Oscar 2010 Predictions: Documentary

This is one of the blindest categories for me to judge, as I've only seen one of these films, heard a great deal about two others, and heard nothing about the remaining two. The documentary race is surely going to be one of the areas I attempt to widen my knowledge of in the coming year. I thought I'd have enough to go by this year after I saw Waiting for "Superman", which had absolutely nothing in its way at the time I saw it. It was a straight road to the Oscar, and then it just wasn't. Definitely one of the biggest shocks on nomination morning, but it doesn't throw the race into too much chaos.

In fact, the clear winner from here seems to be Banksy's Exit Through the Gift Shop. It has received some startlingly unanimous praise, and certainly surprising for a film from such fringe origins as this. The great question is who will accept the award on behalf of Banksy, if not Banksy himself. I wouldn't expect a man of such secrecy to make such a public appearance, but that'd be interesting to say the least. Inside Job seems like it's most likely to be the upset, if there indeed is one. I wouldn't say Restrepo has enough heat going for its position, and I haven't even heard of Waste Land or Gasland. I hope these predictions have been mildly helpful, but I doubt they actually have.

1. Exit Through the Gift Shop
2. Inside Job
3. Restrepo
4. Waste Land
5. Gasland

Will/Should Win: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Potential Upset: Inside Job
Should Have Been Nominated: Waiting for Superman

Awards 2010: Writer's Guild of America Winners

This week, I did something that I haven't done since late 2009. I sat down and watched Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight from start to finish. I'd seen fragments of it on television, usually during the ambitious gotham city car chase that takes place in the middle of the film. I can honestly say that I've never fully realize the full scale of Nolan's accomplishment until just now. At face value, it's a dark crime thriller with some breathtaking action set-pieces propelling it, but what always shook me to my core was that final 25 minutes. The Joker had already made it abundantly clear of his intention to show the citizens of Gotham as the murderous fiends they truly are. Ultimately what that final showdown, and what the entire film actually boils down to is the struggle to keep hope alive at whatever the cost. The stakes are made so personal by the face-off between Harvey Dent and Jim Gordon, and that menace shows how painful it is to live in a world with absolutely no hope. That was what made the film so unforgettable.

With that said, Inception is never going to come close to what that film meant and what that film did. To even suggest that is crazy, because Nolan creates a softer film with less emotional stakes. It's dazzlingly well crafted with a powerful and under-appreciated supporting turn from Marion Cotillard, but it won't be what Nolan is remembered for. Recently I have been twisting and turning at how unbearably predictable the Oscar race has become, and it's so unbearable because it's currently in favor of The King's Speech, which is quickly becoming my least favorite film of the bunch, aside from The Fighter. It's amazing how unanimous praise can expose your despise for a film.

Yet this evening we got a glimmer of hope that maybe everything isn't set in stone. Inception took home the WGA award for Best Original Screenplay, making it Nolan's first win at the prestigious awards. For the past seven years the WGA has been spot on in predicting the outcome of the race, despite the strict rules of qualification. This year, The King's Speech was cut out of the race because of such technicalities, so this could break the WGA's streak of voting so correctly. However, I manage to believe that Nolan still has a shot at the win. The message of outcry amongst the fans at Nolan's omission from Best Director has been heard, so voting for Inception could also work as a bit of damage control.

Of course Aaron Sorkin also took the obvious win for his precise screenplay for The Social Network, which has a much greater struggle for the win in Best Picture. It'll be a struggle for David Fincher to recieve his deserved Best Director win against the undeserving Tom Hooper. I feel a greater stream of optimism this evening than I have in a long time. I've adjusted my Oscar Predictions page, so check it out. The winners are listed below.

Best Original Screenplay: Inception
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Documentary Writing: Inside Job
Miniseries/TV Movie Adapted Screenplay: The Pacific
Miniseries/TV Movie Original Screenplay: The Special Relationship
Episodic Comedy: Modern Family
Episodic Drama: Mad Men
New Series: Boardwalk Empire

Awards 2010: National Society of Film Critics

It's not really spreading the wealth if you mention the runners-up in the category, but I guess these precursors just wanted to give the losers the illusion that they just barely lost out. That's not really the case, because the rankings don't give any idea how big the gap in between may be, and it only makes people feel worse in any case. Ignoring the runners-up, The Social Network took away the most wins with the NSFC, and Olivia Williams (The Ghost Writer) continues to be an outside contender that we can dream will be nominated for the Oscars, but the odds are still against her.

Best Picture: "The Social Network"
Runner-up: "Carlos"
Second runner-up: "Winter's Bone"

Awards 2010: New York Film Critics Circle

It would be an extremely frustrating week if I was constantly reporting on all the critic awards at once, so I'm going to let them trickle onto my site over the next few days, rather than let them all in at once. I actually needed the New York Film Critics Circle's choices after that unfortunate little spat I had at the BFCA's nominations yesterday. Many of the wins were rather routine, but Colin Firth was able to nail out a win, and The Kids Are All Right got some more proper consideration. I think Best Screenplay may have been a stretch, but I'm still glad it happened. And since I'm striving for pictures, here's one from the Best Foreign Film choice, Carlos.

Best Film: The Social Network
Best Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Best Actress: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Best Screenplay: The Kids Are All Right
Best Cinematography: Black Swan
Best Animated Feature: The Illusionist
Best Documentary: Inside Job
Best Foreign Language Film: Carlos

Oscar 2010: 15 Films Qualify for Best Documentary Feature

It really seems like the year is beginning to draw to a close, as we now have the list of films eligible for the Oscar for Documentary Feature. Now, of all the categories of this year's Oscars, you can't really expect too much coverage from me on this one. I'm sorry, but I'd just be out of my league to say that I even have a clue where to start. Of all these films, the only one I'll probably see is Waiting for "Superman". Anyway, here's the list for you.

- Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer
- Enemies of the People
- Exit through the Gift Shop
- Gasland
- Genius Within: The Inner Life of Glenn Gould
- Inside Job
- The Lottery
- Precious Life
- Quest for Honor
- Restrepo
- This Way of Life
- The Tillman Story
- Waiting for "Superman"
- Waste Land
- William Kunstler: Disturbing the Universe

2010 Gotham Awards Nominees Announced

The awards season has begun, whether any of us is ready or not. It's a lot more taxing and time consuming for me than it is for you. The Gotham Awards has announced their nominations, and it almost easy to forget that this was a spectacular year for independent films. There are certainly a few films I haven't heard of, mostly in the Documentary category. For the most part though, I'm surprised to find myself engaged by these nominations. I'm happy that Let Me In was given representation, small though it is. However, The Kids Are All Right and Winter's Bone are the true spotlight for these nominations.

As for my predictions on who will come out on top, I'm putting The Kids Are All Right on top for both Best Feature and Best Ensemble Performance. Until the fall season, that was my favorite film of the year. If only because it's the only one I've heard of, I'm putting Inside Job on top for Best Documentary. Breakthrough Director is a complete wild card, for who can say who will win. Finally, though Greta Gerwig's turn in Greenberg was my favorite thing about the film, Breakthrough Actress is going to go to Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone. It may reignite Oscar potential for her once again. Take a look at the nominees, and make your own predictions in the comment section.

Best Feature
Black Swan
Blue Valentine
The Kids Are All Right
Let Me In
Winter’s Bone

Best Documentary
12th & Delaware
Inside Job
The Oath
Public Speaking
Sweetgrass

Best Ensemble Performance
The Kids Are All Right
Life During Wartime
Please Give
Tiny Furniture
Winter’s Bone

Breakthrough Director
John Wells, (The Company Men)
Kevin Asch, (Holy Rollers)
Glenn Ficarra and John Requa, (I Love You Phillip Morris)
Tanya Hamilton, (Night Catches Us)
Lena Dunham, (Tiny Furniture)

Breakthrough Actor
Prince Adu (Prince of Broadway)
Ronald Bronstein, (Daddy Longlegs)
Greta Gerwig, (Greenberg)
Jennifer Lawrence, (Winter’s Bone)
John Ortiz, (Jack Goes Boating)