OSCAR 2011 PREDICTIONS: Lead Actor

Moving on to much bigger strokes, the main races always seem to be the most easily predicted, because they've had the most attention in terms of precursors. I suppose it's just knowing to pay attention to the right precursors. I wouldn't consider the Golden Globes as such, which is one advisement in why I expect George Clooney won't win. Sure, he has the favor of plenty precursors, but I believe it will most surely go to SAG winner Jean Dujardin. That's likely the most important precursor to have under your belt, and he should slide into it like a clean glove.

Now, if Gary Oldman ended up pulling out a surprise win, which I and everyone else is hoping for, that would be great. Not going to happen, but it would undeniably be a move in the right direction. The other two contenders are pretty much there to make the category look a little bit prettier. Demian Bichir, in my opinion, has little right in really being there, and it doesn't really throw in the right spice of difference. If they wanted that, they'd have gone with their senses and voted up Michael Fassbender for "Shame". I am happy to see Brad Pitt here, to a degree. Why not? He's another strong piece of "Moneyball", and though I thought his better work was in "The Tree of Life", I suppose it's nice to have him here.

2012 Nitrate Awards

Consider this my personal superlatives list, but I need to nail the coffin on 2011 beyond any reasonable doubt before moving on to the task at hand of Oscar coverage. It's been a long first week of this year, and that's not been hastened by any piece of news. I don't quite feel the progression of this year yet, but that may be what happens when a film like "The Devil Inside" premieres at the start of the year. So I have no hesitation in going back to more pleasant times as the end of last year.

BEST PICTURE: "Meek's Cutoff"

BEST DIRECTOR: Nicolas Winding Refn ("Drive")

Further Thoughts: I think there's little debating the directorial power that Refn had over this vehicle, having been given the keys to the kingdom by Ryan Gosling. This could have easily turned out any number of ways, and if it weren't for Nicolas Winding Refn at the lead, it wouldn't have become the beautiful, creative, shocking being it is now. You can't chock that up to any other director this year.

BEST ACTOR: Tom Cullen & Chris New ("Weekend")

Further Thoughts: Even if some miracle were to occur that put both these actors in this Oscar category this year, it'd be damn near impossible for either of them to win, because it's impossible to choose between either one of them. Both display copious amounts pent up vigor and expressiveness, despite being as new to the circuit as they are, and I couldn't hand that to any one actor in this category. The only one that comes close is Gary Oldman, who takes shotgun this time around.

BEST ACTRESS: Juliette Binoche ("Certified Copy")

Further Thoughts: I'm not sure what I could say for Binoche at this point. She's already won an Oscar, be it for a performance that was cuter than it was fascinating. Indeed she still has all that cuteness here, but she is working well overtime on the layers and specificities in this character as enigmatic as Ryan Gosling's similarly nameless protagonist this year. It's a role anybody would kill for, and Binoche both strives to understand and manages to have fun with it.