OSCAR 2011 PREDICTIONS: Best Picture

This is the absolute last race that anybody wants to talk about, because we all know inevitably what it's going to be. "The Artist" is going to win, and I still feel decidedly undecided in respects to that win. Why the hell do I feel that way? Because even though I love "The Artist" more than any other film in this category, I am still rather looking for some kind of adventurous buzz from the Oscars. I want something exciting to happen that will radiate vibes and talks to be bandied about for weeks. For several weeks, I did not have a film that I really wanted to champion. I look at the list of nine, and I honestly don't care enough about really any of them. Not even "The Artist".

Then last Friday I revisited "Moneyball", Bennett Miller's math-behind-baseball film that was well liked back in September, but lost its heat since then. It's easy to flash an indifferent eye its way, and in fact in many other situations I would. But I keep on circling back to a line that I believe defines the situation that the Academy Awards happen to be in right now. "I know these guys. I know the way they think, and they will erase us. And everything we've done here; None of it will matter." In going across every single category, I find the films that will win are never the ones I'd want. I don't have any feeling of satisfactions about the group that the Academy assembles as the best in these particular fields.

That's where I get off sore. "Moneyball" is a film that's entirely about the undervalued, and it's been greatly undervalued time and again this year. Mind you, it's far from my favorite film of the year, and in fact it didn't even crack the honorable mentions with me. I just adore the message it would send if it did win that impossible win. But I suppose I can't feel too bad about my favorite film of the bunch, "The Artist", winning on Sunday either. I just get annoyed with what they've fill the categories with this year. There is a far better group of nominees that have been criminally overlooked in this particular year. It seems so easy to make the right decision, but this year they just fouled up as hard as ever.

OSCAR 2011 PREDICTIONS: Original Score

The Academy bias going on this year is simply overwhelming. I wouldn't believe you if you handed me the list of nominees, unassociated with the Oscars, and told me the choices were made by more than just one person. There's simply no diversity going on here anymore. It's to be expected that they would hand two nominations to John Williams for work that honestly isn't that emotion drumming. And of course they're going to hand nods to "The Artist" and "Hugo". It's perfunctory at this point to hand as many nominations to the films at the head of the race. I'm just glad that something as low key as "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" managed to actually make it in.

But I was honestly surprised not to see Alexandre Desplat not here for his expansively emotional work on "Deathly Hallows: Part 2". The film grabbed a couple of nominations this year, or at least enough for the Academy to consider it a sufficient sendoff. Score seemed like an automatic in, or I at least expected Desplat to get in for something. Maybe "Ides of March", since that had quite a prolific anthem to it. One wishes some edge made its way into proceedings with "Hanna" or "Dragon Tattoo", but not so. The voting bodies aren't ones for things that stretch the boundaries of music. They're more interested in dutiful towing of the line.

OSCAR 2011 PREDICTIONS: Cinematography

I'd rather like to think that this race isn't as up in the air as it actually is. I suppose any one of the films nominated could take it with good reason. Sure, "Tree of Life" has all the precursors going for it, and it probably should win in a decent world. Despite my reckless indifference to it, it is the most cinematographically sound film this year. But there's also the massive following on "Hugo" that could prove to sweep the crafts categories. There's buzz going for "The Artist", which as far as brilliant framing is concerned is the most deserving of the group. And some people may just think "War Horse" is just so pretty. To an obnoxious degree it is. There are two ways that this award SHOULD go, but as per usual, I'm not certain it will.

WILL WIN: "The Tree of Life"

COULD WIN: "Hugo"

SHOULD WIN: "The Artist"

SHOULD REALLY WIN: "Shame"

OSCAR 2011 PREDICTIONS: Art Direction

I'm a proponent of specificity over style, at least in terms of Visual Effects, Art Direction, and such in terms of visual mediums. As such it massively pisses me off when films like "Hugo", "Harry Potter", and "War Horse" make it in because they're "pretty". I use pretty in quotations, because in most cases, it's a hollow beauty. I'm quite simply irritated by the fact that the unprecedented-this-year work behind "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" was ignored, but... forgive? No. Just adapt. Of the films here, the only ones I can say are rather good in terms of set design and such are "The Artist" and "Midnight in Paris". However, the latter didn't absolutely rock my socks off, so here's hoping that "Artist" goes for a sweep. It'll probably go to "Hugo", just because that's the obvious choice.

WILL WIN: "Hugo"

COULD/SHOULD WIN: "The Artist"

SHOULD REALLY WIN: "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy"

AWARDS 2011: "Hugo" Leads the Oscar Nods

Well, that could have gone a great deal better, couldn't it. I'm not happy about the Oscar nominations, but I'll save the endless rant till much later today. There's much work be done here. Until then, grind out your own grievances against this slate of nods while I go off in the corner and cry for an hour.

Best Picture

"The Artist"
"The Descendants"
"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
"The Help"
"Hugo"
"Midnight in Paris"
"Moneyball"
"The Tree of Life"
"War Horse"

Box Office Update: "Devil" Brings in the New Year

And cue the hordes of analysts trying to figure out the secret behind the surprise success of "The Devil Inside" this weekend. You rarely expect a new release on the first weekend of the year to bring in the business that the recent horror disaster has. Never mind the fact that it grossed more in its first weekend than any film in my top 20 of 2011, save "Rango". There was no buzz going for the film, or at least none that I saw. Is it maybe that this is the only horror film in the market that drove people to see it? Frankly, I don't care. In the one sense, it brings up the box office heading into this year. In the other, it's an abysmal film, and it's become clear very quickly that nobody here cares about filmmaking.

In holdovers, "Mission: Impossible" continued its victory loop on the way to $200 million and its inevitable sequel pickup. "Sherlock Holmes" is still doing quite well, despite the relatively soft opening it had. It's a kind of reminder of how prosperous the January frame can be for films coming out of the holiday fray, as well as Oscar pics. "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" expanded well, hopefully making the Academy regret not paying as much attention to it before. Overall, this weekend was a strong 37.2% above the same frame last year, when "Season of the Witch" produced an equal product as "The Devil Inside", but yielded much weaker results.

AWARDS 2011: PGA go for regulars, plus "Dragon Tattoo"

The producers guild are down to their dirty deeds once more, continuing to officially endorse the films which we all know will be nominated for Best Picture. There's little straying from the course at this point. It's probably going to be a seven film race this year, and if there's three below that are probably not going to make it, they're "Bridesmaids", "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo", and "The Ides of March". The rest are just cruising towards nomination day. I would like to see eight films make the cut, and who's to count out that possibility? If there's a film of the three discounted that could likely make it, it would be "Ides of March", which would be a nice capper to a decidedly dicey road it's been on.

Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

• "The Artist"
• "Bridesmaids"
• "The Descendants"
• "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
• "The Help"

Box Office Update: "Impossible" End to the Year

At this point, I'm just sick of the negativity surrounding the analysis of the box office. Not the box office itself, as it's doing pretty damn well. I can see the top ten of this weekend doing well in the coming month, and an obvious surge for "The Artist" is coming when the nominations eventually do come. It's wise of the Weinstein Company to hold that back just long enough for it to really bring audiences in later on. For now, the box office gold is being spread pretty evenly, since there's nothing to really hog the spotlight. I don't think that'll change in December of this year either, but it's still an honest earnings.

"Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol" overtook "Sherlock Holmes" as far as total box office goes, with it likely heading to finish at or above $200 million. That seals the deal for a fifth film, after all the work this franchise has done. "Alvin and the Chipmunks" continues to do well, as we knew it would, and the same almost goes for "War Horse". I have an equal interest in seeing either of them in theaters, or ever for that matter. And in spite of some perceived-to-be-poor opening numbers for "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo", it bounced back properly to bring its total up to $60 million, on its way to +$100 million. I'd consider that a success for a franchise starter based on a Swedish novel. And the rest is the rest, but it's still an more than modest improvement on last weekend.

Weekend Report: Into the Bright Night

This weekend is where all the cards are put on the table as far as the 2011 endgame is concerned. The box office remains the barest of battle grounds as far as the awards season is concerned, with the holiday vacation usually being when most head out to the Oscar players of the season. Either that, or they head out to whatever commercial plays are strongest in the market. Alas, this year is proving about as disappointing as the last. We know that this can be quite a successful frame, if marketed right. The only film that seems to have the advantage, presently anyway, is "Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol". It's working off of the desperation for the basic need of fun entertainment, and it is proving quite fruitful. Well played Brad Bird.

So where is the disadvantage? So far, and it's painfully unlikely as well, but "The Adventures of Tintin". People just aren't going for the commercial Spielberg play, even though it has proven to be decent fun. It's got a tough time ahead of it this weekend. "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" has things better off, preying on the lovers of the book franchise, and Fincher's own marketed gatherers. "We Bought a Zoo" chose to open on Friday, so no word quite yet on how that will do, but I'd definitely imagine it would be quite the crowd-pleasing heart-warmer. Action whatever "The Darkest Hour" doesn't seem to have any market in the glut of the weekend, and is bound to lose out to "War Horse", which may or may not come sweeping people off their feet with dunder-headed tear-jerking. And that's the long and short of this weekend.

AWARDS 2011: Broadcast Film Critics nominations hit

If I'm pretty damn far behind the beat, it's because more important things in real life have taken up the place of my attention span, however cramped it may be. So now I get along to the BFCA nominations, which remain a mere glyph for what the Oscars might be. The nods are mostly predictable in the vein of what you'd expect. The only thing really worth raising a glass to is Nick Nolte being nominated for supporting actor for "Warrior". Still need to see that one, but I've heard solid things going for the man.

BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

AWARDS 2011: DC Critics go for the odd nods

With the awards season in full swing, it's expected for things to start to form in unexpected manners. The DC critics have continued that trend which started at NBR, and we're really starting to consider which films are genuinely the main players of the season. Until "War Horse" garners a genuine win, I think it's becoming more and more plain that maybe it's not the frontrunner we all thought it would be. Perhaps it's just a lower tier player, as it wasn't able to even scratch past "Win Win" or "Drive" in the DC circuit. It's odd enough that Nicolas Refn's film was in there, and that alone sparks another fire in this awards season that's in much need of some personality.

"Win Win", on the other hand, I wouldn't give too much attention based on this nomination alone. If AWARDSit's a trend that continues on to other awards, we'll definitely take it into consideration. After all, if "The Help" is getting buzz, then we can more than expect to see more light indie flicks like this to rise up. You could categorize "Win Win" right along with "50/50" in that respect. A few more pleasant notes are that Fassbender made it into his first Best Actor field for his performance in "Shame", Elizabeth Olsen and Tilda Swinton continue to be of strong presence in Best Actress, and Andy Serkis and Melissa McCarthy are genuinely getting buzz for the supporting categories. In review, we need more critics awards to tell if DC is not completely off their rocker.

BEST FILM

- "The Artist"

- "The Descendants"

- "Drive"

- "Hugo"

- "Win Win"

Carpet-Bagging: Before the gates open

We are in the last seconds of the pre-awards season, with the New York Film Critics Circle just on the edge of announcing their victors. We can be ready for a handful of surprises when we see exactly where the critics actually swing in their decisions. At the same time, don't be disappointed if the cards land exactly where we expect them to. The current frontrunners are still "The Artist", "The Descendants", and now effectively "War Horse". The trailer placed it as a winning and simple crowdpleaser several months ago, and even then I knew this was a lock for a nod. If you know me well enough, that also means I despised it quite fervently.

It's not that it's not pretty, but I have a much stronger pull to see the stage play and all its unique design elements than this relatively simple and straightforward exercise in spine-chilling. In the meantime, I continued my general cynicism against "The Descendants", which it's a shame when you employ such against an Alexander Payne film and not for it. I quite liked "Sideways", but I can feel the strands that were leading Payne towards this sort of conclusion. George Clooney is the frontrunner in the Best Actor race, and I doubt that's likely to deflate. Who's going to come in and steal the spotlight?

Jean Dujardin? As interesting an idea as that might be, he's pretty much just a nominee here, in the same vein as Christoph Waltz came along in 2009. He's bound to get a lot of offers after this film, and maybe one of them will bring him back around here, but he's not going to gallop away with this one. "The Artist", in the meantime, does have a strong inclination towards Best Picture, but the closer an opportunity it becomes, the less I see in it. It's really starting to seem more disingenuous a treat than the trailer lets on. 150 seconds conveys perhaps everything that the 90 minute film does, if my cynical non-viewer take on it proves fruitful enough.

So what else has shifted? Well, in case you hadn't noticed, the entire Best Picture race has skewed to becoming almost entirely sweet and obnoxiously endearing, even beyond the three frontrunners. I've already lamented about "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close", but I have even more reason to complain now that "Hugo" has entered the conversation quite boldly in comparison. That does give me pause enough to question why I didn't see it while I had the chance over Thanksgiving, but even more over the overlap of the two films' plots. They're practically the same, with the core difference being that Scorsese's film uses breathtaking technologies in a way it's not been seen before and as a tool to give tribute to the past. Stephen Daldry's film is trying to yank those tears out of your eyes in the most manipulative and predictable of ways.

"War Horse" Theatrical Trailer

There's a lot more of the same in the new trailer for Steven Spielberg's "War Horse", and why the hell shouldn't there be? After all, the teaser trailer played brilliantly with pretty much every demographic, and even those who weren't quite so taken with it could still admire it as a trailer. But, it's still all there in the trailer. It's a war film. There's a devoted horse trying to get back home. There's a boy who loved the horse, though NOT in the same way as "Equus". And there's that Niels Arestrup line, which got people illogically pushing for a Supp. Actor nod, even though his presence in the film is likely confined to that scene. And somewhere along the way there are cameos from Emily Watson, Peter Mullan, David Thewlis, Benedict Cumberbatch, and Tom Hiddleston. What more do we need to know? We'll see it. That will certainly happen.

Carpet-Bagging: On the Eve of Venice

Things are about to get really interesting very quickly. The 2011 awards season is basically less than one day from being set into motion, with Venice kicking off their festivities with the premiere of "The Ides of March". This is one that many will be talking about, although I must admit that I'm still unconvinced. Some of the moments in the trailer didn't seem to quite congeal, and the intense thriller push from the marketing team seems to be working counter-productively. It ultimately gets me to the point of wondering exactly what the point is in this film. What are the stakes, if any? Nothing seems clear, which may just be the marketing. We'll have to wait until reviews surface, but I get the feeling I won't get what everyone loves about it.

What "The Ides of March" has on its side is that it's right up the Academy's alley. I haven't a doubt that they'll embrace this one, at least as far as a nomination. There are several films this year, however excellent they may be, that just don't fall in line with the Academy bias. I expect others to debate this claim, but I think "Carnage" is one of those films. Roman Polanski has had a prosperous history with the Academy, but his bad press in recent years has probably dispelled any possibilities of future Oscar success. I'd say Kate Winslet and Christoph Waltz are both potent acting nominees, at least from the trailer. I still get the sense that this film was largely miscast, and by that I mean by 50%. That's a sizable problem.

"War Horse" Teaser Trailer

Certainly looks to me like Spielberg has got an Oscar in the bag on this one, and you can take that as either a compliment or a rejection. This film looks to have pretty much everything that the Academy looks for, with all the sentimentality that sold them on The King's Speech. If we're going off of what they recently did, War Horse is a lock for a nomination. Yes, you could say that I'm making the call a bit early, but this is the sort of phony prestige that they fawn over. Yes, it's pretty, but I can't imagine there being much more to it. I know it's Spielberg, but he hasn't made anything really great, or that good, for nearly the past decade.