Box Office Report: "Brave" changes its fate

Just a general rule to keep in mind when predicting box office success: Do not play down expectations ever. True, there are situations in which films like "Rock of Ages" and "That's My Boy" don't perform as well as people expect they normally would. There are also situations in which we're predicting a fantasy action film starring Kristen Stewart will only earn $30 million its opening weekend, or that a Dreamworks animation flick will suddenly disappoint just when kids are getting out of schools. So when Pixar, a company that specializes in films that appeal to both children and adults, debuts a heartfelt new feature, do not play down the odds of success!

I don't often play up the film's quality in relation to box office, but "Brave" is consistently hilarious, amazingly beautiful, and brought some real tears to my eyes towards the finish. For those qualities, I think people are almost certain to spread some positive word on this film, possibly returning for a second go in theaters. Given those facts, I think we could project a similar trajectory as "Cars" took back in 2006, possibly going on to achieve $250 by the time it finishes up. It has three weeks until another animated film enters the market, which should be plenty time for it to build its case against "Madagascar 3". In any case, Pixar probably has a genuine success on their hands with this one.

Speaking of "Madagascar 3", the film kept an admirable hold at the box office against Pixar's latest, though now that there's a much better alternative for kid crowds we might see its strength taper off greatly in coming weeks. "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" had quite the miserable weekend, with audiences either steering clear or figuring out why they should have. "Seeking a Friend for the End of the World" crapped out altogether, sadly enough for the Focus Feature... comedy? That lack of knowledge in marketing may be the problem. Ultimately this weekend was $10 million shy of last year, when "Bad Teacher" boosted the weekend ruled by "Cars 2" up a notch financially.

1. "Brave" (First Weekend; 66.7 million)

2. "Madagascar 3" (Second Weekend; $20.2 million; $157.6 MILLION TOTAL)

3. "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" (First Weekend; $16.5 million)

4. "Prometheus" (Third Weekend; $10 million; $108.5 MILLION TOTAL)

5. "Rock of Ages" (Second Weekend; $8 million; $28.8 MILLION TOTAL)

6. "Snow White and the Huntsman" (Fourth Weekend; $8 million; $137.1 MILLION TOTAL)

7. "That's My Boy" (Second Weekend; $7.9 million; $28.2 MILLION TOTAL)

8. "The Avengers" (Eighth Weekend; $7 million; $598.3 MILLION TOTAL)

9. "Men in Black 3" (Fifth Weekend; $5.6 million; $163.3 MILLION TOTAL)

10. "Seeking a Friend for the End of the World" (First Weekend; $3.8 million)

Weekend Forecast: The odds be ever in "Brave"s favor

It surprises me that people are estimating a smaller than usual opening for "Brave". It seems rather illogical for three reasons, the first being the fact that it's a kids flick. After "Madagascar 3"s strong opening, it seems ridiculous to expect it to do any less than $61 million. The second strong aspect is Pixar's recognizable staple, which secures in a large sect of people enamored with Pixar films. The third factor, and I may be overestimating this, is "The Hunger Games". Similarities alone factor it a strong boost, especially in this year. I think a $70+ million opening is close to a certainty. If "Cars 2" can get $60 million with bad reviews and negative buzz, "Brave" will be fine with its solid reviews.

The competitors have a much riskier time this weekend, particularly "Seeking a Friend for the End of the World". The Keira Knightley and Steve Carell rom-com has been particularly low on the buzz meter, especially considering it's about the apocalypse. I guess that isn't so much of a draw right now, but it's just had a silent marketing campaign, killing any wider potential the film has. "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" at least has the heat of male hype to fuel it, and I wouldn't be surprised if it got to $25 million this weekend. I just don't expect it to.

"Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" Teaser Trailer

I'm still abstaining from trailers, so from here on out, I'll give my brother's interpretations: Its a quick teaser so I'll give it a second chance, but until then, it looks campy in a bad way. Like "Jonah Hex", but without Megan Fox. So, yeah. I'll count that as an advisement to avoid. "Wanted" was style over substance, and it sounds like "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" is a lot of the same from Timur Bekmambatov.