OSCAR 2011 PREDICTIONS: Visual Effects

In spite of everyone's deep angers usually incurred by the Oscar nominations, mostly involving films that we didn't want to see and now must out of obligation, things still operate in a forward motion as we hurtle towards the eventually depressing ceremony. And what safer way to head into the predictions than with visual effects, which seems set predictably in stone months in advance. The fact that "The Tree of Life" isn't here clears up competition to a predictable fit for what it always has been. What are the flashiest, showiest, and most obnoxiously sparkly films in play? They don't really care about technique so much until they really have to make a decision.

The inclusion of "Hugo" just seems to be riding on a wave of buzz for it to clean up house entirely. I have considerable doubts about it, but it could very well take this and many others if it proves to be an inexplicable sweep. "Real Steel" is only here for flash points, and it does have some admittedly stylish moments, but they are amongst a great deal of nonsense going on. Even though the film would be nothing without it, it doesn't feel like they really fuel the film. It would go on without them, though not nearly as convincingly. "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2" is a mixed bag, as there are times when it is kind of pretty, but the rest of the time it just looks utterly stale and lifeless. It's not a manifestation of magic so much and computer engineering, and you can feel that.

Carpet-Bagging: Visual Effects Race Down to 15

The Oscar races are cracking down towards their endgame, with the longlist for the visual effects race finally announced. I'm not sure there are many notable absences from this list, but though it's no surprise that "Melancholia" isn't here, I personally have deeper appreciation for the visual effects in that film than sure-to-be-nominated "The Tree of Life". Yes, Lars' visuals are less "real", but that's most of what clinches them for me. But I didn't expect them to make the cut anyway, so lets move on to what is most definitely not going to end up nominated. I think we can rule out "Captain America", "Cowboys & Aliens", "Pirates", "Real Steel", "Sucker Punch", "Super 8", and "Thor".

From there I can narrow it down by axing "Sherlock Holmes", "Mission: Impossible", and "X-Men: First Class". The automatic response is "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2", "Hugo", "Rise of the Planet of the Apes", "The Tree of Life", and "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen". But again, this could all change ever so quickly. Check after the jump for the full list of potential candidates.

• Captain America: The First Avenger
• Cowboys & Aliens
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
• Hugo
• Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
• Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
• Real Steel
• Rise of the Planet of the Apes
• Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
• Sucker Punch
• Super 8
• Thor
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon
• The Tree of Life
• X-Men: First Class

Box Office Update: The "King" has Returned

So anyone with measured doubt about how much a 3D re-release of a 2D animated feature from 1995 could really bring in is scratching their heads. Hell, I'm scratching my head at how much "The Lion King 3D" made this weekend. I know that it's kind of brilliant and all, but are people really that eager to revive that classic theater-going experience? I guess that will happen when you release a beloved title that's being re-released specifically for 3D. People aren't going to be interested in seeing it in 2D. They want the entire new experience of it, so maybe I'll end up checking it out later this week. I've heard the film's not bad either.

"Contagion" would've topped the weekend if "Lion King" didn't over-perform to such a degree, instead landing in second from a 35.4% drop. "Drive" topped the rest of the new releases, though still falling to third place. What's more, the mainstream audiences really didn't like this one. Ally that to the action heavy expectations, but I'll get more into that at another time. By the time we get to "The Help", the box office is resting in low digits that garner little to no attention. "Straw Dogs" and "I Don't Know How She Does It" both earned about $5 million apiece. This weekend was a fine improvement from last weekend, but a slight downgrade from last year, when "The Town" and "Easy A" rocked the box office.

1. "The Lion King 3D" (First Weekend; $29.3 million)

2. "Contagion" (Second Weekend; $14.5 million)

3. "Drive" (First Weekend; $11 million)

4. "The Help" (Sixth Weekend; $6.4 million)

5. "Straw Dogs" (First Weekend; $5 million)

6. "I Don't Know How She Does It" (First Weekend; $4.5 million)

7. "The Debt" (Third Weekend; $2.9 million)

8. "Warrior" (Second Weekend; $2.8 million)

9. "Rise of the Apes" (Seventh Weekend; $2.6 million)

10. "Columbiana" (Fourth Weekend; $2.3 million)

Box Office Update: "Contagion" breaks competition down

The top player at the box office this weekend may lead you to believe this weekend was generous. In actuality, "Contagion" was perhaps the only real standout this weekend, with the rest withering in defeat. Soderbergh's film defeated a slump that's been dominated honorably by "The Help" for the past few weeks. Sadly, however, if it weren't for "Contagion", "The Help" would've still conquered the weekend. Despite its most substantial drop of 40%, the film still held on towards the top. Not even "Warrior" could draw in enough audiences, and its weak opening doesn't exactly inspire much confidence in it. The rest of the chart is old hat, with "Bucky Larson" thankfully not even making the top 10. This weekend was just a slight hair above last year, when the stats were pretty much exactly the same with "Resident Evil: Afterlife" in the top spot.

1. "Contagion" (First Weekend; $23.1 million)

2. "The Help" (Fifth Weekend; $8.7 million)

3. "Warrior" (First Weekend; $5.6 million)

4. "The Debt" (Second Weekend; $4.9 million)

5. "Columbiana" (Third Weekend; $4 million)

6. "Rise of the Apes" (Sixth Weekend; $3.9 million)

7. "Shark Night 3D" (Second Weekend; $3.5 million)

8. "Apollo 18" (Second Weekend; $2.9 million)

9. "Our Idiot Brother" (Third Weekend; $2.8 million)

10. "Spy Kids 4" (Fourth Weekend; $2.5 million)

Box Office Update: "Help"! Somebody! Anybody!

Does the enduring box office success of "The Help" have anything to do with how good a film it is? Maybe a little, but it's more to do with the fact that we have nothing better to do. I dismissed the lion's share of releases this weekend, and as it turns out I wasn't the only one. The only slightly positive film this weekend, "The Debt", ended up the strongest release, despite the tepid response on its Wednesday release. "Apollo 18" and "Shark Night 3D" fell just slightly behind, splitting the horror crowd down the middle. It was a very uneven weekend.

As far as long term box office goes, I'd actually say that August has been something of a success. Three films of this month have earned more than $100 million thus far. "The Smurfs" is somewhat arguable, as it premiered at the tail end of July, but it still managed $130 million throughout the month, despite terrible reviews. "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" could've been much worse than it was, so the general optimism from it has pushed it to $160 million. And "The Help" is still on the rise, currently with $118 million and climbing. This weekend was about 8% higher than last year, when "The American" arrived to undeserved critical bashing, just barely outrunning "Machete".

1. "The Help" (Fourth Weekend; $14.2 million)

2. "The Debt" (First Weekend; $9.7 million)

3. "Apollo 18" (First Weekend; $8.7 million)

4. "Shark Night 3D" (First Weekend; $8.6 million)

5. "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" (Fifth Weekend; $7.8 million)

6. "Columbiana" (Second Weekend; $7.4 million)

7. "Our Idiot Brother" (Second Weekend; $5.2 million)

8. "Don't Be Afraid of the Dark" (Second Weekend; $4.9 million)

9. "Spy Kids 4" (Third Weekend; $4.6 million)

10. "The Smurfs" (Sixth Weekend; $4 million)

Box Office Update: "Help" Takes it by Storm

I suppose the box office could've tanked a lot more than it did, given the much buzzed about hurricane making its way across the east coast. I have to say that I'm personally underwhelmed by Irene, but it'll do to keep things interesting till we get some quality films our way. For now "The Help" continues to clean up the box office field, just coming shy of $100 million. I admit to completely forgetting of its staying power until it cropped up again this morning. I was focused on the new, which isn't all that interesting.

It shouldn't be surprising that "Columbiana" dominated amongst the new releases, given its action film orientation. I'd be tempted myself if I didn't know that they probably won't be repeating "never forget where you came from" to ridiculous extent as in the trailer. "Don't Be Afraid of the Dark" was close behind, which is interesting as there isn't really a demographic for it. I guess that's why it didn't break $10 million. "Our Idiot Brother" was the lowest of the new releases, which is no surprise given it's indie reputation. Doesn't play as broadly as comedies like "Horrible Bosses". Also to no surprise, this weekend performed more than 20% down from last year. Same can be expected from next weekend.

1. "The Help" (Third Weekend; $14.3 million)
2. "Columbiana" (First Weekend; $10.3 million)
3. "Don't Be Afraid of the Dark" (First Weekend; $8.7 million)
4. "Rise of the Apes" (Fourth Weekend; $8.7 million)
5. "Our Idiot Brother" (First Weekend; $6.6 million)
6. "Spy Kids 4" (Second Weekend; $5.7 million)
7. "The Smurfs" (Fifth Weekend; $4.8 million)
8. "Conan" (Second Weekend; $3.1 million)
9. "Fright Night" (Second Weekend; $3 million)
10. "Crazy, Stupid, Love." (Fifth Weekend; $2.9 million)

Carpet-Bagging: The Big & Loud Bracket

I'm officially kicking off this official segment to discuss any and all things Oscar and awards related, as last year was very loose with its designation. I'm still not into making predictions until September is well underway. In fact, I don't feel comfortable making guesses on films I haven't had the chance to see yet. The only mildly certain bet I can place is that Alexandre Desplat will be nominated in Best Original Score again, and he will, in all likelihood, not win. As far as what I've already seen, I wouldn't say his work on "A Better Life" has much traction, but he may find an unexpected push in "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2".

In spite of my downtrodden pan of the film nearly a month ago, his score had me padding my eyes quite a few times. Unfortunately, it was whilst I was at home listening to it, wishing the film had only lived up to it. Talking of the massive blockbuster of the summer, Warner Bros. is clearly intent on a Best Picture push for their biggest cash-cow of the year. While I doubt it will get the 5% of the votes needed to secure a nomination, and sincerely hope that's the case, the film has insurmountable box office power and a frankly unbelievable critical backing to boot. It could get enough of a passionate vote to make it in.

However, I expect it to find more success in the technical categories, which I'd be so happy about if they weren't so poor this time out. Desplat's score is the best of the series, and that's the biggest recommendation I can push. However, I had nothing but contempt for the stale and obvious approach to the cinematography, and only a little less for the visual effects. They were competent most of the time, but the broomstick scenes in the Room of Requirement are the worst visual effects I've seen in the entire series. Art Direction is almost guaranteed, and it's been the film's strongest player in past years. No acting, directing, or writing accolades to be nominated here.

Box Office Update: "Help", I Need Somebody!

If I had some sort of foresight on the box office of this weekend, I'd have taken the time out of my weekend to see "Fright Night". It is unfair that that should hit below $10 million. That being said, I still won't see it, if only because I'd rather see something great instead of something merely adequate. Hell, I'm even shelling out some pity for "One Day", which maybe received too much of a critical bashing. I think people were pissed it wasn't the second coming of "An Education", and they immediately wrote it off. I certainly did, without seeing it. I doubt I'd like it too well, but I'm not a huge fan of romances.

On to the real winner of the weekend, "The Help" came out on top, having only dipped % from last weekend. I guess I was right to assume that people would flock to it. It's an extremely likable film. I could see it going on to surpass "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" at this point. The science fiction reboot isn't declining massively, but at a steady pace of which you could expect. It certainly has more staying power than some other notable blockbusters. As for the other new releases I don't really care about, obviously they were the bigger successes. "Spy Kids 4" proved most successful, a horrific crime against nature in my opinion, with "Conan" just behind it.

Of course, what could you have expected with August beginning to draw to a close. There's always been that expectation of something lesser as the most successful part of the year closes out. Next week's slate does have its work cut out for it, as there was a slight resurgence at the end of last summer with "Takers" and "The Last Exorcism". I suppose that "Columbiana", "Our Idiot Brother", and "Don't Be Afraid of the Dark" are somewhat up to the task. They're covering the market pretty well.

1. "The Help" (Second Weekend; $20.5 million)

2. "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" (Third Weekend; $16.3 million)

3. "Spy Kids 4" (First Weekend; $12 million)

4. "Conan" (First Weekend; $10 million)

5. "The Smurfs" (Fourth Weekend; $8 million)

6. "Fright Night" (First Weekend; $7.9 million)

7. "Final Destination 5" (Second Weekend; $7.7 million)

8. "30 Minutes or Less" (Second Weekend; $6.3 million)

9. "One Day" (First Weekend; $5.1 million)

10. "Crazy, Stupid, Love" (Fourth Weekend; $4.9 million)

Box Office Update: "Help" Wins Under "Rise"

If things seem somewhat tried and redundant in the coming weeks, it's frankly because there's absolutely nothing new to say. "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" looks to be the last major blockbuster of the summer, still holding the top slot for the second consecutive weekend. That wouldn't be such a major accomplishment if things had unfolded as predicted, but "The Help" was a surprisingly strong debut. Much as I hoped, audiences have been reacting to the drama positively in all corners. It certainly shows up the other debuts this weekend.

"Final Destination 5" couldn't scrape $20 million, so things may be coming to a halt for the horror franchise. "The Smurfs" continues to reap more cash than it deserves, now climbing past $100 million. "30 Minutes or Less" proved to be mostly a failure, due likely to negative reviews and some controversy over real life events. "Glee" didn't even scratch the top ten, falling at number 11 with under $6 million. Things are still generally more positive than the end of last summer, but that could change somewhat quickly.

1. "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" (Second Weekend; $27.5 million)

2. "The Help" (First Weekend; $25.5 million)

3. "Final Destination 5" (First Weekend; $18.4 million)

4. "The Smurfs" (Third Weekend; $13.5 million)

5. "30 Minutes or Less" (First Weekend; $13 million)

6. "Cowboys and Aliens" (Third Weekend; $7.6 million)

7. "Captain America" (Fourth Weekend; $7.1 million)

8. "Crazy, Stupid, Love" (Third Weekend; $6.9 million)

9. "Deathly Hallows: Part 2" (Fifth Weekend; $6.8 million)

10. "The Change Up" (Second Weekend; $6.2 million)

Film Review: "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" (**)

Well, I guess it was a bit silly to get my hopes up for something that is inherently silly in the first place. I should have stuck to my guns from my initial gut impact of the first trailer, because then this film might have been more of a revelation. As it is, I will say that "Evolution becomes Revolution" is an appropriate tagline for the film. After all, it's only truly world-changing in the fact of how much the technology has changed since its inception. It wasn't quite as awful as I had envisioned it to be previously, but the sudden jolt of positive buzz was very misleading heading into it.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes, whose title is the only one this year that needs to be grossly trimmed (outside Harry Potter perhaps), kicks off by immediately taking you out of the experience. It opens to a shot of the real jungle where the apes live, but the apes are quite obviously fake CG apes. This is perhaps the only moment in the film where you get a complete idea for how fake and silly it is, at least in a literal context. It tends to be less evident in later sequences, but things still remain kind of stupid and obviously fake.

Box Office Update: Substantial "Rise" as summer falls

I know it's strange, but I miss this site being, or at least feeling, important. Across the past few weeks I've fallen into a bit of a slump, and I am dearly sorry for that. I'm not in a very endearing or motivating environment, so that makes me feel quite often like I'd rather do nothing. So for the next few weeks leading up to September you're going to be seeing a major resurgence in activity on the site. I'm going to try to talk about something every day, even if there's nothing to talk about in the news. I'm going to get back to my roots of indulging in more trivial news for the sake of anger and enjoyable reading.

So now on to the box office, which was surging this weekend. I'll be getting to my thoughts on Rise of the Planet of the Apes soon enough, and though I'm not quite ecstatic about it, it is better than the film that debuted in this frame last year, The Other Guys. I was surprised by how well the film played with audiences, and should continue to play in the coming weeks of the summer. With little competition in its way, it could have stood out as a sleeper hit if the opening wasn't so great. It still could stick out in that way, but that's for next weekend to tell.

The rest of the box office was successful, but disappointing due to the films they belonged to. The Smurfs rose to $76 million, beating out Cowboys and Aliens after an indecisive finish last weekend. The latter film rests a gulf of $10 million behind, and that gap will only increase in the coming weeks. The Change-Up happily disappointed, with one of the lowest opening for a comedy this summer. Ryan Reynolds has not had a good summer, nor has he deserved one. Captain America still lags slightly behind Thor, but is generally positive at the present time.

Summer 2011 a disappointment?

This is pretty much the last week of the blockbuster season of this Summer that kicked off with Thor, an unassuming and seemingly silly superhero film that many wrote off within the first trailer. Admittedly, I did to. I realize how wrong I was, and in fact Thor is still the most competent blockbuster of this year. Since then things have been hardly keeping themselves afloat, at least in this viewer's opinion. I know many who were more than pleased with Super 8, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, and X-Men: First Class, even if I wasn't. Hell, I even found Captain America of all things to be a somewhat welcome and campy reprieve from all the disappointment.

And that's just scraping the surface of what the viewing public critically approved of. How can we forget about all the warranted cynicism surrounding Priest, the blatant distaste of On Stranger Tides, and the unimaginable stupidity of The Hangover: Part II. And I almost forgot to mention Green Lantern, but it managed to disgust even the most hardcore of fanboys. And (dis)honorable mentions are needed for Zookeeper, Cars 2, Bad Teacher, Horrible Bosses, and others I'm too tired to list. All this hatred makes me forget the few real successes of the year.

Remember Kung Fu Panda 2, and how it brought us the greatest supporting actor performance of the year out of the mouth of a peacock? If Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy bottoms out, unlikely as it is, I'd suggest Gary Oldman just be nominated for that. How about Bridesmaids? Absolutely hilarious for almost two straight hours, and surprising depth from Kristen Wiig of all nutty characters. And I know this isn't a common opinion, but Transformers: Dark of the Moon was the most guiltily enjoyable romp of the summer. I feel no shame in admitting my enjoyment of Bay's loud stupidity.

So the season effectively ends this weekend with Rise of the Planet of the Apes, which is about as unassuming as film as Thor was at the start of the year. Fittingly enough, both films look to feature fantastically strong leading performances from unlikely actors. Having seen just seen it now, I can say that it keeps up this summer's streak of being adequate but not at all outstanding. I'll get to that later, but I didn't hate everything about the film. In particular, one thing is truly amazing.

For Your Anticipation: We call it enrichment.

There's a lot in place to make me want to like Rise of the Planet of the Apes, and that's sadly just not going to happen. It could be attributed to the silliness of the plot, the lack of psychological resonance in the execution, or the obviousness of it all. However, that can all be boiled down to the fact that it's a part of this particular series which has never been truly spectacular, even when it was headed by Charles Heston. I'll see the film this weekend, but I don't expect it to be anything special.

Film to See in 2011: August

This will be a bit of an unorthodox edition of this monthly column, mostly due to the fact that I can't say I'm truly ecstatic about any of the films releasing this August. In any case, I'll be busy this month catching up on films I've missed out on over the past couple months. Meek's Cutoff and Tabloid are two films I'm eagerly waiting to see, and I'll be sitting down this afternoon for Crazy, Stupid, Love, so it's very much a reserved time of the year. In my opinion, it's a month too many in a Summer that has long since become redundant. Still, there are a few films probably worth checking out.

I can't say I feel anything but contempt for The Change-Up, which stacks together the repetitive Jason Bateman and the much maligned Ryan Reynolds. Rise of the Planet of the Apes has been artificially cold on the radar for quite some time. The Help honestly looks insipid, and sadly what you'd expect to see from it. 30 Minutes or Less could be fun, but it lacks the emotional core that made Zombieland enjoyable in the first place. No comment on Final Destination 5, Glee's concert film, Spy Kids 4, or Columbiana, and that's for good reason.

What's Next?: Best Actor

Closing off the performance branch of this year's nominees, there are really sparse opportunities for the Best Actor nominees to dazzle in their post-awards year. Jeff Bridges doesn't have anything set for this year, but seeing as he followed up winning the Oscar last year with being nominated this year, I think we'll forgive him for not getting right to his next project. Javier Bardem has a rather high profile nemesis for his next project: James Bond. Last we heard, Bardem was in talks to play the villain of the 23rd installment in the 007 franchise. Then again, last we heard he was also set to appear on Glee this season, and that hasn't happened yet, has it?

A young actor has to keep busy these days, so Jesse Eisenberg obviously has a few films set up for the next year or so. He's voicing the main character of the animated feature Rio, playing a supporting role in the ice cream store comedy(?) Free Samples, and playing a pizza boy who gets a bomb strapped to his chest and is forced to rob a bank in 30 Minutes or Less. Colin Firth is next appearing alongside Tom Hardy in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, but is also in talks to star with Carey Mulligan in My Fair Lady. The man has an undoubted ability to chose worthy films to work on.

James Franco has perhaps the craziest follow-up schedule for any of the nominees here, and he has already gotten a head start with a hilarious and impressive cameo in The Green Hornet. He plays the stoic and heroic brother in the fantasy-comedy Your Highness in April. He's in talks to take over Robert Downey Jr.'s role in The Great and Powerful Oz. Most intriguingly he's set to play the scientist responsible for the fall of mankind in the Planet of the Apes prequel, Rise of the Apes. I can't say that's probably going to be his best film, but I'm eagerly awaiting further news on the feature. As long as it's a prequel to the original and not the remake, I think we'll be fine.

Images (in order): Jesse Eisenberg in 30 Minutes or Less; James Franco in Your Highness