OSCAR 2011 PREDICTIONS: Best Picture

This is the absolute last race that anybody wants to talk about, because we all know inevitably what it's going to be. "The Artist" is going to win, and I still feel decidedly undecided in respects to that win. Why the hell do I feel that way? Because even though I love "The Artist" more than any other film in this category, I am still rather looking for some kind of adventurous buzz from the Oscars. I want something exciting to happen that will radiate vibes and talks to be bandied about for weeks. For several weeks, I did not have a film that I really wanted to champion. I look at the list of nine, and I honestly don't care enough about really any of them. Not even "The Artist".

Then last Friday I revisited "Moneyball", Bennett Miller's math-behind-baseball film that was well liked back in September, but lost its heat since then. It's easy to flash an indifferent eye its way, and in fact in many other situations I would. But I keep on circling back to a line that I believe defines the situation that the Academy Awards happen to be in right now. "I know these guys. I know the way they think, and they will erase us. And everything we've done here; None of it will matter." In going across every single category, I find the films that will win are never the ones I'd want. I don't have any feeling of satisfactions about the group that the Academy assembles as the best in these particular fields.

That's where I get off sore. "Moneyball" is a film that's entirely about the undervalued, and it's been greatly undervalued time and again this year. Mind you, it's far from my favorite film of the year, and in fact it didn't even crack the honorable mentions with me. I just adore the message it would send if it did win that impossible win. But I suppose I can't feel too bad about my favorite film of the bunch, "The Artist", winning on Sunday either. I just get annoyed with what they've fill the categories with this year. There is a far better group of nominees that have been criminally overlooked in this particular year. It seems so easy to make the right decision, but this year they just fouled up as hard as ever.

AMPAS' Fantastic New Oscar Rules

I'm not used to hearing logic and reason from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, so when they actually make a good and intriguing decision then it makes a big difference. The AMPAS has just released a plethora of new rules and regulations regarding this coming Oscar season, many of the small, but one of them being a major game changer. As far as nominations go, next year there could be anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees for Best Picture. It all depends on how many films exceed 5% of the number one votes on the ballots. I, for one, am absolutely for this new rule, as it adds more difficulty to the game of prediction, and a bit of mystery as to how things unfold on the morning nominations are announced.

Personally, I'm not at all a fan of placing predictions, because quite often the Academy overlooks the more deserving films in each year, instead deciding to play things on the safe side. I won't start placing bets until late September at the earliest, and I don't feel confident placing much stock in films I haven't had the opportunity to see myself. So that's all I'll say as far as my Oscar predictions for the Summer, in that they will not happen. I learned this past year not to care about who wins and who does not.

As far as the other rules go, they're pretty basic. In the animated feature race, if there are 13 to 15 films that qualify, there will be four nominees. Anything higher goes to 5, and anything lower goes to 3, so there's a solid middle ground. They've also expanded the list of finalists for visual effects from 7 to 10, making it a tad more difficult to make predictions. And the documentary branch has adjusted its dates for qualification. All proper changes to make the nominations make more sense.

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Picture

The votes have been tallied, and there's nothing I can say now that can change any heads about where they're going. So going into this evening, there's a great chance that the inevitable winner of this prize is going to be The King's Speech. Even after everything, I can still say I at least like the film, because it is inspirational and funny, but a feat of immense filmmaking, it is not. All the same, if by some miracle The King's Speech doesn't win, I don't think we'll be able to predict which feature will win. Sure, The Social Network is runner-up in the books, but things have changed so immensely that I can't tell what will happen.

What I truly hope happens, and this is if only the wildest of dreams come true, is that Black Swan takes home Best Picture, matching it up with its Indie Spirit Award last night. The film is an undeniable feat of advanced filmmaking that shakes you to your core, which is what a film should do. Although, the Academy may still be too apprehensive to let such an off-the-wall trinket as this walk away with the top prize. To be honest, I feel like the odds for an upset would be in The Fighter's favor, and I think that I'd be fine with that. Sure, I'm not a huge fan of Mark Wahlberg, but everyone else in the cast gives tops performances, it's nicely directed, and aggressively edited. My mindset is in the mood for a change.

Of course, The Social Network isn't totally out of the cards. They amassed a ridiculous amount of critics awards, and that heft should be able to push them over the threshold. There are probably a few Academy members who are out rooting for Fincher's film to win. It's a little strange how I'm not one of them. True Grit is another potent possibility, given the authentic nature of it, it seems like exactly the sort of carefully drawn out film that the Academy would honor. I'm sure it's not going to happen, but I think it'd definitely be nice. Toy Story 3 has been gaining some steam that hasn't really gone anywhere. If tonight were the night that the first animated feature took home Best Picture, I think there'd be more rapturous applause. And I quite honestly don't see a reason why it shouldn't be in the cards. It's one of the best features of 2010. That's undeniable. What's with the apprehension?

The rest of the field is filled out by films that don't really stand a chance. 127 Hours was perhaps as great as any film this year, but it's all packed into a smaller package, and I think the Academy would go for something bigger. I'm sure that the Academy isn't exactly a bunch of Inception fans, seeing as they didn't see fit to nominate Nolan for Best Director. I don't see much success for the film beyond the technical categories, sad as it is to say. The Kids Are All Right would be a sweet winner, but does anybody really believe this could happen? Same answer for Winter's Bone, as unfortunate as that is. It's a shame how sometimes the best aren't recognized as such through strange technicalities.

1. Black Swan
2. The Kids Are All Right
3. Winter's Bone
4. The Social Network
5. Toy Story 3
6. True Grit
7. The Fighter
8. Inception
9. 127 Hours
10. The King's Speech

Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win (My Pick): Black Swan
Potential Upset: The Social Network
Should Have Been Nominated: The Illusionist

Open Thread: If YOU Had An Oscar Ballot...

Well, up to this point, I've done my part to make my position on this Sunday's Academy Awards clear. I've said what will win in comparison to what obviously should win, minus the two categories I'm covering tomorrow and Sunday. Now it's your turn, and I don't want you to go ahead and pick what everyone expects to win. I want you to honestly say what you think is going to win in the comments section. That's the one purpose of this post. To see what you'd like to win. The nominations in each category can be seen on the predictions page.

Potter Watch (16 of 77): "Deathly Hallows" Surprise Oscar Contender?

Currently, there is quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding this year's Oscar race. The Black Swan trailer came out yesterday, and there's already talk that this could catapult Natalie Portman into the top of the Best Actress race, but that it isn't quite Best Picture material. There's still a lot of people questioning whether or not Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life will be released this year or not, and I'm in strong belief that it won't. Same goes for Peter Weir's The Way Back, which hasn't had a lot of buzz going for it. So I have a strong belief that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 has a huge chance at one of those spots.

When the trailer for the two-part finale came out, people devoted two hours of their day to continuously watching it (or at least I did). There hasn't been an overtly bad film in this franchise to date, but there have been a few disappointing ones (Chamber of Secrets, Order of the Phoenix). Now that we know basic subject matter of the first part, it seems less like the first half of a film, and sounds like an entire adventure. The film is definitely going to be up for some technical credits, including Original Score (Alexandre Desplat), Visual Effects, and Cinematography (Eduardo Serra), but why not go further?

Last year, David Yates proved himself to be an accomplished director with Half-Blood Prince. We have roughly the same creative team as last time, but with a lot more events happening in this installment. Recently, Daniel Radcliffe has said that the first part is mostly a character study on our trio, and that's usually what the Academy goes for. A more personal piece with plenty of action in it does sound a lot like another recent big-budget Oscar contender, Inception. So I'd say this film has as much a chance as most of the other films being released in the latter part of the year at the big three races: Picture, Director, and Screenplay.

Oscar Lookout: Inception's awards prospects

After taking eighteen paragraphs to write about how much I loved Inception, I've gotten tired of talking about it, so I promise this will be the last you hear about it from me for a while. The film's Oscar prospects have been all over the board, and people are definitely uncertain of how the academy will react. If it were me, I'd have the film up for several major categories. I really enjoyed the film that much, and I think that people agree. The box office estimates for Sunday were about 2.5 million less than what the film actually made, so word of mouth is surely doing wonders for the film.

I think that this film will probably linger on through to awards season, and it will definitely be nominated for Best Picture at this year's Oscars. I'm very certain of that, because that's pretty much why the Academy expanded the field to ten nominations. They did it so that some of the more audience friendly pics would have more of a chance. If they don't have at least three films that grossed north of $200 million nominated for Best Picture, they have pretty much failed. I also believe that Nolan will be nominated for Best Director, because his attention to detail shows up in every frame of the film. It's a crime that he was snubbed in 2008 for The Dark Knight. It won't happen again this year.

The technicals are a lock no matter what. We don't have to worry about nominations in Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Art Design Visual Effects, Film Editing, or Original Score. It may have some trouble nabbing a cinematography nod, but I think it will make it. The screenplay for the film stands a good chance of being nominated, because it's one of the most original works that's been made in a long time. The biggest question mark on the board is the actors. There are reservations about whether or not any of the actors really deserve it, but I think DiCaprio's work this year, split between Inception and Shutter Island, is deserving of a nomination. It would be an unfair snub to cancel him out on that.

As for the supporting work, it is all really fantastic here. I can see Marion Cotillard being nominated for her fractured portrayal of Mal, but the role may be too small for much recognition. On the other hand, Vanessa Redgrave was nominated for six minutes in Atonement, so we can't be too worried about that. Of the supporting actors, if anyone were nominated, I'd have a hard time deciding between Ken Watanabe and Joseph Gordon-Levitt. Both are exceedingly charming in their roles, and both would be fine nominations. So here are the awards the film has chances at being nominated in: Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Editing, Original Score, Cinematography, Art Direction, Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Supp. Actress (Marion Cotillard), Supp. Actor (Joseph Gordon-Levitt or Ken Watanabe)

Oscar Lookout: Best Picture: What's left now?

The majority of 2010 is over by now, and it is somewhat depressing that we've gotten so little in the first half of the year as far as the Academy Awards are concerned. However, we still have a lot of potential winners to be released in the back half of this year. So here's the list of films already released and to be released. The star ratings go as follows:

* - Possible, but not likely
** - Probable nomination, but still uncertain
*** - Highly likely contender

Already Released: Inception ***
Toy Story 3 ***
Winter’s Bone ***
The Kids Are All Right ***

Not Released Yet: Love and Other Drugs **
Black Swan **
Another Year **
Conviction **
The Social Network **
The Tree of Life **
True Grit **
Everything You’ve Got *
Miral **
Somewhere **
The Way Back **
The American *
Biutiful *
Blue Valentine **
Eat, Pray, Love *
Hereafter **
Howl **
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 **
The Fighter *
The Town **
The King's Speech *
127 Hours **