OSCAR 2011 PREDICTIONS: Lead Actor

Moving on to much bigger strokes, the main races always seem to be the most easily predicted, because they've had the most attention in terms of precursors. I suppose it's just knowing to pay attention to the right precursors. I wouldn't consider the Golden Globes as such, which is one advisement in why I expect George Clooney won't win. Sure, he has the favor of plenty precursors, but I believe it will most surely go to SAG winner Jean Dujardin. That's likely the most important precursor to have under your belt, and he should slide into it like a clean glove.

Now, if Gary Oldman ended up pulling out a surprise win, which I and everyone else is hoping for, that would be great. Not going to happen, but it would undeniably be a move in the right direction. The other two contenders are pretty much there to make the category look a little bit prettier. Demian Bichir, in my opinion, has little right in really being there, and it doesn't really throw in the right spice of difference. If they wanted that, they'd have gone with their senses and voted up Michael Fassbender for "Shame". I am happy to see Brad Pitt here, to a degree. Why not? He's another strong piece of "Moneyball", and though I thought his better work was in "The Tree of Life", I suppose it's nice to have him here.

WILL WIN: Jean Dujardin ("The Artist")

COULD WIN: George Clooney ("The Descendants")

SHOULD WIN: Gary Oldman ("Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy")

SHOULD REALLY WIN: Tom Cullen and Chris New ("Weekend") in an impossible tie.

PERSONAL RANKING:

1. Gary Oldman ("Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy")

2. Jean Dujardin ("The Artist")

3. Brad Pitt ("Moneyball")

4. George Clooney ("The Descendants")

5. Demian Bichir ("A Better Life")