Oscar Park: "Take Shelter" & "50/50"

This weekend had two films with moderate Oscar chances come out, but neither one has that many chances to merit a post of their own, so here we are. Obviously the more apparent of the two is "Take Shelter", which got strong reactions out of Cannes, and has continued that through this weekend. Michael Shannon is obviously the main talking point here, and the Academy has had a notable fancy for him in the past. I'd be particularly shocked if he didn't make it for this one. The other potential candidate for the film would be Jessica Chastain, who has too many films this year to dial out of the conversation.

I suppose the conversation could dwell between this, "The Help", and "The Tree of Life", but how the hell are we going to get people to rally under a single one of those? "50/50", on the other hand, has only one possibility in the cards, and that's for Joseph Gordon-Levitt. With heavyweights like Michael Shannon in the pot, how much of an impact can he really make? True, the odds are considerably against him, but don't write him off so immediately. If nothing else, you can expect some sort of Golden Globes traction. Unless Robert Downey Jr. steals it away from him for "Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows". I kind of doubt it, though.

"Take Shelter"

Strong Possibilities: Best Actor (Michael Shannon)

Potential Causes: Best Supp. Actress (Jessica Chastain)

"50/50"

Potential Causes: Best Actor (Joseph Gordon-Levitt)

Oscar Park: "Moneyball"

Sorry I've been so ridiculously behind the beat this week. It's just been one of those weeks when you think you're more consumed by work than you actually are. As such, expect something a bit more regular and well grounded this week than in past weeks. It's hard to get a sturdy working schedule when things are still shifting around you. And I have to get caught up on the Oscar prognostication, which shouldn't be too hard seeing as little has actually changed. Things haven't gone considerably up or down. They're just slowly molding. "Moneyball" has been the latest addition to the fray, though I have reservations on its chances.

Oscar Park: "Drive"

Seeing as 'Carpet-Bagging' is more speculative than concrete, I thought it appropriate to expand things a fair degree. Or, I just wanted another chance to talk about "Drive" in a different respect, and I couldn't find any better way to do it. "Drive" has had plenty of us talking about its merits, and I hold a strong position of restrained adoration for Refn's film. I see the slight cracks in the pavement, but I still fell head over heels for the extra-sensory, semi-psychological musical/superhero/fairytale/action/drama cacophony that the cast and crew were miraculously able to pull off. But, what about the Academy?

Many ignorantly assume that any film they thought was brilliant or deeply affecting is a surefire candidate for Best Picture. I think it's clear that "Drive" has few chances to really break into this year's Oscar races. Best Picture? Forgedaboudit! Not their type Best Director? Not a chance. Refn has never had a focus on that, and he probably still doesn't. Best Actor? Sadly enough, Gosling has better chances with "The Ides of March", which I refuse to call a top Oscar player or a dud. Best Supporting Actor? Now we're talking, as Albert Brooks has had strong buzz going for months, and now that we've seen his performance, we're just waiting on those first critics awards for confirmation.