OSCAR 2011 PREDICTIONS: Best Picture

This is the absolute last race that anybody wants to talk about, because we all know inevitably what it's going to be. "The Artist" is going to win, and I still feel decidedly undecided in respects to that win. Why the hell do I feel that way? Because even though I love "The Artist" more than any other film in this category, I am still rather looking for some kind of adventurous buzz from the Oscars. I want something exciting to happen that will radiate vibes and talks to be bandied about for weeks. For several weeks, I did not have a film that I really wanted to champion. I look at the list of nine, and I honestly don't care enough about really any of them. Not even "The Artist".

Then last Friday I revisited "Moneyball", Bennett Miller's math-behind-baseball film that was well liked back in September, but lost its heat since then. It's easy to flash an indifferent eye its way, and in fact in many other situations I would. But I keep on circling back to a line that I believe defines the situation that the Academy Awards happen to be in right now. "I know these guys. I know the way they think, and they will erase us. And everything we've done here; None of it will matter." In going across every single category, I find the films that will win are never the ones I'd want. I don't have any feeling of satisfactions about the group that the Academy assembles as the best in these particular fields.

That's where I get off sore. "Moneyball" is a film that's entirely about the undervalued, and it's been greatly undervalued time and again this year. Mind you, it's far from my favorite film of the year, and in fact it didn't even crack the honorable mentions with me. I just adore the message it would send if it did win that impossible win. But I suppose I can't feel too bad about my favorite film of the bunch, "The Artist", winning on Sunday either. I just get annoyed with what they've fill the categories with this year. There is a far better group of nominees that have been criminally overlooked in this particular year. It seems so easy to make the right decision, but this year they just fouled up as hard as ever.

OSCAR 2011: My Reaction to the Academy Nods

Consider this your epic good-news-bad-news session, because a lot of people are salting their wounds with small nuggets of good tidings in this morning's Oscar nominations. We'll start from the bottom and work our way up to a crescendo of violence and anger, as per usual. As far as the shorts categories go, the only thing worth mentioning is that "La Luna", Pixar's latest short and sole nomination this year. It's nice to see that they haven't completely lost touch with their heart. However, I have no idea what got into the Doc branch's heads. I haven't even heard of most of them, and while I heard good things about "Pina", what dingus' gave the pass to "Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory"?

The Animated Feature nods embellished what I wouldn't have much of a problem catching up with, like films such as "Chico and Rita" and "A Cat in Paris". "The Adventures of Tintin" was the biggest surprise omission, as the Academy clearly doesn't consider it animation, nor should they. And I'd just like to give them a hand for not nominating "Cars 2". They could have gone wrong a great deal there, but they steered clear of that bullet. Unfortunately they also took a detour straight into a bomb. Nothing greater to report beyond "A Separation" in Foreign Language, as most worth mentioning were already discounted last week with the shortlist of nine.

AWARDS 2011: "Hugo" Leads the Oscar Nods

Well, that could have gone a great deal better, couldn't it. I'm not happy about the Oscar nominations, but I'll save the endless rant till much later today. There's much work be done here. Until then, grind out your own grievances against this slate of nods while I go off in the corner and cry for an hour.

Best Picture

"The Artist"
"The Descendants"
"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
"The Help"
"Hugo"
"Midnight in Paris"
"Moneyball"
"The Tree of Life"
"War Horse"

Box Office Update: Surge from the "Underworld"

This was a weekend of massive drops that somehow managed to keep up with the pace last weekend had set. The returning films undertook massive drops, as to be expected after a holiday weekend. The greater wealth was spread amongst the films on the opening slate. "Underworld: Awakening" was quite obviously the strongest debut, benefiting from the critics being away at Sundance, and therefore not coming in on a wave of hate. Same can be said for "Red Tails" as well, which did not fare well with critics, but did solidly with audiences. "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"s expansion yielded some small gains, but if the film fades out of mind by next week, don't be surprised. It could turn out to get a surprise heap of Oscar nods that push it to greater success, but don't count on it.

Carpet-Bagging: Before the gates open

We are in the last seconds of the pre-awards season, with the New York Film Critics Circle just on the edge of announcing their victors. We can be ready for a handful of surprises when we see exactly where the critics actually swing in their decisions. At the same time, don't be disappointed if the cards land exactly where we expect them to. The current frontrunners are still "The Artist", "The Descendants", and now effectively "War Horse". The trailer placed it as a winning and simple crowdpleaser several months ago, and even then I knew this was a lock for a nod. If you know me well enough, that also means I despised it quite fervently.

It's not that it's not pretty, but I have a much stronger pull to see the stage play and all its unique design elements than this relatively simple and straightforward exercise in spine-chilling. In the meantime, I continued my general cynicism against "The Descendants", which it's a shame when you employ such against an Alexander Payne film and not for it. I quite liked "Sideways", but I can feel the strands that were leading Payne towards this sort of conclusion. George Clooney is the frontrunner in the Best Actor race, and I doubt that's likely to deflate. Who's going to come in and steal the spotlight?

Jean Dujardin? As interesting an idea as that might be, he's pretty much just a nominee here, in the same vein as Christoph Waltz came along in 2009. He's bound to get a lot of offers after this film, and maybe one of them will bring him back around here, but he's not going to gallop away with this one. "The Artist", in the meantime, does have a strong inclination towards Best Picture, but the closer an opportunity it becomes, the less I see in it. It's really starting to seem more disingenuous a treat than the trailer lets on. 150 seconds conveys perhaps everything that the 90 minute film does, if my cynical non-viewer take on it proves fruitful enough.

So what else has shifted? Well, in case you hadn't noticed, the entire Best Picture race has skewed to becoming almost entirely sweet and obnoxiously endearing, even beyond the three frontrunners. I've already lamented about "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close", but I have even more reason to complain now that "Hugo" has entered the conversation quite boldly in comparison. That does give me pause enough to question why I didn't see it while I had the chance over Thanksgiving, but even more over the overlap of the two films' plots. They're practically the same, with the core difference being that Scorsese's film uses breathtaking technologies in a way it's not been seen before and as a tool to give tribute to the past. Stephen Daldry's film is trying to yank those tears out of your eyes in the most manipulative and predictable of ways.

"Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" Trailer

And so we have the inevitable Oscar vehicle from Stephen Daldry, who is woefully known as a contender for nearly every film he releases. He has no acknowledgeable voice in his direction, and his latest film seems like a tedious exercise in such. Curiously taking on the exact same plot as "Hugo", replacing 1920s Europe with 9/11, this looks like the feel good WTC film of the year. There is no effort made to capture the tragedy of it, aside from the fact that Tom Hanks is dead. That's pretty much it.

Carpet-Bagging: Holding out for a frontrunner

Every single year it feels like the scope of the Academy Awards becomes far more narrow in focus, and considerably less dangerous. Remember that landmark four-punch of "The Departed", "No Country for Old Men", "Slumdog Millionaire", and "The Hurt Locker"? I fear those glory days are behind us. Although I may hopefully be wrong, as there's still no clear winner as of yet. Even this time last year, "The Social Network" and "The King's Speech" were set as the ones to beat, with favor put in the latter's arena. Right now there's a lot of favor put in the arena for "The Artist" which, as charming as it looks, seems so soft and safe. Then again, I'm not entirely sure you'd expect anything else from it.

"The Descendants" too, while gaining an array of well sought adoration from Telluride audiences, is Alexandre Payne's kindest film to date, taking on a subject less cynical than he has in the past. And not to piss off any of my Hawaiian readers, but the Hawaiian locale has never been much of a compelling backdrop. I've heard plenty saying George Clooney gives his best performance to date in the film, and he will definitely be a name we hear a lot of in the months to come. It's just that I have a layer of hesitation about the film's chances when it comes to going for the win.

It does seem a tad early to talk about winners, but the race is usually over far enough before the actual telecast. "True Grit" came into the game too late to make enough news for even one win, and "Another Year" scarcely got a single nomination. Both that and its frontrunner status put "War Horse" in the position for a fall. It could be one of those things that swoops in and becomes the film of the moment, but I doubt it.