THEN AND NOW: Supporting Actor & Actress

It's no secret, especially since the rather long leave of silence on the site, that I am just not loving this Oscar season anymore. I'm not sure if I ever was. Of course, there are some races that have me quite invested in the outcome, as always, but they are few. And I kept feeling like I had to explain why this year was a low point in the Academy history, though that should be perfectly obvious. The Academy has lost their teeth, which is no huge news, but even more than that, they've lost their sense of spontaneity. For the first time in a while, I am kind of wishing Brett Ratner and Eddie Murphy had stayed. Why? Because the moment they strolled off, this year became extremely safe. The quick choices of Brian Grazer and Billy Crystal to fill in was the first sign.

So it seems so fitting to compare this year to last year in terms of who made the cut for the nominations. This year, it doesn't really matter who the other four nominations are, as we all know it's going to be Christopher Plummer for Best Supporting Actor. I touched on this a bit a while back, but this year's slate of Supporting Actor competitors is extremely soft. I know everyone is pissed off that Jonah Hill made it, but he honestly isn't the worst of evils. In "Moneyball", he is admittedly kind of good. If nothing else, he has shown that he has a possible future in the way of dramatic roles. Does he deserve a nomination for just showing that he has potential. Absolutely not.

Oscar 2010 Predictions: Supporting Actress

Not nearly the most difficult race to predict, but also not a walk in the park. This was really a banner year for supporting female performances, and in fact more so than lead female performances. You can tell by the sheer amount of talent that wasn't nominated here, and yet should have been. Mila Kunis was did a fantastic job with what she was given in Black Swan, but the supporting gal that really stole the show for me was Barbara Hershey as Nina's overbearing mother. It's really one of the most tragic performances of the year, embodying somebody who reluctantly gave up her own career to become a mother, and as such is now realizing how she hasn't prepared her daughter properly for the real world. When she's looking up at Nina at the close of the film, you can see it in her eyes.

I could go on about Rooney Mara's stellar-but-short performance in The Social Network, Marion Cotillard's fascinating, multifaceted, and underrated work in Inception, or Mia Wasikowska's sweet and fragile overlooked performance in The Kids Are All Right, but I pretty much just summed them up in a run-on sentence. If there's any actress nominated here who is undeserving of any recognition, it is Helena Bonham Carter for The King's Speech. Don't get me wrong, because I've loved plenty of her past work, but she's the plainest and most uninteresting of the big three characters in the film. You can tell that from the clothing she wears, and you can tell that from her performance. I much preferred her latest turn as Bellatrix Lestrange in Deathly Hallows: Part 1.

I still haven't seen Animal Kingdom, for which Jacki Weaver is nominated, and I've been putting it off because the only ads for the film have been showing off this creepy and demented image of her. Maybe that's one of the big appeals of it, but I'll have to check it out sometime before this Sunday. Amy Adams is up for her work in The Fighter, which almost immediately appealed to me after I saw it. I gather that that's the way it was for most people, because she had such a trashy-yet-sexy attitude about her that seemed pretty authentic, and most people could imagine a girl like that in their neighborhood.

The big fight is between Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit and Melissa Leo for The Fighter, and I've been pretty one-sided for most of this race. At the end of last year, I absolutely loved Steinfeld's brave and beautiful performance, and I still believe that she's the best actress in contention here. However, as for the person who I believe will win and absolutely deserves to win, I have to go with Melissa Leo for The Fighter. After going back to the film, she's really got that ferocity and expression that almost matches her up with Bale's work. That's not even to mention the work she's done in the past. She's been unrewarded for so long, and that should end on Sunday night. If not, then she'll turn in another bravura performance and we'll be right back here again.

1. Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
2. Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
3. Amy Adams (The Fighter)
4. Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
5. Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)

Will & Should Win: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Potential Upset: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Should Have Been Nominated: Barbara Hershey (Black Swan) OR Rooney Mara (The Social Network) OR Marion Cotillard (Inception) OR Mia Wasikowska (The Kids Are All Right)

What's Next?: Best Supporting Actress

The Oscar nominations were announced Tuesday, and they brought the same serving of unusual surprises that we expect from them. I've already gone over what I happy and disappointed about, so that's not what this series is about. This is looking beyond the night of the ceremony and into the horizon at what the actors, actresses, writers, and directors will be doing in the coming months. It's a tad bit difficult, because the actors don't always make plans right away. For the most part, however, they usually have one or two films already down the pike for that year.

Amy Adams, nominated for the role of Charlene in The Fighter, has two films ahead of her this year, but both radically different in approach. One is a supporting role in On the Road, a film about a young man setting out on the roads and railways of America. The film is directed by Walter Salles (The Motorcycle Diaries), and written by Jose Rivera (Letter to Juliet). Without having seen any footage from the film, I doubt that I'll be standing in line to see it. On the other hand, Adams is also starring alongside Jason Segal (Forgetting Sarah Marshall) in the highly-anticipated family film, The Muppets. She's not likely to grab another nomination anytime soon, but she's got a pretty solid post-Oscar plan ahead of her.

Helena Bonham Carter has only one film to look forward to this year, but seeing as it's Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, I don't think she'll be too torn up over it. Melissa Leo always keeps a packed schedule of films each year, which could potentially aid in her getting another nomination this year. For one thing, she's got the Kevin Smith horror feature Red State on the way, even if it'll take a hell of a long time to get here. She's appearing in the title role of a mystery project called Francine, and taking a starring role in another mystery project called Seven Days in Utopia from first time director Matt Russell. No word on if there's any relation whatsoever to The Fighter director David O. Russell, but I wouldn't count on it

The other two actresses in the category don't yet have anything on the table in the foreseeable future, although I suspect Hailee Steinfeld should be getting an offer or two once she wins the Academy Award next month. The fifth slot was a competition between Mila Kunis and Jacki Weaver, and the latter was the ultimate victor. Though it's not quite related, Kunis is next slotted to appear in Friends with Benefits, the Black Swan twin of Portman's No Strings Attached. As for Jacki Weaver, we have no idea what she's doing next, but there are some ideas out there.

Images (In Order): Melissa Leo in Red State; Amy Adams in The Muppets