatest chance at victory utilized the electronic in a fascinating way. My personal pick is quite obviously Inception, which is Hans Zimmer's most original score in years. Nobody else could have done it like him. The other is Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross' work on The Social Network. Whoever has griped at the score not expanding the feel of the film should shut it. They're only pissed that TRON Legacy didn't get in, and while I appreciate Daft Punk's work, I didn't realize until just recently how similar their score is to the score for The Dark Knight. Getting back to Reznor and Ross, their score defined our generation in a way that the film came just short of, not that they were aiming at capturing that. The Golden Globe win in favor of The Social Network raised the stakes of this particular race, and it'll be interesting to see what goes down later this month.

1. Inception
2. The Social Network
3. How to Train Your Dragon
4. 127 Hours
5. The King's Speech

Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: Inception
Potential Upset: The King's Speech
Should Have Been Nominated: The Ghost Writer