OSCAR 2011 PREDICTIONS: Supporting Actor

Did anybody possibly imagine that the supporting actor race this year would be so completely dull and toothless as this? Perhaps, but I dearly hope nobody wanted it. Remember last year when we had Christian Bale's career best as an extreme druggie, John Hawkes' belated arrival, Jeremy Renner's heavy edge accomplice to Ben Affleck, and Mark Ruffalo being just plain awesome. Since when did the Academy just lose those cool points? The closest thing they have this year is Nick Nolte, who is perhaps the only one who really should be here, but the one who just made it in under the wire.

There's no debating that it's Christopher Plummer's to win. Don't get me wrong, because it's a nice performance, but I'm the one who was so much more impressed with the much smaller name Mary Page Keller's performance in "Beginners". I haven't yet, and am not liable to soon see either "Extremely Loud" or "My Week with Marilyn", but I've seen enough of an indication from the trailers to know that I'm not having it for either of the performances in this race. And then there is Academy Award nominee Jonah Hill... I can't. I just can't.

AWARDS 2011: Broadcast Film Critics nominations hit

If I'm pretty damn far behind the beat, it's because more important things in real life have taken up the place of my attention span, however cramped it may be. So now I get along to the BFCA nominations, which remain a mere glyph for what the Oscars might be. The nods are mostly predictable in the vein of what you'd expect. The only thing really worth raising a glass to is Nick Nolte being nominated for supporting actor for "Warrior". Still need to see that one, but I've heard solid things going for the man.

BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Box Office Update: The "King" has Returned

So anyone with measured doubt about how much a 3D re-release of a 2D animated feature from 1995 could really bring in is scratching their heads. Hell, I'm scratching my head at how much "The Lion King 3D" made this weekend. I know that it's kind of brilliant and all, but are people really that eager to revive that classic theater-going experience? I guess that will happen when you release a beloved title that's being re-released specifically for 3D. People aren't going to be interested in seeing it in 2D. They want the entire new experience of it, so maybe I'll end up checking it out later this week. I've heard the film's not bad either.

"Contagion" would've topped the weekend if "Lion King" didn't over-perform to such a degree, instead landing in second from a 35.4% drop. "Drive" topped the rest of the new releases, though still falling to third place. What's more, the mainstream audiences really didn't like this one. Ally that to the action heavy expectations, but I'll get more into that at another time. By the time we get to "The Help", the box office is resting in low digits that garner little to no attention. "Straw Dogs" and "I Don't Know How She Does It" both earned about $5 million apiece. This weekend was a fine improvement from last weekend, but a slight downgrade from last year, when "The Town" and "Easy A" rocked the box office.

1. "The Lion King 3D" (First Weekend; $29.3 million)

2. "Contagion" (Second Weekend; $14.5 million)

3. "Drive" (First Weekend; $11 million)

4. "The Help" (Sixth Weekend; $6.4 million)

5. "Straw Dogs" (First Weekend; $5 million)

6. "I Don't Know How She Does It" (First Weekend; $4.5 million)

7. "The Debt" (Third Weekend; $2.9 million)

8. "Warrior" (Second Weekend; $2.8 million)

9. "Rise of the Apes" (Seventh Weekend; $2.6 million)

10. "Columbiana" (Fourth Weekend; $2.3 million)

Box Office Update: "Contagion" breaks competition down

The top player at the box office this weekend may lead you to believe this weekend was generous. In actuality, "Contagion" was perhaps the only real standout this weekend, with the rest withering in defeat. Soderbergh's film defeated a slump that's been dominated honorably by "The Help" for the past few weeks. Sadly, however, if it weren't for "Contagion", "The Help" would've still conquered the weekend. Despite its most substantial drop of 40%, the film still held on towards the top. Not even "Warrior" could draw in enough audiences, and its weak opening doesn't exactly inspire much confidence in it. The rest of the chart is old hat, with "Bucky Larson" thankfully not even making the top 10. This weekend was just a slight hair above last year, when the stats were pretty much exactly the same with "Resident Evil: Afterlife" in the top spot.

1. "Contagion" (First Weekend; $23.1 million)

2. "The Help" (Fifth Weekend; $8.7 million)

3. "Warrior" (First Weekend; $5.6 million)

4. "The Debt" (Second Weekend; $4.9 million)

5. "Columbiana" (Third Weekend; $4 million)

6. "Rise of the Apes" (Sixth Weekend; $3.9 million)

7. "Shark Night 3D" (Second Weekend; $3.5 million)

8. "Apollo 18" (Second Weekend; $2.9 million)

9. "Our Idiot Brother" (Third Weekend; $2.8 million)

10. "Spy Kids 4" (Fourth Weekend; $2.5 million)

Weekend Report: Exponential Degradation

As cynical as I can be in matters of film, or more accurately inadequate film, it's weekends like these that make a strong enough case for optimism. Last time I went to the theaters was almost a month ago for "The Help", and since then I haven't felt the urge to head out to the theater for something. This weekend I have the widest variety of options, from films I've been excited for, films I'd be willing to give the benefit of the doubt, and films I've been dreading the imminent task of talking about them. Don't expect the box office to be blindingly alight, but expect a notable uptick.

"Contagion" is clearly the main ticket this weekend, as it's the only wide release playing above 2000 theaters. I've heard people go on about the strong star power at play, as I have gone on about it myself. It's interesting that that isn't much of a playing factor this time around. I'm more interested in the effect of the story, and whatever tools Steven Soderbergh may have put to use this time. The marketing of the film should aid in a wide audience appeal throughout the weekend, but I'll still be surprised if it goes any further than $25 million.

Other than that, I can't make any sure promises. I've had an antagonistic tendency towards "Warrior" since the first trailer, and it seemed to me like the formula of how to make an inspirational fight film. That might be exactly what it is, but ZOMG TOM HARDY!!!!! That's my mentality towards it. It's a lot kinder than what's left, which is "Bucky Larson: Born to be a Star". Honestly, if you put me in any position in which I haven't a choice but to see this film, I will put a bullet in yo' head as if you were Gustavo Fring. That might be a bit extreme, but who the hell makes films like this?

For Your Anticipation: "You Owe Me 200 Bucks"

I'll confess some natural curiosity regarding "Warrior", but it's got little to nothing to do with the film itself. I find it, for the most part, to be somewhat disinteresting, and even sweetly repulsive. Call it a gut feeling. However, I will say that what draws my eye is Tom Hardy, who has had a strong way of stealing the show from his co-stars, notably in "Inception" from last year. This is his only role since then, so I might check this out from simple Hardy-deprivation. Although, I'd also be willing to wait for "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy".

Films to see in 2011: September

I was rather disappointed to have nothing to recommend out of the August slate. Both "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" and "The Help" were better than I expected, and I suppose "My Idiot Brother" looks delightful enough. I guess if you still haven't seen anything from August, those are the three I'd suggest. However, now we're on to September, which has burgeoned into an amazingly successful slate in the past few years. Last year we were supplied with both "Easy A" and "The Town", and I think I remember liking "The American" more than the critics did. It didn't quite deserve the bashing it got.

As for this year, successful films seem to be much more widespread. It's not going to be all shelled out in one weekend, which I really do prefer it that way. Things start out in a really obligatory pattern, and I'm not sure why September usually kicks off with below-standard horror flicks. Do not expect me to spend any time or effort on "Shark Night 3D" or "Apollo 18", and I won't expect you to either. I saw a trailer for "Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star" in theaters, and I wanted to run as far away from that place as I could. It didn't put me in the right mood for "Bad Teacher" either. Or maybe it did. I'm not sure.

Things do pick up from there, although I still have no intention towards "Warrior", one way or another. It looks like they're milking the formula once again. I don't consign to Sarah Jessica Parker, nor do I consign to her latest film "I Don't Know How She Does It". "Straw Dogs" seems like your typical remake. "Abduction", "Dolphin Tale", "Killer Elite", and "What's Your Number?" all look dreadful. "Dream House" might be an interesting popcorn horror film, but not more than that. And "Moneyball" looks somewhat uninspired, and actually kind of boring. If you think I skipped a few films, you might want to continue to my top three films for this month, after the jump.

Theatrical Trailer: Warrior

One thing I've learned across the past is that the cheesy inspiration feeling that permeates through these boxing film trailers is by design. I've never been looking forward to a boxing film, because the marketing is meant to be so emotional that you choke on it. Based on that fact, I can't say whether or not I'm looking forward to Warrior, because it seems like a sympathetic play off of The Fighter. One thing you'll notice in this trailer is that it never once says that it's based on a true story, because it isn't. It looks alright, but it seems tailor made to be inspirational. A war hero, brotherly love, and an underdog story? Doesn't that rather feel forceful and manipulative to you? Still, I am looking forward to it for Tom Hardy's performance, what little that may be.