Oscar 2010 Predictions: Supporting Actor

We live in a world of good and bad, and it almost seems as if we spend so much time defining the line between those two that we forget about the line between good and great. That's my biggest problem with this year's Oscar race, and I doubt that I'm alone on this one. I had so much overwhelming trouble compiling a list of last year's best, not only because I hadn't seen everything, but because there were so few truly great films. Not to mention the fact that at the time I was compiling my list, I hadn't made the important revelations that didn't occur until we reached this Oscar race. This Oscar season has really shaped me more critically than any other in recent memory, and that's the biggest complement I can give it.

So, you can stand to reason that all of the performances in the Best Supporting Actor category are good, but can we really say that they're all great? I hardly believe that to be the case, especially since one of my favorite supporting performances of the year wasn't even nominated here, and I'm not speaking of Andrew Garfield's sweet and sympathetic performance in The Social Network. I'm talking about Vincent Cassel's finely cut performance in Black Swan as the intense ballet director and Nina's romantic fancy. Almost every character in the film is two-sided, which offers only the greatest performances.

As for what is nominated, I can't say all are deserving to be here, and the one I find my mind coming back to constantly is Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech. I know he used to be the frontrunner, but he just lacks the extra depth that's needed to go above and beyond. If there's anybody who's going to steal the top prize from the preferred winner, it will be him, but undeservedly so. Similarly, Jeremy Renner did a fantastic job with what he was given in The Town, and he just bordered on being truly great. The role was there, and he was there, but something benign just seems to be holding him back a bit.

So who is nominated here and deserves to be here? For one thing, I still feel Mark Ruffalo's character in The Kids Are All Right was given a melancholic and half-fulfilled ending, which is really perfect for the performance he gave. It's really fascinating in that less-is-more sort of way, and Ruffalo has always excelled in such subtleties. John Hawkes is my #2 pick for this category, and he emphasizes everything I loved about Winter's Bone, with the gruff exterior shrouding a wearied heart underneath. He's sadly not going to win this year, which adds to my hopes that he really pulls out all the stops in Martha Marcy May Marlene.

This category simply belongs to Christian Bale this year, and it's almost an act of apology after the Academy snubbing him all these years. It's unfortunate that he hasn't received a nomination until now, but it's great that he's set to receive his first win this year. He always falls completely into these roles, from every expression and every breathe, and it almost always feels unique to that specific character. This is one of those instances, and when Bale's playing a coked up former-wrestler whose fame is widely debatable, as is the case in The Fighter, you're going to deal with some crazy emotions. Bale matches those perfectly, as he almost always does.

1. Christian Bale (The Fighter)
2. John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
3. Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
4. Jeremy Renner (The Town)
5. Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

Will & Should Win: Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Potential Upset: Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

Should Have Been Nominated: Vincent Cassel (Black Swan)