OSCAR 2011 PREDICTIONS: Lead Actor

Moving on to much bigger strokes, the main races always seem to be the most easily predicted, because they've had the most attention in terms of precursors. I suppose it's just knowing to pay attention to the right precursors. I wouldn't consider the Golden Globes as such, which is one advisement in why I expect George Clooney won't win. Sure, he has the favor of plenty precursors, but I believe it will most surely go to SAG winner Jean Dujardin. That's likely the most important precursor to have under your belt, and he should slide into it like a clean glove.

Now, if Gary Oldman ended up pulling out a surprise win, which I and everyone else is hoping for, that would be great. Not going to happen, but it would undeniably be a move in the right direction. The other two contenders are pretty much there to make the category look a little bit prettier. Demian Bichir, in my opinion, has little right in really being there, and it doesn't really throw in the right spice of difference. If they wanted that, they'd have gone with their senses and voted up Michael Fassbender for "Shame". I am happy to see Brad Pitt here, to a degree. Why not? He's another strong piece of "Moneyball", and though I thought his better work was in "The Tree of Life", I suppose it's nice to have him here.

Open Thread: If YOU Had An Oscar Ballot...

Well, up to this point, I've done my part to make my position on this Sunday's Academy Awards clear. I've said what will win in comparison to what obviously should win, minus the two categories I'm covering tomorrow and Sunday. Now it's your turn, and I don't want you to go ahead and pick what everyone expects to win. I want you to honestly say what you think is going to win in the comments section. That's the one purpose of this post. To see what you'd like to win. The nominations in each category can be seen on the predictions page.

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Lead Actor

By now it's an undisputed fact that Colin Firth's performance in The King's Speech is the best of 2010, and there's no denying that fact. It almost makes it difficult to accept that in a race this clean, but Firth really deserves it. I think he probably deserved it more for his role in A Single Man last year, but better for him to receive recognition now than to never receive it at all. And what of the rest of the field? They could be mere flies on a windshield up against Firth, but they're actually pretty close and fantastic performances in my opinion. The only one I can't comment on is Javier Bardem, because, like many Americans out there, I still haven't seen Biutiful. I know. I'm a massive failure.

Probably the actor who I truly wish was nominated this year was Aaron Eckhart for Rabbit Hole, and I ride on the same current as most people. Nicole Kidman is great in that film, but I found that the rollercoaster heart of the piece was Eckhart's rigorous emotionality. Instead, Jeff Bridges was nominated for True Grit, and I'm only slightly not okay with that. I think his performance in the film was great, and I almost got to wishing he would win this year and Firth had won last year. What stopped me was that this really isn't the main attraction. This is a supporting performance meant to serve Hailee Steinfeld's leading work as Mattie Ross. I also kind of wish Matt Damon was nominated for his work as Labeouf, but that is undisputably supporting in any case, and the supporting branch is packed as it is.

A month back, I would've said that Jesse Eisenberg was going to steal the gold from Colin Firth, and my reason for that was that he was gaining some traction in the critics awards, and if there's any performance that impressed as much as Firth's, it was Eisenberg's in The Social Network. Nobody would have thought that the Michael Cera look alike would have so much to offer, but he really hit it out of the park in a way that nobody expected, even after they'd seen the film. If Firth didn't have this locked up, I'd say Eisenberg would be the one to steal it. The actor I kind of pegged as the underdog was actually James Franco. Before I saw 127 Hours, I felt like it was a bit overblown. I couldn't have been more wrong, because Franco does deliver some brave work as Aron Ralston, and manages to translate his journey emotionally. That's the best an actor can aspire to.

1. Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
2. Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
3. James Franco (127 Hours)
4. Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
5. Javier Bardem (Biutiful)

Will & Should Win: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Potential Upset: Are you serious? No way!

Should Have Been Nominated: Aaron Eckhart (Rabbit Hole)